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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

FUEL SHORTAGES AND ELECTRICITY TARIFF HIKES IN NIGERIA

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Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country is riddled with an array of economic challenges ranging from fuel scarcity to rising electricity tariffs. These issues not only affect the daily lives of citizens but also have broader implications for social stability and security, particularly regarding criminal activities. Fuel Scarcity One of the most pressing challenges Nigerians are facing is fuel scarcity, which has been recurrent in the country. The shortage of fuel is linked to various factors such as inadequate refining capacity, pipeline vandalism, and inefficiencies in the distribution system. As a result, transportation, businesses, and essential services have been disrupted, leading to frustration and economic losses for both individuals and enterprises. In late April 2024, Nigeria faced fuel scarcity that caused long queues in major cities such as Lagos, Abuja, and Kano. The Nigeria National Petroleum Company urged citizens to avoid panic buying as the scarcity resulted from logistical issues. Despite their claims, fuel prices have significantly increased, with some areas reportedly selling as high as ₦1000/litre. This has caused concern among Nigerians, who are already facing economic challenges. Regarding logistical issues that have further aggravated fuel scarcity, criminal syndicates have been known to vandalize pipelines and steal petroleum products. These activities not only deprive the government of revenue but also contribute to environmental degradation and pose significant safety risks. Electricity Tariff Hikes Another challenge Nigeria is facing is the recent increase in electricity tariffs. On 3rd April 2024, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) approved an increase in electricity tariffs for customers under the Band A category to N225 per kWh, up from N66. The commission stated that customers under the classification are those who receive 20 hours of electricity supply daily. The government implemented this increase to address the long-standing challenges in the power sector, including inadequate infrastructure, low investment, and revenue shortfalls. The move is intended to improve service delivery, encourage investment in the sector and also eliminate the annual electricity subsidies of 1.14 Trillion Naira. This has sparked widespread discontent among consumers, particularly amidst the backdrop of economic hardships. The tariff hike places an additional burden on already struggling households and businesses, further exacerbating poverty and inequality. For many Nigerians, reliable access to electricity remains a distant reality, with power outages being a common occurrence in both urban and rural areas. Public Discontent The frustration and disillusionment stemming from these socio-economic hardships can fuel social unrest and exacerbate existing tensions within communities. On 27th February 2024, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) held protests in Rivers, Bayelsa, Abuja, Kaduna, Lagos, Ogun, Kwara, Ondo and several other states over the high cost of living in the country. In March, residents from Omagwa in Ikwerre Local Government Area protested at the Port Harcourt International Airport in Rivers State over consistent power outages. The protesters also blocked the route leading to the airport. Precursor for criminal activities The ramifications brought about by fuel scarcity and higher electricity tariffs create a fertile ground for criminal activities to thrive. In such an environment, criminal elements may exploit the vulnerabilities of disenfranchised populations, further destabilizing the social fabric. Unemployed youths may turn to illicit means to sustain themselves, including theft, robbery, and vandalism. Moreover, the lack of affordable and reliable electricity further compounds the challenges businesses face, leading to closures and job losses. This economic downturn can push more individuals towards criminality as they seek alternative sources of income to survive. Conclusion The recent hike in fuel prices and other economic challenges have recently been a major driver of calls for protests and shutdowns by various civil society, workers’ unions, and pressure groups. Unions such as the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) have given the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) until 12th May 2024 to reverse the electricity tariff or face unprecedented industrial action. Protests would incur the deployment of security forces to locations which may likely lead to clashes between security forces and protesters. Also, criminal gangs may likely use the chaos to carry out crimes without disruptions. To address these issues, approaches including infrastructure investment, policy reforms, and effective law enforcement strategies to combat criminal activities are required. As Nigeria strives towards economic growth and social development, ensuring access to affordable energy and mitigating the impact of fuel scarcity are imperative steps towards fostering stability and security within the nation.

INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria, Reports

EMPLOYMENT SCAMS IN NIGERIA AND THE NEED FOR BACKGROUND CHECKS

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One very common security threat in Nigeria although under-reported, is employment scams. This is an online criminal activity where scammers defraud unsuspecting job seekers of their money while promising to offer them jobs in renowned companies. These scams prey on the vulnerability and desperation of individuals seeking gainful employment in a country where job opportunities are often scarce and competition is fierce. When a company’s name is linked to employment scams, it loses trust and credibility with future employees, customers, and business partners. Amidst the growing concern over these scams, the necessity for public awareness and stringent background checks emerges as crucial safeguards against such fraudulent activities. Trends, Economic Context and Job Market in Nigeria In 2023, reports of employment scams continued to rank as the second most perilous type of scam worldwide, with investment scams being number one. These reports surged by 54.2% compared to the previous year. The median financial loss associated with employment scams stood at $1,995, notably exceeding the overall median loss of $100 reported across all types of scams. Concurrently, employment scams emerged as the leading concern for individuals aged between 18 and 35, particularly those embarking on their initial job searches or in the early stages of their professional journeys. Notably, this demographic segment accounts for approximately 60% of Africa’s population. According to the Nigeria Labour Force Survey Q3 2023 report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria witnessed a significant increase in its unemployment rate, rising from 4.2% in Q2 2023 to 5.0% in Q3 2023. The NBS also noted a decline in the labour force participation rate among the working-age population, dropping to 79.5% in Q3 2023, down from 80.4% in Q2 2023. In Nigeria, where the unemployment rate and economic hardship remain a pressing issue, job seekers often navigate a landscape fraught with pitfalls. The promise of a lucrative job with a reputable company can blind individuals to the red flags of potential scams. Scammers capitalize on this desperation by posing as representatives of well-known organizations or recruitment agencies, offering enticing job opportunities in exchange for upfront payments or personal information. In April 2023, a former Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System desk officer at the Federal Character Commission, Haruna Kolo, admitted to collecting money from job seekers in exchange for employment. He also admitted to having received over N75m from desperate job seekers on the instructions of the Chairman of the FCC. The Nigerian Army (NA) also expressed dismay over the alarming rate of the spread of fake online recruitment information, particularly regarding the Nigerian Army Direct Short Service (DSS) Recruitment Portal for the year 2023. Modus Operandi of Scammers The modus operandi of these scammers varies, ranging from fake job postings on legitimate websites to sophisticated phishing emails targeting unsuspecting candidates. They often employ persuasive tactics, such as offering high salaries or promising quick employment, to lure victims into their trap. Once the victim takes the bait and provides the requested payment or information, the scammer disappears, leaving the individual defrauded and disheartened. Despite the prevalence of employment scams, they remain significantly under-reported in Nigeria. Another uncommon mode of practice is the use of these fake job adverts to lure victims, kidnap them, and subsequently request ransom payments from family members. In the second quarter of 2021, a 26-year-old female graduate of the University of Uyo, Iniubong Umoren responded to a job vacancy she found online and was later kidnapped, raped, and murdered. Her body was later exhumed in a shallow grave in the suspected killer’s family compound, according to a statement by the state police command. It is also worth noting that many victims feel embarrassed or ashamed to come forward, fearing further exploitation or social stigma. Moreover, the lack of effective mechanisms for reporting and tracking such incidents exacerbates the problem, allowing scammers to operate with impunity and perpetuate their fraudulent schemes. It should be noted that not only job seekers are targeted by these employment scams, but renowned companies are also targeted sometimes when these scammers pose as bigger companies seeking partnerships. Mitigating Employment Scams To combat the scourge of employment scams, there is an urgent need to raise awareness about the prevalence of employment scams and educate the public about red flags. Collaborative efforts involving government agencies, law enforcement, industry associations, and the media are essential to combatting this multifaceted problem effectively. By fostering a collective understanding of the risks associated with job hunting in Nigeria, individuals can arm themselves with the knowledge and tools necessary to protect against exploitation and deception. For employers, the spate of employment scams also highlights the need for proactive measures, chief among them being the implementation of comprehensive background checks for potential and existing staff. Background checks entail verifying the credentials, qualifications, and employment history of job applicants to ensure their legitimacy and integrity. By conducting thorough background checks, employers can mitigate the risk of falling victim to fraudulent schemes and protect their organizations from reputational damage.

