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GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

CORRUPTION, CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, Nigeria, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

PRE-ELECTION PERIOD: AN ARENA FOR CIVIL UNREST IN NIGERIA

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Since Nigeria attained independence in 1960, violence attributed to political, ethnic and social conflicts of varying levels has been a major trend often affiliated with pre-election periods. Electoral violence across the country can be described as a distinctive and poignant strategy to limit the impact of rival parties while aiming to control the voter demographic. The unrest mainly driven by economic and social issues would trigger dissatisfaction from one or more political groups as well as agitations from citizens impacted by unfavorable conditions such as unemployment, poor governance, inflation and rampant corruption scandals increasing the likelihood of violence in the country. Studies showed that 9.8% of the 265 total civil unrest cases were attributed to electoral violence while the 346 recorded fatalities from civil unrest cases across the 6 geopolitical zones of the country was an accumulation of data before and after the 23 February 2019 Presidential Election. Reports indicate state elections were also regarded as more violent and deadly than federal elections. This aligned with threats of insecurity which were predominant in the Southern and Northern parts of the country, with the most dangerous areas being. Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Benue, Bayelsa, Lagos, Kogi, Ogun and Kano. On the other hand, Rivers, Taraba, Delta and Abia states recorded the highest number of election-related violence. In Nigeria, the main reasons for the increase in insecurity during the election period have been connected to the profitable nature of politics and the well-known fact of affluence embedded in political positions. There are also claims that terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates have high stakes in the processes of the electoral system as electoral governance is believed to be susceptible to external coercion or manipulation. The consistency in claims of infractions from past elections raises alarm for the safety of citizens in the upcoming  February and March 2023 elections. During the ongoing campaign and election period, an upsurge in violence has already been reported, with abduction cases on the rise and ethnic, targeted politically motivated attacks, and social violence taking center stage. From IPOB militants in the South to ISWAP terrorists in the northern zone, the fragile nature of the country’s security status poses a threat to peaceful and fair elections. Furthermore, the spike in violence may impact the polls as fear of civil unrest may cause low-voter turnout in various polling stations across Nigeria, creating a conducive environment for altering and influencing the election results. A security crisis within any given country tends to divert attention from the primary focus of higher voter turnout and transparent elections. The unending cycle of violence is one of the recurring features of electoral history that necessitates the involvement of government security forces and governing bodies to invest in programs and initiatives that factor in conflict management initiatives while limiting the power of organized political vigilantism. These initiatives may serve as a precautionary method that could mitigate risks in the upcoming federal election  scheduled for 13 March 2022 and ongoing state elections.  

CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria, Reports

THE RACE TOWARDS 2023: PART 1

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It has been more than 7 years since the watershed presidential election in 2015, when the then opposition, All Progressives Congress (APC), defeated the incumbent, People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Since then, a lot has happened, particularly since many hopes and aspirations for the APC-led government to provide a secure environment and maintain a stable economy have been met with the unsatisfactory and uninspiring leadership of President Buhari’s administration, which has been plagued by an unstable economy and multifaceted security challenges. It is amidst this milieu that another election is upon us. The hyper-politicking this year has been glaring, chiefly because it precedes an election year. Nigeria is poised to witness among politicians; alliances, counter-alliances, mudslinging, back-stabbing, rumor mongering, intense propaganda, name-dropping, influence-peddling, cross-carpeting, and horse-trading. This happening would be no doubt intriguing but diversionary because governance takes a back seat. The APC, since its formation in 2014 as a merger comprising ACN, CPC, ANPP, and a faction of APGA, has performed poorly in managing electoral successes and internal crises. The party recently held its intrigue-ridden convention in which there was a blatant abuse of the term “consensus”. Candidates grudgingly stepped down from what was an imposition. The upcoming primary elections cannot be conducted in the same manner, lest they fracture the strength of the party and cause a consequential fallout that affects its chances in the general elections. The onerous task for the party would be to reconcile interests and reign in recalcitrant members. Ironically, this has been its albatross, having previously lost a handful of states due to an internal crisis. The biggest obstacle to the party’s retaining incumbency is not the PDP but its internal schisms that have the potential to implode the party. In the All-Progressives Congress, permutations have begun, and candidates have started to declare their intention to contest the presidency. The party may have an unwritten agreement that its presidential candidate should come from the South. So far, only Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Yahaya Bello, Dave Umahi, and Rochas Okorocha have openly indicated an interest in the Presidency in the All-Progressive Congress. Other potential aspirants include Rotimi Ameachi, Kayode Fayemi, and Yemi Osibanjo. The frontline candidates in the party are Yemi Osibanjo and Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who are both from the Southwest caucus of the party. Prof. Yemi Osibanjo is the Vice President of Nigeria and is regarded as an affable, intellectual, and eloquent politician. Though yet to declare, his support groups are springing up across the breadth of this country, pointing to the fact that he would run. The amiable professor lacks a well-grounded regional support base and might be counting on the endorsement of his boss, President Muhammadu Buhari. As a Christian and a pastor, his choice of a Muslim northerner as running mate would balance the religious dynamics of a presidential contest. But for the same reasons, his candidacy might be a hard sell in Northern Nigeria. If the Vice President wins the APC Presidential Primaries, he would need to pick a running mate with a strong Northern Muslim identity to neutralize the perception his candidacy could stir up. Nevertheless, in the eventuality of an endorsement, he might still be unable to garner bloc votes from the North as the PDP might put a northerner on its ticket to make inroads into the votes of the north. Would APC lose to PDP in the North should the latter pick a candidate from the northern region? Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the most formidable candidate in the party, is steadily building a national coalition to actualize his ambition to become President. The groundwork and outreach are ongoing, and his support groups are visible across the length and breadth of the country, attempting to woo people. Notable Nigerians like traditional rulers, serving and former members of the National Assembly and state governors have been reached out to. Given his status as the “Godfather” of the Southwest region, all he needs is inroads to the north and his victory might just be sealed. His choice of Hon. Abdulmumin Jibrin and Senator Kashim Shettima, both formidable politicians from the North, as anchor-men for his campaign speak volumes about the grasp of his path to victory. But his candidature presents two dilemmas: Firstly, he is a Muslim from the Southwest. His choice of a running mate would be a Muslim from the North. A Muslim/Muslim ticket can fly and is winnable, but it would come at a cost. It would be a pyrrhic victory that affects the fractious unity of Nigeria. If victorious in the polls, his administration would be beset by an unstable polity and the national psyche of the country would be further fractured along religious lines. Second, in Nigeria’s political history, there seems to have never been a President who was a formidable contender before his emergence. And I would take you down history lane to prove my point. In the run-up to independence, Sir Ahmadu Bello, leader of the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and Saradauna of Sokoto, declined the position of Prime Minister because, in his words, “I would rather be the Sultan of Sokoto than the Prime-Minister of Nigeria.” This led to the emergence of his deputy, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, as Prime Minister. In 1979, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, having served formerly as a commissioner and Federal Minister, wanted to contest for the Senate. However, he was cajoled by individuals that he had a higher calling and he ran for the Presidency. Alhaji Shehu Shagari defeated the prime candidate at that time, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, and emerged as President. In 1993, Chief M.K.O. Abiola was poised to win the Presidential election. His campaign was formidable and his national appeal was not in doubt, having defeated his opponent, Alhaji Bashir Tofa, in his home state, Kano. The election was eventually annulled and M.K.O Abiola was subsequently incarcerated. Chief Ernest Shonekan, a lawyer and boardroom Guru who did not run for office, assumed office as Head of the Interim National Government given the political crisis of the June 12th annulment. Fast forward to 1999, when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as President from prison quite

CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, GLOBAL SECURITY, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

