Bulwark Intelligence

Linkedin Instagram Envelope
Edit Content

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, Reports

THE STATE AND HER GOVERNMENT

/

Although it is out of place for the whole State to be at par with any government as healthy management of the state resources (human and material) demands a competitive opposition full of scrutiny, a better part of the Togolese state seems to be consistently incongruent with her successive government denouncing irregularities and non-inclusive practice of democracy. The successive governments have been turbulent since the country gained its independence on 27 April 1960.  Following the assassination of Olympius Sylvanus who ruled Togo from 1960 to 1963, the military-ruled for two days between 13 January 1963 and 15 January 1963 through Emmanuel Bodjolle. Nicolas Grunitzy took over the government from 16 January 1963 to January 1967 when the latter was deposed by the military. Kleber Djabo took over from 16 January t1967 to 14 April 1967 before Eyadima Gnassingbe the father of Faure Gnassingbe took over the reins of power. Gnassingbe Eyadima took over the government under a military coup and later transitioned to civilian rule in an election he won. He died on the seat of a heart attack after ruling for 37 years and 297 days having ruled from 14 April 1965 to 5 February 2005. The declaration of his son as the president of the country by the military is considered by many as undermining democracy. His son Faure Eyadima Gnassingbe has ruled the country since 2005 till date. Many arbitrary arrests and protests have been noted in the country. With a wave of violent protests undertaken by the teachers in 2018, protest has since been banned by the government and every form of suspicious gathering has since been toppled off by the Government Security Forces. The recent was the disruption of the gathering of teachers. Agbeyome Kodjo, a former prime minister, member of the parliament and the 2020 presidential candidate was arrested for declaring himself president even after the electoral commission declared Faure E. Gnassingbe the returning president. Control of power and fear of losing it seems to be the order of the day as successive incumbent presidents leave no stone upturned to retain power. Agbeyome Kodjo had since been out of the country after his release. He and Faure Gnassingbe have been engaged in battles of words with few deniable retaliation. President Faure Gnassingbe is accused of arresting opposition party members especially adepts of Agbeyome Kodjo. A recent intel also suggested an assassination plot against Monseigneur Kpodzro, Agbeyome Kodjo and the assistant of Monseigneur Kpodzro. This had led to the exfiltration of the religious leader Kpodzro to Sweden. Other prominent individuals in custody or doing jail time are Kpatcha Gnassingbe, former minister Djimon Ore and Paul Missiagbeto, the assistant of Agbeyome Kodjo who was all arrested in connection with an imminent threat against the incumbent principal executive. While the dialogue is expected to ensue between Faure Gnassingbe and Agbeyome Kodjo, political tension which is relatively high is likely to trigger violent protests across the country if a dialogue towards nation-building is not undertaken. CHART SHOWING OCCURRENCES IN TOGO FROM 2018 TO 2021 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT: Political occurrences VIOLENCE AGAINST CIVILIANS: Civilians and military clashes RIOT: Violent demonstrations by socio-professional groups like commercial road users. PROTEST: protests against government irregularities, new policies and a faction of the government.

BORDER SECURITY, CURATED OSINT, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, SECURITY THREATS

POLITICAL GABEGIE (BENIN REPUBLIC)