CURATED OSINT, HEALTH SECURITY, Reports

FIRE OUTBREAKS IN NIGERIA: CAUSES AND REMEDIAL MEASURES

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In 2024 so far, Nigeria has experienced a series of severe fire breakouts throughout all regions, causing substantial damage to property, loss of lives, displacement, disruption of businesses, and economic setbacks. These incidents have emphasized the critical need for more effective fire prevention techniques, emergency response mechanisms, and public awareness campaigns. URBANIZATION AND UNREGULATED INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY Rapid urbanization has resulted in overcrowded residential neighbourhoods and markets, increasing the risk of fire outbreaks due to the proximity of flammable materials and limited access to firefighting equipment. An incident highlighting this cause occurred in Kano State at Yan Katako Market in Fagge Local Government Area on February 26, 2024. At least 50 stores were destroyed, and investigations revealed that foam, plywood, and other carpentry tools may have fueled the fire. Additionally, unregulated industrial activities as a result of poor enforcement of safety laws in industries also lead to hazardous activities that can cause chemical fires and explosions. These incidents mostly occur at illegal oil exploration sites. ELECTRICAL FAULTS Electrical faults resulting from outdated electrical wiring, circuit overload, and inadequate maintenance of electrical appliances also contribute significantly to fire outbreaks in both residential and commercial structures. A fire incident suspected to have been caused by an electrical fault occurred on January 15, 2024, in Tudun Wada Local Government Area, Kano State, resulting in 7 fatalities. It is critical to emphasize the importance of regular maintenance and safety checks on building electrical systems. POOR FIRE SAFETY MEASURES Poor fire safety measures have also been a cause, as many structures lack basic fire safety equipment, including fire extinguishers, smoke detectors, and emergency exits, thereby worsening the severity of fires. In Lagos State, a fire outbreak at a popular 10-storey Mandilas building on Broad Street, Lagos Island Local Government Area, occurred on January 21, 2024. Due to the absence of basic firefighting equipment, the fire that began on the first floor escalated to the fourth before the arrival of the fire service. The incident displaced 6,700 traders and razed 450 shops, 30 offices, 2 hotels, and 5 restaurants. HIGH TEMPERATURES Nigeria’s current hot weather conditions increase the risk of wildfires, which can spread swiftly and cause significant damage. On January 26 and 27, in the Njikoka Local Government Area of Anambra State, wildfires erupted at secondary schools due to their proximity to bushes. MITIGATION STRATEGIES These incidents underscore the urgent need for comprehensive fire prevention strategies and improved emergency response mechanisms across the country. While efforts are underway to address some of the underlying issues, such as updating building codes and investing in firefighting infrastructure, more concerted action is required to tackle this growing crisis effectively. Addressing the underlying causes of fire outbreaks in Nigeria requires a multifaceted approach involving government agencies, corporate sector entities, and civil society organizations. Key interventions include the investment in Infrastructure by prioritizing the upgrade of electricity grids, firefighting equipment, and emergency response systems to increase preparation and resilience, public awareness campaigns to inform individuals about fire safety measures, such as correct use of electrical equipment, safe cooking methods, and evacuation protocols, empowering local communities to prevent fires and respond efficiently in emergencies through training programs and community-based initiatives, regulatory enforcement measures to ensure compliance with building codes, fire safety standards, and industrial rules and encouraging research and development activities to explore innovative technologies and tactics for fire detection, prevention, and suppression.   Image Source: Premium Times

CURATED OSINT, FOREIGN POLICY, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, Reports

SANCTIONS LIFTED: ECOWAS EASES RESTRICTIONS ON COUP-AFFECTED COUNTRIES

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The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), West Africa’s regional bloc, announced on 25th February 2024 during a summit in Abuja, Nigeria that sanctions against Mali and Guinea would be lifted. According to ECOWAS Commission Chief Omar Alieu Touray, sanctions such as the no-fly zone, border closures, and asset freezes would be suspended “with immediate effect” on “humanitarian grounds”. This comes a day after travel, commercial and economic sanctions imposed on Niger by the regional bloc were lifted however, some targeted sanctions on some key figures remained in place. The ECOWAS leaders had met to address and resolve the political crisis in the region as well as the announcement in January by the military leaders in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali to withdraw from the regional bloc. The move has been considered a sign of appeasement as ECOWAS attempts to persuade the three junta governments not to leave the regional bloc. ECOWAS also “further urges the countries to reconsider the decision in view of the benefits that the ECOWAS member states and their citizens enjoy in the community”. Former Nigerian Head of State and founder of ECOWAS, General Yakubu Gowon Rtd had earlier called on the removal of the sanctions on the four countries and warned ECOWAS was “threatened with disunity”. Economic Sanctions and Implications In response to the military coups in the region, ECOWAS and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) introduced rigorous sanctions on all three countries—and Burkina Faso. ECOWAS had earlier imposed sanctions on Mali to pressure the junta to return to constitutional order, although they were lifted in 2022 after a 24-month transition to democracy and a new electoral law was proposed. Regarding Niger, ECOWAS closed its borders and put stringent conditions after soldiers detained President Mohamed Bazoum on 26th July 2023 and installed a transitional administration. The sanctions, affected open movement and trade within the region, and restricted economic and social access. The sanctions forced Niger, to cut down government spending and default on debt payments of more than $500 million. Neighbouring Nigeria also cut off power which accounted for 70% of Niger’s total electricity supply in August 2023. The bloc also banned financial transactions with its member institutions in Guinea after Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ousted President Alpha Conde in 2021. Despite this, Guinea defied border closures imposed by ECOWAS and gave the Sahel states access to its port, enabling Mali to receive grain and fertiliser from Russia. The economic sanctions had broader implications for other countries in the region. According to reports, sanctions on Niger resulted in price hikes of a range of key goods in countries like Ghana. President Tinubu, President of Nigeria and Chairman of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government acknowledged the unintended implications of the sanctions and emphasised the need “must re-examine our current approach to the quest for constitutional order in four of our Member States”. Alliance des États du Sahel (Alliance of Sahel States) and ECOWAS exit In September last year, military leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger formed the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), in response to the threats of an ECOWAS military intervention in Niger after the military junta detained President Mohamed Bazoum. The resulting economic sanctions from both ECOWAS and WAEMU and tensions between juntas and ECOWAS exacerbated the geopolitical scenario, causing the AES to declare its immediate withdrawal from ECOWAS on 28th January 2024. The group also indicated that the sanctions were harming their people and also accused the bloc of being influenced by foreign governments. On the other hand, the exit of the AES from ECOWAS is projected to largely affect all ECOWAS projects and programmes worth more than $500m and $321.6m being executed by the region’s financial institutions. Additionally, the coup trend and fallout with ECOWAS increases the risk of political disorder and democracy and the spread of terrorism to the coastal states. There are also concerns that future juntas in the region would join the AES to evade ECOWAS demands to restore democracy fueling public resentment against the ECOWAS. Conclusion It is undeniable that the lifting of sanctions is a positive step in the right direction to promote dialogue between the juntas and the regional bloc. It is worth noting that the establishment of AES proved to be an effective bargaining tool in easing the sanctions on the military-led administrations and reducing pressure from ECOWAS to return to democratic rule. But the question remains, will the latest developments deter the AES from exiting from the ECOWAS regional bloc?