UKRAINE: A POST-COLD WAR PLAYGROUND

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Ukraine has taken centre stage in world affairs due to an invasion by Russia. The ensuing devastation, displacement, propaganda, sanctions, military operations, and nuclear threat speculations evokes strong scare about World War 3 globally. Coveted by the West and intimidated by Russia, Ukraine is a playground for two bullies. The Russian invasion was precipitated by a quest to join North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) by the leadership of Ukraine. This desire would be negating informal assurances given to Russia during negotiations for the reunification of  Germany in 1989 implying that NATO would not expand eastwards. Political circumstances in Ukraine also make it ineligible to join NATO as its separatist crisis negates two of NATO’s five prerequisites. Before this invasion, Ukraine has been bedevilled by crisis in its eastern region, Donbass, where pro-Russian separatists are seeking political independence. Donbass in eastern Ukraine is home to Luhansk and Donetsk. Two regions recognised as independent by Russia due to their pro-russian sentiments validated through a debatable referendum. Under the pretext of a “special military operation” announced to dispatch troops to protect the Russian minority in Ukraine, Russia invaded Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, a lawyer and ex-KGB officer has been President and Prime Minister of Russia interchangeably in the last two decades. Within that time, USA inspired expansion of NATO into Russia’s sphere of Influence has been in full force despite Putin’s protest. These expansions are designed to whittle down Russia’s clout and the Kremlin has responded by invading and annexing its neighbours, starting with Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, Putin has pursued annexation as a bulwark against Western influence in Russia’s hemisphere. In 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea (part of Ukraine after the fall of USSR), it came against the backdrop of a US planned regime change in Ukraine. The Maidan “revolution” was a series of protests against the refusal of then Ukrainian President, Victor Yanukovych to sign an agreement for political and economic association with the European Union. The protest lasted for months before a number of violent events involving protesters, riot police and snipers culminated in an ouster and fleeing of the President in February 2014. The USA slyly supported the protests and critiqued the government for its crackdown on protesters, an inkling to the fact that the catalyst for ousting the President was far from organic. It was plotted by the USA as a ploy to take advantage of genuine civil discontent through a false flag operation carried out by well trained CIA snipers described as “unknown shooters” ordered to provoke the Ukrainian police during protest marches. In the midst of the chaos the US propped up a rabid anti-Russian politician and a cabinet selected by the US administration to replace the fallen government. It was essentially the imposition of a pro-western, Russo phobic government in Russian backyard to startle the Kremlin. Feeling outsmarted and thirsty for his own “stake”, In March 2014, Putin decided to invade Crimea and exploit ties with the Russian minority by supporting  separatists agitation in eastern Ukraine as a response. Russian troops invaded and took control of Ukraine’s Crimean region during which a referendum was conducted with two options: Join Russia as a federal subject or restore the 1992 Crimean constitution that gives Crimea special status in Ukraine. A stunning 97% voted to join Russia. One can see a correlation between the results of the referendum and Russian soldiers being in control of public buildings and military installations amidst the vote. Putin’s disapproval of Ukraine’s NATO quest stems from a national security threat point of view, and this is valid. But his response is crude and condemnable, by invading Ukraine to protest its leaning towards NATO, he has endangered the lives of millions of people to register displeasure. Ostensibly, NATO is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. Established in the aftermath of World War II, the organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April, 1949. In reality, NATO is in essence a military alliance to protect the interests of America and its allies. Putin’s apprehension is fuelled by NATO expansion eastwards since 1995. Ukraine is being enticed by USA to join NATO, neither to make the country more secure nor protect it from Russia but to establish it as a launchpad for proxy aggression and needling against Russia. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s leadership pursues its NATO quest knowing fully well that its proximity to Russia would make the desire a turbulent issue. The leadership of Ukraine ought to be pushing for neutrality but it seems oblivious of this valid lifeline. A sovereign country should have absolute freedom to determine its foreign policy, true. But this statement is quixotic and sharply contrasts the stark realism and power projection of International politics. Ukraine pursuing the neutral ground is not giving up its sovereignty or freedom of association as a country but preventing itself from being the grass that suffers from the squabble of two elephants. Ukrainian President, Mr Zelensky, goofed and failed to use his wit as an ex comedian to remain neutral by avoiding clinging to one side to not incur the wrath of another. The battle for Ukraine as a client state for Russia or USA is a proxy war that was never going to be fought in Moscow or Washington but in Ukrainian cities like Kiev, Odessa and Kharkov as the world witnesses presently. Thorough consideration of the cost and benefits of joining NATO would have saved Ukraine this devastation. Russia’s discomfort with Ukraine joining NATO bears a heavy semblance with the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Where USA brought the world to a brink of nuclear war because the Soviets matched America’s missiles deployment in Italy and Turkey by placing missiles in Cuba, less than 100 miles from the US border. In justifying why the Soviet Union (an American adversary) should not have weapons close to the US,  international relations concepts like “Spheres of Influence” were bandied around self-servingly. Why is the standard

CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, INTELLIGENCE

ERDOGAN AND HIS PIVOT TOWARDS NIGERIA

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Nigeria and Turkey are two countries with an ancient history of relations beginning from the late 16th century, when the Mai of Kanem-Bornu (an empire in the Sahel centred in Northeast Nigeria and spread across the region up to Southern Libya and Eastern Sudan), Idris Ali Alooma dispatched a diplomatic mission across the Sahara and Mediterranean to the court of the Ottoman Sultan in Istanbul. This development was before both countries became modern day states. Official diplomatic relations between Nigeria and Turkey began in the 1960’s. When Istanbul opened an embassy in Lagos, then capital of Nigeria in 1962. The relationship soured during the Nigerian civil-war when Turkey maintained a position of neutrality and refused to sell weapons to the Nigerian Federation. However, in the 1990’s the relationship between Turkey and Nigeria improved through cooperation in foreign policy and membership of Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) and D-8 also known as Developing-8, an organisation for development co-operation among 8 countries. Direct flights from Istanbul to Abuja, Kano, Lagos and Port-Harcourt have enabled many Nigerians to visit Turkey to shop for the holidays and for medical tourism.  Presently, the trade volume between both countries stands at 2 billion USD as remarked  by Nigeria’s Minister for Trade and Investment, Adeniyi Adebayo. Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his state visit to Nigeria few months ago, which is his third in the last six years says “We hope and pray that we will be expanding our trade volume up to 5 billion dollars immediately”. President Erdogan’s most recent visit to Nigeria was the last leg of his mini-tour of three African countries which also included Angola and Togo. He stressed on “a win-win relationship and equal partnership while observing mutual respect”. During his latest visit numerous Bilateral issues were discussed and eight major Agreements/MoUs on a number of the key sectors including Energy, Defense Industry, Mining and HydroCarbons among others were signed. President Erdogan’s visits are spurred by reasons that border on national interest and regime protection, the latter which he doesn’t hide. Erdogan is yet to overcome the shock of the bloody 2016 coup attempt. On July 15, 2016, a section of the Turkish military launched a coordinated operation in several major cities to topple the government and unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Soldiers and armoured tanks patrolled the streets and a number of explosions rang out in Ankara and Istanbul which claimed over 200 lives. Erdogan has expended great effort in going after the alleged plotter- Fethullah Gullen. Fethullah Gulen is a Turkish preacher and businessman who has lived in self-imposed exile in the United States since 1999. He is a former ally of Erdogan turned arch rival. President Erdogan accused Mr. Gulen as being the mastermind of the July 2016 attempted coup that left over 200 people dead. Gülen is the leader of a widespread religious order- cum-political network known as “Hizmet” (Service) by its members, the movement owns foundations, associations, media organisations and schools in Turkey and abroad. The Turkish Government has designated it as a terrorist organisation, Fethullah Terrorist Organisation (FETO) after the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey by officers aligned to the movement. Sometime ago Gülen and Erdogan were allies and the preacher played an integral part in Erdogans consolidation of power in 2011 when he eased out the secular generals. In his 2017 visit, President Erdogan advised Parents to withdraw their children from the Turkish schools in Nigeria. This is a sequel to his long standing request for the Federal Government to close down 17 Turkish schools in Nigeria (NTIC colleges) owned by Gulen, as they are a front for treason. The Federal Government of Nigeria has turned down this request. In a statement in October, Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Geoffrey Onyeama said while Nigeria would not allow its territory to be used as breeding ground for terrorists, the country considered the dissidents political refugees who are protected by the United Nations. The semantics of Nigeria’s response indicates that it perceives Erdogan’s manhunt for Gülen as sort of a frame-up. Erdogan reiterated this sentiments in his December 2021 visit, when he stated that the “perpetrator of the heinous failed coup of July the 15th, FETO, is still illegally active in Nigeria, and we are continuously sharing our intelligence with the Nigerian interlocutors and authorities”. His desire is a pipe dream as the Turkish schools have done well to integrate ownership with Nigerians and have as their students children of the political elite, top echelon of the civil service and wealthy businessmen. Turkey is an emerging powerhouse of a nation with a rising market economy and solid industrial base. Turkish exporters need a large market for their goods and Nigeria with its 200 million strong population can serve that need. Turkey needs oil and gas without the geopolitical constraints that Iran and Russia pose. Nigeria’s oil and gas reserves can serve as an alternative market. Turkey’s formidable Defence Industry can also provide the Nigerian Armed Forces with defence technology, military arms and equipment on favourable terms without interference unlike the United States of America. Both countries have the potential for a long term mutually beneficial relationship based on strategic cooperation to advance each others national interest. Nigeria serving as a significant market for Turkish goods and services and Turkey providing Nigeria with technical military assistance and selling defence equipment to  Nigeria for combating it’s multifaceted security threat. The multidimensional relations between Nigeria and Turkey is strategic and mutually beneficial. In a world where superpowers are consolidating their reach through military force, economic sanctions and debt trap diplomacy. Regional powerhouses like Nigeria and Turkey despite being unable to use such means can consolidate their reach into each others sphere of influence through mutually beneficial partnership. Erdogan has also pledged to help combat terrorism with Turkey aiming to boost cooperation through its defense industry. Nigeria stands to gain a lot from tapping into Turkey’s defence industry that has gained global recognition and Abuja has began to pursue

CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, SECURITY THREATS

Recent Military Coups in Sub-Saharan Africa; Possible Impact in Nigeria.

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The African continent is no stranger to military coups having been coup laden for the last five decades. Sub-Saharan Africa has faced a dilemma of successful military coups in the last year, with two in Mali, one each in Chad and Guinea, and unsuccessful coups in Niger and Sudan. Military coups seldom change the socioeconomic trajectory of a country for good. Mostly executed against the backdrop of civil discontent with political leaders or the status quo. Military coups reinforce a saviour complex amidst their plotters. However, two key issues remain unanswered: why is the Sub-Saharan clime experiencing a resurgence of this wave? and What caused the recent upheaval? This article attempts to provide an answer to this question. Mali: On the 18th of August 2020, the world was greeted with the news of a coup staged by senior military officers and Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. The President announced his resignation on the state-owned television network. The coup was a culmination of about three months of protest demanding the resignation of President Keita. Given that his resignation came at the instance of the military, Concerns were raised on whether the military was collaborating with the opposition. The protesters were led by a coalition of organisations called the June 5 ( Movement–Rally of Patriotic Force, M5-RFP). Comprising of Keita’s political opposition, a network of civil society organizations, and followers of Imam Mahmoud Dicko- an influential Malian Islamic Scholar and the former head of Mali’s High Islamic Council. Protests were triggered by the Malian constitutional court overturning results of the widely disputed legislative election results. Public angst also stemmed from the government’s inability to provide basic services and uphold democratic norms, it’s handling of insecurity in North and Central Mali, and economic woes perceived to be worsened by a corrupt political class. Mali has been battling complex insecurity challenges since 2012 when Tuareg rebels launched an insurgency in the Northern region. The military junta called the National Committee for the Salvation of the People (NCSP), led by Col. Assimi Goita pledged to restore stability. They were emboldened by the months of long nonviolent protests and capitalized on it. Upon execution, opposition supporters stormed Bamako to celebrate the coup. The junta has vowed to organise elections within 9 months. Following pressure by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for a civilian-led transitional government, the junta on September 21st, 2020 named Mali’s former Defence Minister Col. Bah Ndaw Rtd as president of the country’s new transition government, while Goita was appointed vice president. This diarchy was geared towards a transition to a democratically elected government. President Ndaw appointed former Malian Foreign Minister Moctar Ouane as prime minister, paving way for ECOWAs to lift sanctions imposed on the country on August 19th 2020, in response to the coup. Following the release of the election timetable by the transitional government, a cabinet reshuffle was announced by Ndaw without the knowledge of the Vice President, Col. Goita. This reshuffle led to the replacement of two coup leaders – ex-Defence Minister Sadio Camara and ex-security Minister Colonel Modibo Kone. Hours after the announcement, soldiers detained both Ndaw and Ouane at a military facility in Kati. This marked the advent of a coup within a coup. Col. Goita, leader of the August Coup and the succeeding coup, made a public statement explaining that not intervening would trigger “instability with immeasurable consequences” in the transition. This response was a coy emphasis to the junta not taking it lightly to being side-lined. Chad: In Chad, upon the killing of President Idris Deby Itno, a military coup d’état was executed by Déby’s son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby. General Mahamat dissolved the executive branch, the National Assembly, and suspended the constitution. This coup was to perpetuate the Deby dynasty, as the constitution’s succession plan declares that in the event of a vacuum in power, the president of the National Assembly or first vice President should be appointed as interim president and lead the country to elections within 90 days. The constitution also makes it known that any candidate for president must be 40 years old and above and a civilian, effectively excluding Mahamat Idriss Déby who is 37 years old and an army general. His father, Late President Idris Deby was killed on a visit to the battlefield, his death came after he had emerged victorious in an election fraught with violence in its build-up and was about to be sworn in for the sixth time. Deby emerged out of the ashes of the “Toyota Wars”, a war fought between Chadian and Libyan forces from December 1986 – September 1987, lasting for 9 months. Deby’s Chadian troops executed a decisive victory against the Libyan forces despite being overwhelmingly outnumbered. This military spectacle impressed Libyan Leader Muammar Gaddafi so much so that he wooed Deby with an offer of support to capture power in N’Djamena in exchange for Libyan prisoners of war. Deby attacked the Hissene Habre regime out of Sudan and by December 2nd 1990, he had seized power and strode into Chad’s Presidential Palace. Deby’s rule in Chad was a blend of repression, instability, rebellion, poverty and wars. Just to characterize it, in the election that preceded his death his forces viciously attacked the home of political opposition leader and presidential candidate Yaya Dillo on February 28, killing his mother and wounding five other family members. This politics of repression immediately caused Dillo to withdraw  from the contest. Despite the enormous oil reserves obtainable in Chad, its poverty rate is alarming. Placed 187 out of 189 countries by the United Nations Development Programme in its 2020 human development index the excruciating poverty sharply contracts the opulent lifestyle Deby and his family basked in. Having cornered all the country’s strategic positions in governance as a stepping stone to extreme wealth. Deby was an acclaimed colossus for regional stability in the Sahel.  The Chadian army has been effective in the fight against Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin and ISIS-affiliated groups across the

CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Anglophone Crisis: Black Day on October 1?

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In the past few days, military units were deployed to various departments of the Southern Cameroons. Reinforcements were stationed within regions including Bamenda, in the Mezam department, Kumbo in Bui department, and Ndop in Ngo-Ketunjia, all in the Northwest region. A similar exercise was equally noted in Kumba, the seat of the Meme region in the Southwest. Notable among these security operations is the heavy deployment to Ngo-Ketunjia on 26 September 2021, when a convoy of 20 armoured vehicles reportedly arrived in the community. The first reason that would come to mind to justify this show of force will be that this exercise is a response to the intermittent attacks on security personnel and posts, which is however not far-fetched. On the other hand, considering the recent activities of the Ambazonian Defense Forces (ADF), which include restraint on movement and imposition of lockdown in the Southern Cameroons in anticipation of Ambazonian day. The deployments could be a probable attack strategy by the Cameroonian military to hit the militants hard during the celebrations – when they least expected. The first day of October is celebrated by the Anglophone region as the unification day. It marks the independence of the Southern Cameroonians from British rule and its reunification with Francophone Cameroon in 1961. As is customary, it is an important day celebrated by the anglophone population, including the separatists’ fighters. As such, the militants are likely to come out of their hideouts as celebration fills the air. This, however, will reveal their hideouts to military agents who have possibly been strategically positioned and infiltrated into these communities. What lies ahead is unknown. Nonetheless, there are two possible outcomes. The celebration will lead to a massacre of secession agitators, shouts of jubilation will likely reveal their hiding spots and intelligence will circulate within the military through pre-positioned moles.  Conversely, the event will go on despite military presence, although the ADF separatists militants may fail to celebrate to avoid betraying their stronghold. However, this will leave the rest of the population at the mercy of the military, who may begin random raids, arresting locals and torturing them for information on separatist hideouts as recorded in recent times. The atmosphere reeks of impending danger in Southern Cameroon. In the past few days, residents scampered to stock up on essential food items during the eased lockdown days, as business activities are likely to be paralyzed temporarily on the proclaimed Ambazonia day. October 2021 may go down in history as a black day for the secessionists and the locals. Nevertheless, the security forces are in no way excluded from the imminent threat.

CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Impacts of Geopolitical Instability on Guinea-Bissau’s Security and Political Stance

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Amidst political tension and challenges in the neighbouring country Guinea-Conakry following the recent military junta, the political atmosphere of Guinea-Bissau is also extremely tense. The manifestation of this was confirmed after all Military parastatals in Guinea-Bissau were placed on temporary indefinite prevention; that is, temporary lockdown on 13 September 2021, owing to the fears of the repetition of similar events. Aside from the impacts on the security stance, analytical reports indicate the recent military coup noted in Guinea-Conakry points to the rise in political instability in West Africa thereby posing a threat to regional economic integration. As one of the few Lusophone countries in Africa, Guinea-Bissau is considered a level 3 country that is; with an overall medium risk assessment as criminality is on the low side while non-violent crime and civil unrest are quite prevalent. However, in recent times the country has been beset by chronic political agitations and repression which have impeded development and affected the economic stability of the nation. Since the commencement of the year 2021, numerous agitations have manifested in various forms across the public sector, educational sector, health sector, and transport sector. And presently, highly disruptive strikes are ongoing in the health, educational and public sectors. Two of such consequential disruptions include the paralysis of the entire national health system across Guinean territory, and the 9-month long strike in the public service that is being spearheaded by the National Workers’ Union of Guinea-Bissau (UNTG). In the wake of heightened tension in the political scene and endless agitations in the aforementioned sectors, strikes, protests and other civil unrest manifestations will likely remain constant tools in the fight against political repression in the country.

CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Governance at the edge of a cliff

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As it is popularly said “power does not corrupt man, man corrupts power”. Virtually every human being wants to hold onto power even when things are bad with him at the hems of affairs. Many African dictators have risen and fallen since the 60s. Military coup has become an age long trend across Africa as African leaders hold on tenaciously to power without pacifying the demigods – the people. A leader can only successfully hold onto power with minimal opposition if the economy is thriving under him. This hence demands the socio-economic prowess of the leader. While this does not guarantying his perpetual remanding in power, he has a large chance of staying in power. Taking Guinea as a case study, it is apparent that the recently ousted civilian government led by Alpha Conde was experiencing deterioration economically and politically. A wave of civil unrest was not across the country while the government tried to repress its people. The insufficient of the opposition in influencing the decisions of  the ousted president Alpha Conde became glaring with the military unexpected takeover of the government. Knowing when to leave power is very paramount to the aftermath story of any great politician. This is one reason why President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is still lauded as a democratic president across the world due to his heroic relinquishing of power in 2015. While Guinea may have experienced its own heat of political mismanagement by the civilian government, another country to look out for is Togo as dissension over the 2020 election and the perpetual remanding of the Gnassingbe dynasty in governance remain a painful tale told across the country. The Togolese authorities have been accused of restricting protest demonstration and suppressing freedom of speech through the intimidation of the citizenry by the military. Economic meltdown and sociopolitical tension caused the coup in Guinea, the same may be said of Togo if a coups ensues in the country. Could the governance of these African nations be at the edge of the cliff? Below are a comparison of civil unrest across Guinea and civil unrest across Togo. It is hence apparent that Guineans have often expressed themselves through protest demonstrations but the Togolese populace may find it difficult to express itself due to the alleged use of intimidation by the authorities. Although not in the words of Lt. Col. Mamady Doumbouya, “the military should intervene if democracy seem threatened and the voice of the people unheard”, will Togo be witnessing the same fate soon?  

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, SECURITY THREATS

SOCIOECONOMIC/ SOCIOPOLITICAL CRISIS, WHOSE FAULT; THE AUTHORITIES OR THE PEOPLE?