/

INTRODUCTION President Patrice Talon, a business tycoon who was known for financing politicians, promised to stay in office for one term when he came into office for the first time in 2016. He is an independent candidate supported by a host of political parties amongst which are the Progressive Union and the Republican bloc. He had tried to promulgate a law where successive presidents can only have one office term; this was however rejected by the law makers. Following his victory in the 2021 election by 86% of total votes, and his endorsement by the constitutional court on Thursday, April 15 2021. Joel Aivo, a disqualified presidential candidate of Front for the Restoration of Democracy was apprehended for terrorist crimes. Paul Hounkpe, the running mate of Alassane Soumanou of Cowry Front for an Emerging Benin who came second with 11.37% of the total vote, was declared head of the opposition. Drastic quell of tension on the political scene was predominant. A wave of change in the executive team of the president’s second tenure is expected when President Patrice Talon kick starts his second tenure by 23rd May 2021. Series of court proceedings on prominent politicians and protesters arrested are also expected Despite the assertion of the election’s credibility by the International community and independent observers, the court’s proceedings of Reckya Madougo and Joel Aivo as well as other election prisoners will attract the attention of the International society.  ARREST/DEMONSTRATION The Beninese political climate has since February 2021 reported an increase in political tension, following the disqualification of 17 of the 20 candidates running for Presidency. The two retained candidates Alassane Soumanou of Cowry Front for an Emerging Benin and Corentine Kohoue, a dissident figure who were to face the incumbent President Patrice Talon were neither considered as equal to the task nor oppositions of the president as many disqualified candidates and members of the opposition may have considered their political forces as not formidable enough. Many disqualified candidate had begun to form alliances when Reckya Madougou was apprehended on her way from a meeting with other party representatives. Reports also showed an increasing crackdown on politicians and protesters by the Cour de Repressions des Infractions Economiques et du Terrorisme (the Court for the Repression of Economic Crimes and Terrorism) before and after the election. Notable arrests made were the arrest of Sebastien Ajouvon (a presidential candidate who came third in 2016 presidential election), Bio Tijani Dramane (a prominent partisan of the Democrat Party) and Reckya Madougou before the election while Joel Aivo and about fifteen people were arrested at the residence of judge Essowe Batamoussi (a judge who resigned from CRIET denouncing irregularities and fled the country) after the election . The arrest of Reckya Madougou coupled with several irregularities noted during the election screening had propelled the wave of civil unrest that swept through the country from 5th to 7th April, 2021. A faction of protesters in support of the incumbent president also demonstrated in retaliation to the violent demonstration by the opposition noted across the county from 5th of April notably in Collines and Bante departments. PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE Protest demonstrations against the illegal remanding of the President on the seat gave room to riots, kidnapping and other forms of violence across the country as clashes were also  noted between hunters and the Republican police in the Bante of Collines department. The hunters’ group are known to have wrecked havoc during the election across the cities of Gouka, Bante, Savelou, Agbon, Mamatchoke and Save in Collines. Gunfire exchange by the group, other unidentified armed men and the GSF left five dead across the nation during the elections period. The elections could not be conducted in 16 polling units across the nation as five deaths were recorded in the Collines department from multiple violent demonstrations and armed clashes reported in the department. OUTLOOK Due to the peculiarity of court proceedings, political tension is likely to rise if the opposition seems displeased with the court’s rulings. Violence is highly probable in Collines, Bante and Littoral departments if any irregularity is noted in the rulings considering the rate of violence noted during the elections in these departments. An increase in violent crimes is highly probable in the absence of drastic security measures. There is increased risk of post-electoral violence during the May 23 presidential swearing in. An outbreak of violence, definitely will lead to humanitarian crisis, cross country migration especially into neighboring countries such as Togo, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Niger and Ghana. RECOMMENDATION Businesses and Individuals are advised to be highly vigilant in violence-prone communes and departments like Collines and Borgu departments. Individuals are advised to stay indoors during violent periods. Observe any suspicious movement and immediately report to the Police or appropriate authorities.