CURATED OSINT, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

POLITICAL CRISIS IN SENEGAL

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Senegal’s political stability is truly remarkable, considering that it has maintained its independence for 64 years without experiencing a military coup. Of the 54 states in Africa, only Botswana, South Africa, Cape Verde, Malawi, Namibia, Eritrea, and Mauritius have reached this feat. The current president, Macky Sall, announced on February 3, 2024, that elections will be postponed from February 25 to December 15, to ensure an inclusive, transparent, and fair election. Throughout the country’s history, the first and only election postponement occurred in 1966. National Assembly The postponement announcement caused a stir because it was issued a day before the candidate campaigns started, which added to the suspicions of election tampering amidst the ongoing investigation of the Constitutional Council members. Macky Sall attributed the announcement to disputes over the electoral candidates’ list. The National Assembly cast votes on February 5 to postpone the elections. Numerous irregularities related to the electoral procedure initiated a series of mass protests around the nation. Before the voting process began, security personnel withdrew opposition MPs and lawmakers from the premises of the legislative building, which led to multiple altercations between security personnel and opposition supporters. Internet services were also interrupted after the declaration of the voting results mainly to suppress the spread of information among opposition groups to prevent mobilization for possible protests. Mass Unrest and Government’s Response Irregularities associated with the National Assembly voting process triggered several protests across Senegal on February 5 as citizens took to the streets to register their displeasure with the outcome. Vandalism of property and the burning of tyres along main roads in Dakar, Ziguinchor, Saint Louis, Mbour, and Mbacke were the highlighting factors of these protests. Over 100 protesters were arrested by police while the use of tear gas was deployed to disperse crowds in Dakar. Clashes between security personnel and opposition supporters and observers also occurred outside the legislative building at Place Soweto in Dakar. Several opposition activists, lawmakers and members of Parliament were arrested on February 6 in anticipation of further protests in the Capital. 3 lawmakers from the opposition coalition Yewwi Askan Wi (Liberate the People) were arrested by security forces. At least 25 journalists were also arrested for reporting on protests in an attempt to allegedly intimidate the media. To add more pressure on the government, nationwide strikes by civil society groups were also announced on February 8. 13 of Senegal’s 20 presidential candidates also formed a collective group to file an appeal to the Supreme Court for what they described as a “Constitutional Coup”. Security personnel were deployed to major cities, including Thies in Dakar, Toulba City in Central Senegal, Richard Toll in northern Senegal, and Kolda in the country’s south. Situations however deteriorated when the use of tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets were fired towards large crowds who were burning tires and hurling stones at security forces. On February 10, students of the Gaston Berger University in Saint-Louis clashed with security forces leaving one dead and several injured. In remembrance of the student a silent march was held on February 13 by the Aar Sunu Election movement (Let’s Protect our Election) along the Jet d’eau roundabout route – Ecole Normale Superieure in Dakar. Days later, the violent nature of these protests took a turn on February 17 when the Aar Sunu Election (Let’s Protect Our Election) group organized a peaceful protest with authorization from security forces involving several political parties, religious groups and trade unions. Frequent interruptions of mobile internet were experienced across the country to hinder the dissemination of information and interfere with the organisation of opposition groups and their supporters’ participation in protests. Geopolitical Implications In response to heightened tensions in the country, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) urged Senegal’s political leaders to promptly reinstate the country’s electoral timetable in alignment with Senegal’s constitution. Foreign governments such as the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and France advised their citizens to increase vigilance and anticipate further unrest and road blockages, especially roads leading to the Blaise Diagne International Airport (DSS) in Dakar. Notably on February 9, the U.S. Embassy in Senegal issued a warning alert to all U.S. citizens about protest actions in major areas including Colobane, Fass, Medina, and Liberte 6 in Dakar, as well as Thies, Mbour, and Saint Louis. Constitutional Council’s Ruling The Constitutional Council of Senegal, ruled against the postponement of the election on February 15, describing it as unconstitutional. Foreign governments including France and the United States of America have issued statements recognizing the decision of the Constitutional Council and advising all election stakeholders to conduct a timely election in a free and fair manner. President Sall announced his intention to comply with the ruling of the Constitutional Council and his commitment to holding the presidential election as soon as possible. Current Situation On February 22, President Macky Sall announced his intention to step down at the end of his second term, which concludes on April 24, 2024. A two-day political dialogue, which will include civil society groups, political parties and candidates both approved and unapproved by the Constitutional Council, slated to commence, on February 26, aims to assist the government in determining an appropriate election schedule, which will be after the conclusion of his term. As a gesture of goodwill, several opposition MPs, lawmakers and activists who had been detained were subsequently released. However, the main opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko still remains in prison. Civil society groups, emboldened by the first authorized protest since the election postponement announcement, have organized another protest scheduled for February 24, with the objective of speeding up the decision-making process for the new election date. Forecast/Outlook Tensions are expected to ease across Senegal after President Macky Sall accepted the Constitutional Council’s ruling and announced he will step down in the coming months. It is also worth noting that heightened security is expected to persist nationwide in anticipation of unauthorized protests by opposition groups and activists at government facilities and public squares mainly