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No government has ever had a hundred per cent support from the people but some supporters of the opposition can be won over after the election. This all depends on good leadership. According to John Maxwell: “everything rises and falls on leadership…”. While leadership can be blamed, it is also expedient to emphasize the fact that in a representative government, the government is a sample of the entire populace. Hence, the shortcomings of politicians portrays the moral state of the populace from which they emanate. The Guinean populace has experienced successive governments with their corresponding turbulence over the years. The divergent opinion of individuals does not only state the differences in the populace but may also portray the self-deception of some as diplomacy and unpatriotic solidarity of an individual may blind him to the shortcomings of a government. While the Guinean economy does not look very attractive, insecurity and political crisis are preponderant. Sociopolitical crisis comprises mining issues, protest demonstrations across mining companies and teachers institute denouncing irregularities of the authorities. This may have to do with wages paid for artisanal miners and bursary delays for students. Socioeconomic issues noted are lack of potable water, constant power supply, increment in fuel price and other essential commodities and bad road networks. While all these linger, politicians still contest using the same old promises: development of infrastructure and provision of employment. The rate of crime in the country is accrued to the rate of government insufficiency in many areas of the economy. The increment in food commodities and basic social amenities is considered as one of the causes of increased criminality in the country. The same way the rate of road accidents across the country is due to bad roads and partly due to negligence of commercial road users. The high rate of landslide (hazard) also boils down to the inability of the authorities to promulgate laws binding on mining operations and sanction of its defaulters. While the Guinean challenges on the political scene reflect on the economy, the populace’s ardent support for politicians remains unwavering. However, the continuous support of the people for erring top leaders and their profession of undying support accrues most of the sociopolitical and socioeconomic woes to the people.

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, Reports

TRAMPLED DEMOCRACY

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Mali’s history as an unstable state has been linked to not only security challenges but also political tensions in state administration. While many efforts and resources have been directed toward security issues, little attention has been paid to the country’s political crisis in governance, which has plagued the country since its independence and continues to this day, raising questions and doubts about when the country will see a smooth and uninterrupted regime. Mali today is a multi-party republic with a presidential régime based on the new constitution adopted by referendum in January 1992. In accordance with the terms of this constitution, the president, elected for five years, appoints the prime minister who selects the members of his cabinet. On November 19, 1968, eight years after the country’s independence, President Modibo Keita, Mali’s first president, was overthrown by a military coup led by Lieutenant Moussa Traoré. This was in response to peasant protests against Modibo Keita’s socialist regime. Lieutenant Moussa Traoré, who took over power, ousted him. He was the head of state until March 1991, when he was toppled by the same means after 23 years of authoritarian leadership/rule. His tenure was marked by a single-party system, recurring economic crises, and droughts, which resulted in a thirst for democracy among Malians. The military coup that deposed Malian President Moussa Traoré, led by Lieutenant-Colonel Amadou Toumani Touré, was followed by a democratic transition that resulted in legislative and presidential elections in 1992. Alpha Oumar Konaré was elected President of Mali and led the country in the democratic era until 2002. Lieutenant-Colonel Amadou Toumani Touré ran for president in 2002 after retiring from the military. He was re-elected for a second term, but a coup d’état launched by a group of Kati soldiers forced him out of office, just as he was about to leave the seat. Captain Amadou Haya Sanogo, the coup leader, suspended the constitution and promised a transitional government. Nonetheless, Malian parties and the international community, which imposed sanctions, condemned the situation. The election for that year was rescheduled for 2013. Exploiting the instability in Bamako, the jihadists gain the upper hand over the Tuareg separatists from the north and seize the three regions of northern Mali, Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu. They governed the northern part of the country under a severe form of Sharia law until the start of the French and regional military intervention in January 2013. After winning the presidential elections on July 28, 2013, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita assumed power as Malian president in September 2013. Following the election on August 12, 2018, he was also re-elected for a second term. Soldiers deposed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and Prime Minister Boubou Cissé on August 18, 2020, and formed the National Committee for the Salvation of People (CNSP). He was accused of escalating jihadist violence, economic stagnation, corruption, and nepotism. A National Transition Committee was formed with the commitment to hold democratic elections at the beginning of 2022. The junta assigns Bah N’Daw as president of the transition. Mali adopted an 18-month transition chart. On May 24, 2021, military officers from the Kati camp apprehended transitional president Bah N’Daw and prime minister Moctar Ouane, who were taken to the Kati military base, a well-known camp known for being the epicentre of all Mali’s military coups. This occurred during the country’s 18-month transition period following the 18 August 2021 coup d’état. This detention was thought to be related to the fact that two members of the junta that took power in the 2020 coup were removed from their positions in a cabinet reshuffle. The transitional president and prime minister were forced to resign as a result of the coup. This coup was strongly condemned by international bodies, despite the fact that Mali was sanctioned by some organizations, including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). While a new interim government has been formed to govern the affairs of the state until the next general elections in 2022, all hopes are focused on the birth of a democratic nation. Will the next election help to rebuild the country into a true democracy?

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