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

President Teodoro Obiang’s Game in Cameroon and Gabon

/

Introduction While security concerns in the Gulf of Guinea focus on two key issues which includes; Piracy in the region and the Internal stability of Nigeria, there are currently other factors behind the scenes in the region that should raise alarm bells. One of the areas of concern happens to be the railings of Africa’s current longest ruling head of state, President Teodoro Obiang who has ruled Equatorial Guinea with an iron hand since the 1979 Coup d’etat. Recently AFP (Agency France Presse) ran an item where he claimed that Cameroon and Gabon were planning to launch a war against him. Reports indicate that on December 27th a group of 40 armed men were taken into custody by Cameroonian Security Forces while they were enroute the Country. The Ambassador to France from Equatorial Guinea was quoted as saying that this event was an “invasion and destabilization attempt”. Whereupon the border between Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea was closed to traffic, the Border with Gabon was also closed as well and the additional steps of sending army troops to augment security measures at both borders were taken. The very next day activists belonging to the CI (Citizens for Innovation) party were taken into custody at their headquarters in Malabo and in the port city of Bata. This is in addition to 50 other party members that have been in custody since November 12th, 2017 when President Obiang’s ruling party dominate a general election by winning 92% of the votes cast. Thus, it appears that Obiang has found his scapegoat of who may be behind those that were detained internally. However, he is assuming that they had help from the outside and feels that Cameroon is that party. Cameroon Angle Peeling back at the layers of this information from Cameroon, there are several other data points that need to be taken into consideration. 1.The problem with the Anglophone community within Cameroon that are restless, unhappy with the authorities in Yaounde for cracking down on their use of the Internet amongst other issues. 2. The Boko Haram insurgency; although this low-level conflict seems to be waning in Cameroon and returning to Nigeria this cannot be overlooked as a factor that will have regional implications. However, does this mean that an intelligence operation against Obiang was underway? most likely. It probably will not be the last time either such action may be taken. It appears also that the Government of Cameroon may not have known at first that this was being undertaken but could be taken advantage of by a third party. A government under duress could take on such an endeavor against what could be seen as a weaker neighbor. The government of Paul Biya is currently under distress from several factors, but would they take such action against Obiang unless they could prove that he is meddling in the internal affairs of Cameroon?   Gabon Angle Gabon is another interesting challenger to this equation. It also had a controversial President who was re-elected recently. That being said, the country is one of the targets of President Obiang when he throws around accusations of entities trying to remove him from power. A question now begs to be asked that if these fighters were caught in Cameroon why then close the border with Gabon?Closing the border could be a case of securing the castle against all known and unknown adversaries. President Obiang has proven adept at creating them, but after controversial elections in Brazzaville in 2016, the unwillingness to schedule polls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the actions of Transnational criminals and even some insurgencies from the neighbors could be forcing the hand of Obiang or so he wants others to see. Author: Scott Morgan Scott Morgan is the President of Red Eagle Enterprises. He uses his experience from serving in the U.S. Marines during the Reagan Administration, attending college for Criminal Justice, Advocacy for Human Rights and Writing to come up with an interesting matrix and business model. Currently based in Washington, DC he specializes in US Policy towards Africa focusing on Security, Asymmetrical Operations and Business Development South of the Sahara.                      