CURATED OSINT, Nigeria, Reports

NIGERIA, A NATION ON EDGE: UNRAVELING THE LINK BETWEEN ECONOMIC HARDSHIP AND UNREST

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Driven by soaring inflation and a rapidly depreciating currency, Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, finds itself in the grip of a severe economic crisis. The significant decline of the Nigerian currency has impacted businesses and citizens, prompting the need for dire solutions. From January 2023 to February 2024, the country witnessed a significant decline in the official exchange rate, plunging by 66% from 462 Naira per US dollar to 1700 Naira per US dollar. Simultaneously, this reflects an alarming gap that has impacted both local and foreign businesses operating within the country. Likewise, criminality and kidnappings have been on the rise, an effect of the current crisis. The hardships have also led to protests and unrest in the country. Economic Hardship In January 2024, inflation reached a debilitating 29.9%, the highest in decades, driven by soaring food prices. This harsh reality pushes nearly 46% of the population below the poverty line, making it difficult for them to afford necessities. Unemployment, especially among the youth, is alarmingly high with a 5.0% surge in Q3 of 2023. There is widespread political instability and corruption, further eroding public trust in institutions following the allegations or irregularities that marred elections held in February, March, and November of 2023. In addition, the country’s 16th President was sworn in on 29 May 2023, ushering in a new era of political actors and the imposition of pivotal policies i.e., the removal of fuel subsidies. Citizens anticipate further policy changes and the influence of external actors on domestic politics, adding complexity to an already volatile situation with anticipated pushbacks from labour unions and aggrieved citizens. Economic Crisis as a Breeding Ground for Criminality and Social Upheaval Nigeria’s economic crisis, with skyrocketing inflation and unemployment, pushes individuals towards perilous choices. Criminal activities have been fueled by the economic crisis, with threat actors exploiting the situation to vandalize public infrastructure as witnessed during the currency scarcity in February 2023. Additionally, the surge in crime and kidnapping highlights the link between hardship and crime. Some resort to kidnapping for survival, viewing it as a quick means to obtain resources. Others are lured by the seemingly easy profit, especially amidst reports of exorbitant ransoms paid for high-profile victims. High youth unemployment breeds frustration and resentment, creating a fertile ground for recruitment by criminal groups. Witnessing inequality and a lack of upward mobility can push some towards acts of violence as a way to express their anger and challenge the perceived unfairness of the system. Ultimately, the surge in kidnappings in Nigeria paints a stark picture of how economic hardship, political instability, and social injustices can intertwine to create a desperate and volatile environment Political instability fuels this crisis further. Weak governance and corruption act as recurrent factors, eroding public trust and leaving communities vulnerable. This lack of accountability incentivizes criminal activity, knowing the chances of capture and prosecution are low. Adding to the mix is the lack of opportunities and perceived injustice. Economic downturns can lead to unrest by igniting resentment. Demonstrations to express discontent have begun across Nigeria as seen in Oyo State on 19 February 2024. Geopolitical Variations Economic hardship affects Nigeria differently across its regions. The North East and North West face security challenges like Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Boko Haram insurgency, and banditry, driving some towards criminal activities. The North Central experiences protests and communal clashes as well as abductions and robberies. In the South-South, historical grievances cause discontent and conflict, fostering oil bunkering and kidnappings. The South East struggles with uneven development, while the South West deals with high living costs pushing some towards theft and kidnappings. These regional issues intersect with broader economic struggles, creating complex challenges. Conclusion The truth of Nigeria’s crisis lies in the undeniable link between economic hardship and the surge in criminality and social upheaval. From the North’s desperate struggle for survival to the South’s societal woes, regional nuances paint a complex picture. While current responses offer temporary relief, lasting peace demands systemic change. Empowering youth, tackling corruption, and building a just society are not just ideals, but essential steps toward a secure and prosperous Nigeria.        

