nig analysis

The National Intelligence Council Report   It all started on January 15, 2005, at a conference of academic and non-governmental experts on Africa, convened by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), where the Mapping of Sub-Sahara Africa was published. In that conference, the most important message delivered by the conferees was that even in this age of globalization, local factors will determine Africa’s fate. These local factors include religiously inspired terrorism, sharing of revenue accrued from hydrocarbon sales, corruption etc. The report was categorical that Africa’s oil producing states, and a handful of other African countries committed to governance reforms have the best chance of attracting international investment needed to compete and survive. However, other African countries, including some failed states, plagued by poor leadership, divisive ethnic politics, decayed government institutions, geographic constraints may be unable to engage the international economy sufficiently to reverse their downward trajectory.   What has made that report famous was the postulation that Nigeria, will be balkanized in 2015, considering the following factors: African countries, especially West Africa, will of course be exposed to the downside of globalization. Corruption will pose a major challenge to African countries. If Angola, Nigeria and Sudan – three of Africa’s largest and most important countries – actually began to use their revenues from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger economically and impact the region. The outright collapse of Nigeria due to combinations of the stated factors. Nigeria has been the focus of this report, with many condemning the report as false. The NIC is a think-tank that analyses global events and map out the likely future of different regions of the world. In 2005, the level of patriotism was higher than what it is today, but Nigerians were not unaware of the fact that their leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave. They are aware that there are possibilities that the precarious equilibrium in Abuja could be disrupted. In straight terms, all dislike the marriage of many tribes and tongues, but are very dependent on the hydrocarbon revenue, that keeps the country together. Another fear was that, if Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West Africa region. A failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years. This report became so famous that a lot of Nigerians were actually looking forward to the year 2015. Nigeria was likened to a trailer that was speeding down-hill, without breaks or shock-absorbers; and no effort was being made to stop the slide. Politicians were making incendiary statements and everyone was ready for the D-day.  Being an election year, the report became a point of reference for many. Instead of an upturn in the economy, the billions of dollars generated from hydrocarbon sales were being stolen and squandered. Corruption was rife and Nigeria occupied its place of pride as the No. 1 most corrupt country, on the Global Corruption Perception Index. As the general election of 2015 approached, many politicians evacuated their families overseas, afraid of the chaos and anticipated violence that will occur when the results of the elections are announced. Multi-national companies, especially in the oil and gas sectors were withholding their investments until after the elections. This greatly affected the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which dropped from $1381.06m in July 2014 to 624.87m in July 2015. The world was holding its breath for Nigeria, unsure of what the outcome will be. The campaign was fierce, between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by President Goodluck Jonathan (from the minority Niger Delta, who was seeking re-election) and a new coalition of smaller parties, the All Progressive Congress (APC), led by retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari (a Fulani and former Head of State from the North). Buhari  conducted a campaign of fighting corruption. Many were in support of that objective but were never sincere about fighting corruption. Intelligence reports were indicating that if the PDP wins, there will be a blood-bath across the country. This was because of some ethno-religious factors that have already started to play out during the election campaigns. A national catastrophe was averted when Goodluck Jonathan, did the uncommon act in African politics, by making a phone-call to his APC opponent, Buhari, conceding victory. That singular act was like a long expected torrent of rain on a baked arid desert soil.  Many analysts congratulated themselves that the NIC doomsday forecast on Nigeria has been finally proven wrong. Hopes were rising that Nigeria was back on track and by December 2015, FDI scaled up to $1213.98m. By the first and second quarter of 2016, the discordant voices started and this time with very high tempo. Companies were skeptical. The Naira was losing value, as the price of oil dived to an all-time low of $30 per barrel in the international market. Things were not changing with the rapidity that was expected. Kidnapping became a national past-time. Brain drain was climbing up the scale. Many Nigerian youths, in their attempt to look for greener pastures, crossed the Sahara Desert and many drowned in the Mediterranean Sea while crossing into Europe. People started realizing that there is nothing to gain in this marriage that they have been forced into by Lord Frederick Lugard in 1914. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) sustained their agitations for a sovereign state. The new APC government threw in a lot of resources to weaken the insurgency in the North-East by Boko Haram. Their attempt at establishing a Caliphate in the North-Eastern region of the country was crushed. However, the more than 200 school girls kidnapped by Boko Haram were still not rescued.  Many militant groups started emerging in the Niger Delta. In the fore-front is the Niger Delta Avengers, who felt that the oil producing areas of the Niger Delta is being taken for a ride, without any meaningful development in the area. By 2017, the Arewa Youths Movements came out with the