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Can Saif Ghaddafi fix Libya?

/

How would Libyans react? Answer: Most Libyans who lived during the era of Ghaddafi and now in the divided country are fed up with the continuous instability and they are positive that Saif Islam has the experience to unite Libya again. But one must not ignore an existing dissention in roughly about 20-30 of tribes and mostly militias and organised crime groups that depend on the chaos to survive and continue their illegal activities. In some cases, there is obvious scepticism as to whether their support for Saif Islam, a controversial figure, will become a reality or backfire if he does not win. The most opposition comes from Al-Qaeda and ISIL elements in addition to foreign backed elements benefitting from the external funding from Turkey, Qatar, EU states but it is the support of Libyans in Libya that matters most.  What are the main narratives of Saif Al Islam Ghaddafi’s platform?  Answer:  Like all prospective candidates who would be putting themselves to run as Presidential candidates for the first general elections in the history of Libya after Muammar Ghaddafi, the main narratives will be underscored by the issue of the security and stability of Libya, the crumbling economy, post conflict infrastructural reconstruction, social welfare, domestic and foreign policies. This will be the key narratives of most candidates, but Saif Islam is not like any other Presidential candidate. Saif Islam is the bloodline of his late father and he was the most active and outspoken of the Ghaddafi lineage during the NATO led revolution in 2011. In comparison to other possible contenders, Saif Islam has more experience, exposure, knowledge and trust of the ordinary Libyan who now look back in reminiscent of what Libyans enjoyed in the days of his father in comparison to what Libya is today for only a few individuals. Saif Islam has gone through a political ‘grounding mill’ and he understands what will take Libya out of its current chaotic state. A modern governance by the people and for the people without foreign interference in the internal affairs of Libya. While in jail, and after spending all his life in Libya politics in a very strategic and operational role both at home and abroad; Saif Islam has taken time to think and reflect on what went wrong and now he has the only opportunity to perhaps have another go if the people of Libya choose to elect him as their next President in a free and fair election. It is clear to Saif Islam that after almost 7 years of chaos that followed the Arab Spring neither the Libya National Army (LNA) of General Khalifa Haftar nor the Government of National Accord (GNA) nor AQ or ISIL factions have the capacity to bring Libya even close to where it was when his father was in power for 42 years. Ordinary Libyans who make up majority of the voting population and who do not benefit directly or indirectly from the chaos are tired of the instability and Saif Islam is putting himself forward as the man who can save Libya from total obliteration. He is comparatively young, energetic and patriotic. Even before the 2011 revolution, Saif Islam was very instrumental and demonstrated excellent international relations with external countries. Unlike Saif Islam, the LNA of Haftar is regarded by many Libyans as too authoritarian and a direct product of the CIA. The UNSMIL/GNC is equally regarded as too democratic and a UN and EU puppet. Saif Islam comes across as one of the surviving sons of Ghaddafi who has the genetic credentials and passion to change the complex dynamics of Libya, a country that is very strategic to regional, European and Sahelian peace and security. Let us not forget, Saif Islam may have a very ugly past and has been involved in some bad political decisions in the past but in balancing the precarious and downward circumstances in Libya today he, and he alone stands the best chance to unify Libya again should he be given the opportunity. What are the main challenges he is likely to face? Answer:  There are 5 key challenges that immediately comes one’s mind. His biological and political background His controversial relationship with the external world especially the EU, UN, UK & US. The ICC indictment that hangs over his neck How he can fix Libya with several conflicting tribal factions How fair will the elections of 2018 be? 1st challenge:  Saif Islam’s first challenge may seem to be his ‘Achilles heels’ but it is also his most powerful strength (It’s like the famous saying that goes; the strength of the chain is in the weakest link.). This is a man with the Ghaddafi controversial image and blood inside and outside his body like bad rash, but again, that is exactly what makes him a genuine contender for the position. Without his biological background, we won’t be so focused on Saif Islam today. He faces the challenge of internal acceptance by Libyans as some Libyans who suffered under his father’s regime will not want to see another Ghaddafi in power creating an impression of a family dynasty. Saif Islam will have to assure ordinary Libyans that he brings forth a slightly different approach from his father and he is ready to leave power when his mandate expires as the Libyan constitution will spell out terms of office. It cannot be business as usual for Saif Islam and he sees his political intervention as the last opportunity to resuscitate Libya. 2nd Challenge: Beyond Libya, Saif Islam is considered, especially by the west (UK, EU, NATO, US) as a spitting image of his father’s hard-line political views despite his western educational background during his days at the London School of Economics (LSE). Saif Islam is going to have to battle hard to change his spots but of course I do not see Saif Islam winning the hearts of the West now because the bitterness is still fresh, he must focus on winning the hearts and minds of