CURATED OSINT, Nigeria, Reports, security analysis, SECURITY THREATS

THE ESCALATING THREAT OF ARMED ROBBERIES IN OGUN STATE’S STUDENT COMMUNITIES

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Armed robbery is the most predominant violent crime across the country including the South Western part of Nigeria. Ogun State which houses most of the higher institutions in Nigeria, has recorded a high robbery incident rate, precisely in Remo North and Ijebu-Ode Local Government Areas. At least four attacks have been recorded in these locations, a precedent which has triggered protests by some student populace. Students, who reside in hostels distant from the main school campus, with limited access to equipped security personnel have often been primary targets of these attacks in recent times. Factors such as low-level employment rate, socio-economic disparities, drug abuse, and cultism as well as the proliferation of arms, mostly locally made Small Arms Fire (SAFs), have increased the risk of robbery attacks in student communities. In Remo-North for example, students were victims of attacks at least three times between December 2023 and January 2024. MODUS OPERANDI The assailants attack students’ hostels at midnight, mostly between 2300-0200 hrs, to reduce detection of their movements. By breaking down doors or windows, the attackers gain access to their victims’ rooms, scaring them with guns to command cooperation. Reports on open sources have also revealed that those who refuse to cooperate are assaulted and injured, and in extreme situations, killed, as was recorded on 2nd December 2023, in Sapaade, Remo North LGA. NOTABLE ROBBERY ATTACKS Between December 2022 to January 2024, at least twenty incidents of armed robbery were documented in Ogun State, with a high rate of casualty and loss of valuables worth millions of naira during the attacks. On 24 October 2023, armed individuals attacked the female private hostels of the Tai Solarin University of Education in the Ijagun village in the Ijebu-Ode Local Government Area of the State and sexually assaulted at least four female students, while valuables including cash, laptops, and phones were stolen. Further information shows that an undisclosed number of students were injured during the assault. On 2nd December 2023, incidents were documented in the Ode-Ipara and Isara communities in the Remo-North Local Government Area of the State. A student was killed, while nine others were wounded after the assailants fired gunshots during the attack. It was stated that this attack occurred four days after students protested recurrent attacks in their community. The school was reportedly closed down for two weeks following the incessant armed robbery attacks on the students. IMPACTS ON STUDENTS Robberies have profound and detrimental effects on students.  Beyond the immediate loss of the student’s valuables, the psychological impact can be severe, leading to increased stress, anxiety, and a sense of vulnerability. The emotional toll may affect academic performance, disrupting focus and concentration. Students may also experience a decline in overall well-being, as feelings of insecurity persist. In some cases, financial strain arises from replacing stolen items, adding additional burdens. GOVERNMENT SECURITY RESPONSE The Public Relations Officer, SP Omolola Odutola, in a statement on 28th November 2023, announced the arrest of three suspected robbers involved in the attacks on the students. In another raid, five suspected robbers were arrested at the Oke Itoku area of Abeokuta. Two stolen vehicles were also recovered from the suspects. He further opined that a proactive operation was conducted based on intelligence, following a security meeting organized by the Commissioner of Police, CP Alamutu Abiodun Mustapha, in response to the shooting incidents at the Gateway Polytechnic. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SCHOOL AUTHORITIES Threats in institutions of learning have lingered for years, therefore, it is expedient for schools’ management to collaborate with security operatives to enhance security presence in student residencies. Another recommendation is for schools to establish clear communication channels for students to report any suspicious activities. Addressing the issue involves not only enhancing security measures but also providing adequate support services such as counseling to help students cope with the aftermath of such incidents. SECURITY AWARENESS, CRIME PREVENTION STRATEGIES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STUDENTS Ensure proper verification of locations before renting an accommodation. Report suspicious movements around the residence to the appropriate authorities. Remain vigilant. Avoid distractions like texting or wearing headphones that can make you less aware of your surroundings. Students are advised to walk in groups especially at night or in unfamiliar areas whenever possible. Don’t leave valuable items, such as laptops, smartphones, or cash, in plain sight. Avoid late-night movement. Exercise caution, and if caught off guard, stay calm and avoid struggling with assailants.     Featured Image Source: CC. TAUSED Website