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, nig analysis, Nigeria

Discordant Voices On Nigeria’s Corporate Existence

/

The National Intelligence Council Report   It all started on January 15, 2005, at a conference of academic and non-governmental experts on Africa, convened by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), where the Mapping of Sub-Sahara Africa was published. In that conference, the most important message delivered by the conferees was that even in this age of globalization, local factors will determine Africa’s fate. These local factors include religiously inspired terrorism, sharing of revenue accrued from hydrocarbon sales, corruption etc. The report was categorical that Africa’s oil producing states, and a handful of other African countries committed to governance reforms have the best chance of attracting international investment needed to compete and survive. However, other African countries, including some failed states, plagued by poor leadership, divisive ethnic politics, decayed government institutions, geographic constraints may be unable to engage the international economy sufficiently to reverse their downward trajectory.   What has made that report famous was the postulation that Nigeria, will be balkanized in 2015, considering the following factors: African countries, especially West Africa, will of course be exposed to the downside of globalization. Corruption will pose a major challenge to African countries. If Angola, Nigeria and Sudan – three of Africa’s largest and most important countries – actually began to use their revenues from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger economically and impact the region. The outright collapse of Nigeria due to combinations of the stated factors. Nigeria has been the focus of this report, with many condemning the report as false. The NIC is a think-tank that analyses global events and map out the likely future of different regions of the world. In 2005, the level of patriotism was higher than what it is today, but Nigerians were not unaware of the fact that their leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave. They are aware that there are possibilities that the precarious equilibrium in Abuja could be disrupted. In straight terms, all dislike the marriage of many tribes and tongues, but are very dependent on the hydrocarbon revenue, that keeps the country together. Another fear was that, if Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West Africa region. A failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years. This report became so famous that a lot of Nigerians were actually looking forward to the year 2015. Nigeria was likened to a trailer that was speeding down-hill, without breaks or shock-absorbers; and no effort was being made to stop the slide. Politicians were making incendiary statements and everyone was ready for the D-day.  Being an election year, the report became a point of reference for many. Instead of an upturn in the economy, the billions of dollars generated from hydrocarbon sales were being stolen and squandered. Corruption was rife and Nigeria occupied its place of pride as the No. 1 most corrupt country, on the Global Corruption Perception Index. As the general election of 2015 approached, many politicians evacuated their families overseas, afraid of the chaos and anticipated violence that will occur when the results of the elections are announced. Multi-national companies, especially in the oil and gas sectors were withholding their investments until after the elections. This greatly affected the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which dropped from $1381.06m in July 2014 to 624.87m in July 2015. The world was holding its breath for Nigeria, unsure of what the outcome will be. The campaign was fierce, between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by President Goodluck Jonathan (from the minority Niger Delta, who was seeking re-election) and a new coalition of smaller parties, the All Progressive Congress (APC), led by retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari (a Fulani and former Head of State from the North). Buhari  conducted a campaign of fighting corruption. Many were in support of that objective but were never sincere about fighting corruption. Intelligence reports were indicating that if the PDP wins, there will be a blood-bath across the country. This was because of some ethno-religious factors that have already started to play out during the election campaigns. A national catastrophe was averted when Goodluck Jonathan, did the uncommon act in African politics, by making a phone-call to his APC opponent, Buhari, conceding victory. That singular act was like a long expected torrent of rain on a baked arid desert soil.  Many analysts congratulated themselves that the NIC doomsday forecast on Nigeria has been finally proven wrong. Hopes were rising that Nigeria was back on track and by December 2015, FDI scaled up to $1213.98m. By the first and second quarter of 2016, the discordant voices started and this time with very high tempo. Companies were skeptical. The Naira was losing value, as the price of oil dived to an all-time low of $30 per barrel in the international market. Things were not changing with the rapidity that was expected. Kidnapping became a national past-time. Brain drain was climbing up the scale. Many Nigerian youths, in their attempt to look for greener pastures, crossed the Sahara Desert and many drowned in the Mediterranean Sea while crossing into Europe. People started realizing that there is nothing to gain in this marriage that they have been forced into by Lord Frederick Lugard in 1914. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) sustained their agitations for a sovereign state. The new APC government threw in a lot of resources to weaken the insurgency in the North-East by Boko Haram. Their attempt at establishing a Caliphate in the North-Eastern region of the country was crushed. However, the more than 200 school girls kidnapped by Boko Haram were still not rescued.  Many militant groups started emerging in the Niger Delta. In the fore-front is the Niger Delta Avengers, who felt that the oil producing areas of the Niger Delta is being taken for a ride, without any meaningful development in the area. By 2017, the Arewa Youths Movements came out with the

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Prospects of Biafra Independence (Part 2)

/

Any news-savvy individual not ensconced under the rock, not living in another planet in the last couple of years will attest to the strident publicity, increasing appeal of the Biafra independence movement. In addition to the #BiafraAt50 Anniversary cum a very successful sit-at-home order by Biafra campaigners which took place on May 30, 2017 and completely shut down the entire southeast and parts of the south-south, on Aljazeera, July 5, 2017, Aljazeera’s The Stream featured a programme titled – #Biafra50YearsOn: Is Nigeria’s secessionist movement re-emerging? Coincidentally, the British Broadcasting Corporation, BBC, also did a broadcast on July 5/6, 2017 titled –Biafra at 50: The war that changed Nigeria. As the global awareness ramps up…the plot thickens and Nigeria increasingly looks like a country on the brink. Similar to his gung-ho military approach to the renewed militancy in the Niger Delta which subsequently petered out through deft diplomacy, President Buhari’s miscalculation and whimsical incarceration of Nnamdi Kanu transformed him into a folk hero with an impressive global cult following. ‘’Treat the surrendering Biafrans  well or risk their children rising’’ – General Philip Effiong, Biafra Second-in-command, 1970 SBM BIAFRA INTELLIGENCE’ SURVEY  May 25, 2017; SMB Intelligence, a market intelligence and communications consulting firm affiliated to Stratfor, a United States-based geopolitical intelligence firm founded by George Friedman, published a report/survey titled ‘’Prospects of Biafra 2.0’’. The report aimed to gauge the PERCEPTION and PROSPECT of Biafra in southeast and south-south Nigeria. SBM Intelligence’ says it sent correspondents to interview people in South-East and South-South geopolitical zones and also conducted an online survey open only to indigenes of those zones. SBM Intelligence’ submitted conclusively that, ‘’in general terms there is rising support for a Biafra in the South-East and South-South geopolitical zones. However, those who support secession are not yet in the majority. More people are inclined towards a restructuring within a united Nigeria’’. I BEG TO DIFFER WITH SBM INTELLIGENCE Given inter-alia, the abysmally narrow data set (489 valid responses out of a population set of tens of millions of Igbos scattered around the world), the poor geographic spread or spatial arrangement of the survey, I humbly dispute the conclusion of the aforesaid survey that, ‘’there is rising support for a Biafra in the South-East and South-South geopolitical zones. However, those who support secession are not yet in the majority…’’. I think SBM Intelligence’ submission is hypothetical, debatable, fallible, conservative hence not a silver bullet. As an information and social media savvy writer/blogger, voracious reader, a security analyst cognizant of up-to-date events, goings-on, my personal interactions with Ndigbo (grassroots and abroad), feedback from sources, open-source intelligence research, I wish to infer that if a free, fair straightforward “Yes” or ‘’No’’. Biafra referendum is conducted under this prevailing ambiance of rage fertilized by the Buhari administration’s apparent marginalization and subjugation of Ndigbo, a Yes vote for Biafra independence would trounce a no vote.   PROSPECT OF SOME SOUTH-SOUTH STATES BEEN PART OF BIAFRA If there is anything the Nigerian establishment is adept at, it is deploying and entrenching divide and rule schemes. Some apparently sponsored Niger Delta folks, groups have voiced out that they don’t want to be part of Biafra. Biafra independence is not an Igbo affair. Prominent south-south persons have overtly voiced support for Biafra independence. Daily Post newspaper of July 2, 2017 reported that ex-Niger Delta militant leader, Alhaji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, reiterated his support for Nnamdi Kanu, declaring that he is not a Nigerian but a Biafran. Also, Niger Delta environmental and human rights activist, Ms. Ankko Briggs believes it is rather too late to restructure Nigeria, says Nigeria should split. Common sense, cultural, religious affinity and compatibility suggests that if Niger Deltans are given a choice between been part of Biafra or remaining in Nigeria, they will be better off , opt for Biafra independence than to be yoked, henpecked and stifled by the Muslim Hausa-Fulani oligarchy. Recall that His Royal Highness Chief Frank Opigo Dawai 111, Amananaowei of Angliama in present day Bayelsa State was the person who reportedly suggested the name “Biafra’’ and it was subsequently adopted. History also tells us that General Philip Effiong, the second in command to General Odumegwu Ojukwu, hails from present day Akwa Ibom state.  Recall that SBM Intelligence’ conservative survey result cautiously adduced that 42.5 percent of respondents consider southeast and south-south as constituting Biafra. On the disinformation that Biafra would be a landlocked country with little promise if Niger Delta states opt out, Wikipedia tells us there are 49 landlocked countries in the world; 16 of them in Africa. Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Ethiopia, Botswana, among others are landlocked. Nigeria with its vast shoreline is not better than all the aforementioned countries. Ndigbo are survivors and will thrive anywhere.   BIAFRA REFERENDUM, VESTED INTERESTS, AND ‘INTERFERENCE’ As is always the case, there are overt and covert vested interests in international affairs, diplomacy. Interference that could influence the outcome a political process or a referendum include inter-alia: disinformation, psychological warfare (threatening Igbos with the prospect of losing their investments in Nigeria (or a damaging scandal), psychographics, outright hacking of poll/election or referendum result. Amid deafening calls for Balkanization of Nigeria by separatists groups such as the IPOB et al, the United States ambassador to Nigeria recently opined that Nigeria is better off together. Will the US government go all out to foster and sustain the ‘forced marriage’ called Nigeria or will they switch sides if Biafra guarantees their interests? The Buhari administration stridently supports independence for Palestinian territory and Western Sahara. The game-plan of hedging actualization of Biafra through civil disobedience/referendum is not a walkover. Keep our eyes on the ball.   BIAFRA INDEPENDENCE AGITATION NO LONGER A PASTIME FOR RIFFRAFF’S Prior to now, the Biafran Cause was deemed a pastime of uneducated and no-good Joe Bloggs in Igboland. The dynamics have changed. Scores of enlightened, educated Igbos and non-Igbos though not as virulent, are joining the difficult conversation which Nnamdi Kanu and other intransigent Biafra campaigners amplified and foisted on