CURATED OSINT, Nigeria, Reports, TERRORISM

THE INFIGHTING BETWEEN BOKO HARAM AND ISWAP TERRORIST GROUPS

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Boko Haram, founded in 2002, is a Nigerian jihadist group notorious for its insurgency, brutal tactics and attacks on civilians in the Lake Chad Basin. Initially, the group sought to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria. ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province), on the other hand, emerged in 2016 as a splinter group from Boko Haram, pledging allegiance to ISIS. ISWAP operates primarily in northeastern Nigeria, focusing on expanding its territory and influence. The historical ties between Boko Haram and ISWAP stem from ideological similarities and shared jihadist objectives. However, a rift occurred when ISWAP criticised Boko Haram’s indiscriminate targeting of Muslims and civilians, opting for a more strategic approach while Boko Haram initially aimed to purify Islam in Nigeria by rejecting Western influence and establishing Sharia law. Conversely, ISWAP emerged as a splinter group within Boko Haram, seeking closer ties with ISIS and a more aggressive approach towards establishing an Islamic state in West Africa. Ideologically, Boko Haram was more focused on local grievances, while ISWAP sought to align itself with the global jihadist movement. Infighting Between Both Groups Infighting within terrorist organizations is a common phenomenon driven by power struggles, ideological differences, and personal ambitions. It often weakens the group’s effectiveness and can lead to splinter factions or alliances with rival organizations. The infighting between Boko Haram and ISWAP terrorist groups has led to great losses-loss of lives, properties, and territories, on both ends over time. On 18th November 2023, around 70 terrorists were reportedly killed in a clash between the Boko haram and ISWAP groups at Tumbum Ali Island in Marte Local Government Area. In a similar occurrence, several Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters died in a clash in the Lake Chad Basin on 15th January 2024. Implications For Borno State And Beyond The recurrent infighting among the terrorist factions within Borno State exacerbates the already dire humanitarian situation, hindering efforts to provide aid and assistance to vulnerable populations. It also undermines governance structures and stability, hampering socio-economic development and further perpetuating cycles of violence. Although there has been a slight shift from direct attacks on civilians to inter-group battles, the violence still disrupts lives and livelihoods. Clashes displace communities, restrict movement, and hinder access to essential services. The fear and uncertainty created by the conflict further traumatizes a population already grappling with years of insurgency. Effects On The Security Landscape In Borno State And Neighbouring Regions The infighting has created a volatile security landscape, with increased uncertainty and instability. Armed clashes between rival factions, including militant groups and state security forces, have become more frequent, leading to heightened tensions and a greater risk of civilian casualties. Furthermore, the state’s porous borders allow for the spillover of violence into neighbouring regions, exacerbating regional insecurity. Regional And International Security Implications The conflict in Borno State has broader regional and international security implications, as it provides fertile ground for extremist groups to thrive and expand their influence. The presence of Boko Haram and other militant factions poses a significant threat not only to Nigeria but also to neighbouring countries in the Lake Chad Basin region. Furthermore, the proliferation of weapons and the displacement of populations may exacerbate existing security challenges and contribute to regional instability. Government Security Response The Nigerian military has launched offensives against both Boko Haram and ISWAP, aiming to weaken and dismantle their operations. International partners have also provided military assistance and intelligence sharing. However, these efforts have yielded mixed results. Conclusion While the infighting has arguably weakened both groups, it hasn’t eradicated the threat they pose. Clashes continue, and the underlying causes of the conflict remain unaddressed.  After years of infighting and power struggles between Boko Haram and ISWAP, the security landscape in Borno State remains highly volatile. While both groups share ideological similarities, their rivalry has led to violent clashes and shifting alliances, further complicating the security situation in the region. Despite occasional ceasefires and peace talks, the underlying tensions persist, posing significant challenges to efforts aimed at restoring stability and peace. Addressing the fractured insurgency requires a multifaceted approach that combines military operations with comprehensive socioeconomic interventions. This includes efforts to address the root causes of extremism, such as poverty, unemployment, and marginalization, while also strengthening governance and the rule of law. It is also worth noting that reconciliation efforts face numerous challenges, including deep-seated grievances, distrust between opposing factions, and the presence of spoilers seeking to derail peace processes. However, successful reconciliation can lead to stability and the reintegration of former insurgents into society. Conversely, failure to reconcile may result in further fragmentation of the conflict, with splinter groups continuing to pursue their goals through violence. Additionally, regional cooperation and intelligence-sharing are essential for effectively combating cross-border threats and preventing the spread of violent extremism. International support, both in terms of resources and capacity-building, is crucial for implementing sustainable solutions and preventing further escalation of the conflict.   Image Banner Source: Zagazola