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Biafra: Nigeria On The Brink

/

Fifty years after the Nigerian – Biafra civil war, Ndigbo of southeast Nigeria don’t have a sense of belonging in Nigeria. They feel alienated, marginalized and subjugated as a conquered people. More than one hundred years after disparate nation states with dissimilar cultures, religion, and values amongst others were forcefully amalgamated by British colonialists for administrative convenience, hegemonic aggrandizement and fifty years after a three year civil war, Nigeria simultaneously grapples with insurgency, terrorism, militancy, instability, and recurring agitation for the balkanization of the country. Most of the issues that led to the Nigeria-Biafra civil war were glossed over, remain unresolved. At the end of the civil war the then Head of State, General Gowon bandied the three R’s – reconciliation, rehabilitation and reconstruction – which turned out to be mere clichés, unfulfilled promises. But there was no reconciliation, no rehabilitation and definitely no reconstruction.   Nigeria’s Is More Fragmented Than Ever Before Nigeria has always been a country divided along religious, ethnic lines but it appears the Buhari administration by acts of commission and omission, exalted the inherent schism in the Nigerian polity. Shortly after the 2015 general elections in Nigeria, former Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Dahiru Musdapher asserts that the 2015 Presidential election further divided Nigeria, as the election was marked by demarcations along ethnic, regional, partisan and religious lines. Speaking as guest speaker at a lecture organized to mark the 75th birthday of the father of former Speaker of House of Representatives, Chief Alani Bankole, in Abeokuta; Musdapher said “it is rather worrisome that after over 100 years since the amalgamation of the northern and the southern protectorates in 1914, Nigerians seemed as divided as ever.” “I am scared and deeply worried”, he said, adding that “the situation is grave.” Bishop Matthew Kukah of the Catholic Diocese of Sokoto also iterated that Nigeria is now a more divided country. The mutual suspicion, distrust, lack of cohesion, marginalization, subjugation, religious intolerance and indigene-settler dichotomy continued to widen.   # Biafra At 50 Anniversary And IPOB’s Successful Sit-At-Home Order Why criminalize the individuals/groups whose only sin is agitating for self-determination? Similar to the IPOB sit-at-home order, the six Yoruba states in southwest Nigeria declared June 12, 2017 a public holiday in remembrance of Chief MKO Abiola’s botched presidential mandate. Have we forgotten how NADECO and other groups in southwest Nigeria agitated, gave Babangida and Abacha regimes sleepless nights after the junta annulled the June 12, 1993 election result acclaimed to have been won by Chief MKO Abiola, a Yoruba man?   The ‘Arewa Youths’ Quit Notice, Ultimatum To Ndigbo Seemingly rattled by the successful sit-at-home order and compliance in the southeast on 30th May, 2017, an amalgam of recalcitrant Arewa Youth organizations met at Arewa House in Kaduna state and inter-alia, gave Ndigbo living in northern Nigeria October 1st, 2017 ultimatum to vacate northern Nigeria. We have no moral latitude to criticize South Africans for launching sporadic xenophobic attacks on Nigerians living in their country when blatant xenophobia is entrenched in Nigeria. An Igbo proverb says, ‘’when you see a bird dancing by the roadside, it’s highly probable that someone within is beating the drums for the bird’’. While some northern governors tried to douse tension arising from the ‘Igbo quit notice’ by Arewa youths, it is apparent that the youths have the backing of some powerful northern elders. Three weeks after the threat on Ndigbo, none of the masterminds have been arrested or questioned by Nigerian security and intelligence agencies mostly headed by Northerners. This contrasts the hostile treatment meted out to Biafran activists. The Nation Newspaper reports that, Nigerian Security agencies advised the Nigerian government against arrest northern Youths who issued the threatening quit notice order on Ndigbo. Northern politician and a second republic lawmaker, Dr. Junaid Mohammed says there will be crises if police arrests Arewa youths. The question is: did those Arewa youth groups transgress the laws of Nigeria? Are they above the law? Has the security agencies arrested anyone in the past who seemingly committed a similar ‘crime’? It will be deemed an ‘injustice’, partiality if someone from the southeast, southwest or south-south dangles a similar threat to northerners and s/he is arrested? If the security agencies cannot arrest the Arewa youth, it follows that they will not dare re-arrest Nnamdi Kanu who has obviously violated the terms and conditions of his bail. The Arewa youths threat to Ndigbo should be taken seriously and not waved aside. This is how the pogrom of Ndigbo in northern Nigeria started in 1966 which spurred the declaration of Biafra in 1967. As we know, street urchins in the north otherwise known as Almajiri are well-known for their ‘herd mentality’.  Almajiris only hear ‘’go’’, they don’t hear ‘’come’’.   Politically Correct Leaders Playing The Ostrich Despite the intensely visible handwriting on the wall that Nigeria is coming apart at the seams, rather than acknowledge the home truth, take tangible steps to fix the problem, politically correct Nigerian leaders keep reciting trite clichés such: ‘One Nigeria’, ‘the unity of Nigeria is non-negotiable’. The special adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari on political matters Mr. Babafemi Ojudu gave hogwash reasons why the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Mazi Nnamdi Kanu was not invited to the Presidential Villa when the Acting President, Professor Osinbajo held a meeting with southeast leaders. Mr. Ojudu reportedly asserted that, ‘’Nnamdi Kanu was not asked to join the acting president and the South-East leaders in a meeting because the IPOB leader is not perceived as a leader of thought in the South-East’’. Continuing Mr. Ojudu said, ‘’…what we have done is to look at people who have influence in the communities, whether it is religious, whether it is traditional, whether it is political, social or governance’’. By their estimation Nnamdi Kanu doesn’t fit into any of the aforementioned pecking order? Fortunately or unfortunately, the Buhari administration inadvertently made the IPOB leader a folk hero. They should see and treat him as such.

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Biafra: How President Buhari Made Nnamdi Kanu A Folk Hero

/

Mr. Nnamdi Kanu would have passed unnoticed if the Buhari administration didn’t arrest and banish him in prison. His arrest and detention transformed him into a brand. – D.O Brief Biography of Nnamdi Kanu Nwannekaenyi Nnamdi Kenny Okwu Kanu or Mazi Nnamdi Kanu as he is popularly called, was born to Eze Israel Kanu and Lolo Uchechi Kanu of Isiama Afaraukwu, Ibeku near Umuahia, Abia State. It is trite to say that prior to now, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu was largely a nobody until the Buhari administration (in)advertently transformed him into a force, an international figure and a folk hero over his virulent clamour for the carving out of a Biafra republic from Nigeria. Mazi Kanu was a member of Chief Ralph Uwazuruike-led Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) but he reportedly parted ways with Chief Uwazuruike and subsequently established the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Before his arrest, very few people even amongst Ndigbo listened to his exuberant rants on his London-based online radio christened RadioBiafra. Like many youths of his age bracket, most were of the opinion that Mazi Nnamdi Kanu was simply disillusioned with the Nigerian project, particularly his perceived marginalization and injustice meted out to people of his ethnic extraction – Ndigbo. On 5 September 2015, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu was a guest speaker at the World Igbo Congress which was held in Los Angeles, California where he reportedly demanded for weapons in furtherance of his quest for the actualization of the sovereign state of Biafra. Kanu’s outburst at the World Igbo Congress became his undoing. He was arrested on 14 October, 2015 when he came to Nigeria from his London base and has remained in detention since then notwithstanding repeated court orders that ruled for his release. During his first media chat, in December 2015, President Buhari said the likes of Nnamdi Kanu and the erstwhile National Security Adviser, NSA, Sambo Dasuki, who is alleged to have masterminded the diversion of over $2bn intended for procurement of arms, will not be freed on bail because of the gravity of the offences they had committed. Buhari’s statement was an affront on the judiciary, not to mention, unbecoming of a president who swore an oath to uphold the rule of law and the Constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria. Recurring Agitation For Actualization of Biafra Predates Nnamdi Kanu Some people claim that the renewed quest for Biafran independence was a consequence of the failure of Goodluck Jonathan to win the 2015 presidential election and that the game-plan was to undermine the Buhari administration. This is far from the truth. Apart from MASSOB and IPOB, there is also the Biafra Zionist Movement (BZM). Renewed quest for Biafra predates the emergence of president Buhari. Chief Uwazuruike has been at the forefront of this project even during the presidency of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. One thing is sure, Biafra transcends Nnamdi Kanu. Biafra is akin to an ideology ingrained in the hearts and minds of a plethora of Igbo people, old and young. Perhaps this explains why Chinua Achebe’s parting gift, his last book is aptly titled – ‘’There Was A Country’’, a constant reminder to Ndigbo of an impressive dream that petered out. In the words of Nobel Laureate Professor Wole Soyinka: “once an idea has taken hold, you cannot destroy that idea…’’. “You may destroy the people that carry the idea on the battlefield, but, ultimately, it is not the end of the story.” “Let’s not take this position of ‘don’t even talk about it’, ‘under my watch this will never happen’, don’t say things like that. Professor Soyinka went further to say, “Listen to Biafrans and ask them why they want to stay (and say) ‘this is what we are ready to push as the overall authority in this area’. “Don’t go around saying ‘the sovereignty of the country is indivisible, it’s non-negotiable’ all that kind of language will only make matters worse,” he said. Why Igbos Want Biafra Granted not all Igbos are very keen on the Biafra project but most agree that Nigeria is not fair to the Igbos. In his essay: Nigeria is coming apart at the seams, Mr. Max Siollun queries: ‘’Why is the southeast once again considering secession when the region’s last attempt resulted in such horrendous suffering?’’ He provides an answer, saying, ‘’for three decades after the [Nigerian civil] war, military dictatorships suppressed all secessionist talk, leaving Igbos to wonder silently about what might have been. But after the country transitioned to democracy in 1999, latent separatist inclinations began to resurface once again. The resurgence of the Biafran secessionist movement is symptomatic of a much deeper problem with the Nigerian state. The federal government’s choke-hold on states and ethnic groups is fueling multiple demands for autonomy and the right to manage resources at a local level — demands that could ultimately lead to a fracturing of the country. A deep disillusionment with the Nigerian government also lies at the heart of the Biafran dream of independence. Igbos have long felt marginalized and excluded from economic and political power by the Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba ethnic groups, which have dominated national politics and the bureaucracy since 1970. Many Igbos believe that the federal government (and their fellow Nigerians) have never forgiven them for seceding in 1967, and have discriminated against them ever since. Younger Igbos born after the civil war tend to be more militant about Biafra in 2016 than their parents and grandparents, whose memories bear scars from the previous attempt at secession”. Nnamdi Kanu’s Bail After nearly two years in detention, on 25 April 2017, Justice Binta Nyako of the Federal High Court, Abuja granted bail to the detained leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, according to her on ‘’health grounds’’ but other co-accused persons: Benjamin Madubugwu, David Nwawuisi and Chidiebere Onwudiwe were curiously not granted bail. The release of Nnamdi Kanu on health grounds is arguably an exit strategy out of a quagmire

Scroll to Top