CURATED OSINT, Nigeria, Reports, security analysis, SECURITY THREATS

THE ETHNO-RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS OF THE PLATEAU CRISIS

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Plateau State, over the years, has been a hotspot for ethnic-religious conflicts due to various religious and cultural identities. These conflicts result from societal imbalances between groups like the Berom farming localities and Fulani herders. Territorial possessions in this fertile zone emerged as conflict grounds driving rivalry among locals. Various ethnic groups, consisting of Berom, Fulani, and Hausa largely fraternised under religious groupings majorly Christianity and Islam. Ethno-religious Dynamics The majority of the violence recorded in the state is mostly attributed to either religious or ethnic dimensions and at times a combination of both This includes recurrent attacks between groups leaving hundreds displaced. Conflicts over resources such as land and water fueled by perceptions of marginalization and the quest for power and control have exacerbated these issues. The turning point was the massive violence in the state capital Jos in September 2001 (commonly referred to as the Jos crisis) which claimed around 1,000 lives.  Challenges Associated with the Violence Identifying the perpetrators of the attacks poses one of the most challenging obstacles in addressing the violence. Currently, there are no established groups or militias with a recognized organizational structure. No individual or entity has come forward to openly claim responsibility for the violence. While various organizations representing diverse political, economic, and social interests exist across the state, they do not publicly endorse or advocate violence. The Christmas Eve massacre of 2023 in Bokkos and Mangu attests to the conflict’s enduring brutality. During the attack, more than 160 Villages (44 in Bokkos, 11 in Barkin Ladi and 109 in Mangu LGA respectively) were overrun by unknown attackers, resulting in over 409 houses burnt down, 335 deaths, 171 injured with an estimated 18,275 people fleeing from their homes to seek refuge in other parts of the state and neighbouring environs. Way Forward To tackle the challenges arising from ethnic and religious differences in Plateau State, it is important to adopt a comprehensive approach. This includes facilitating dialogue among diverse groups, promoting mutual respect for different backgrounds, and effectively resolving conflicts. Furthermore, it is crucial to ensure equal opportunities for all citizens, improve governance, and promote inclusive growth. Guidance from religious and community leaders, along with support from advocacy groups committed to the well-being of the community, plays a pivotal role in establishing trust, promoting tolerance, and cultivating a peaceful atmosphere. Joint initiatives that bring together government agencies and civil society organizations are essential for creating a setting conducive to open dialogue, mutual understanding, and reconciliation.

CURATED OSINT, DEFENSE, Nigeria, Reports, TERRORISM

SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES OF AIRSTRIKES IN NIGERIA’S COUNTER-TERRORISM STRATEGY

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Introduction Terrorism is one of the most significant threats to peace, security, stability, human rights, and social and economic development. The Nigerian Air Force (NAF) has deployed the use of airstrikes as a counter-terrorism measure to curb the operations of terrorist groups in Nigeria, which predominantly are Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram terrorists. These airstrikes are primarily carried out in Niger, Yobe, Zamfara, Borno, Nasarawa, Kaduna, and Katsina States. Successful Operations Successful airstrikes which entail disrupting terrorist operations by targeting their bases, supply routes, and commanders have been recorded by the NAF. These operations demand, but are not limited to, precise and timely intelligence, as well as cooperation between armed forces, intelligence agencies, and international allies to ensure precision targeting and minimal collateral damage. These operations may erode the group’s capabilities, reduce its operational area, and damage its ability to plan and carry out missions. On 10 August 2022, the Nigeria Air Force (NAF) launched air strikes, killing 28 bandits, including bandit leader Alhaji Shanono in North Central Kaduna State. On 2 November 2023, the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) under Operation Hakin Kai fired airstrikes at terrorist camps and reportedly neutralized 160 terrorists in Geidam and Gwoza Local Government Areas in Yobe and Borno States. On 6 November 2023, the NAF reportedly neutralized an unconfirmed number of terrorists in Asagar village, Mobbar Local Government Area, Borno State. On 11 October 2023, at least 100 bandits were reportedly killed by the airstrikes of the Air Component of Operation Hadarin Daji (OPHD) in the Maru Local Government Area of Zamfara State. Collateral Damage Airstrikes can do significant damage to terrorist groups, but these operations frequently have limitations that inadvertently cause civilian casualties or damage infrastructure, leading to public backlash and negative sentiment towards the government or the forces conducting the strikes. According to reports, between September 2017 and 2023, military accidental bombings killed an estimated 425 people. In Borno State, on 17 January 2017, an accidental airstrike on an Internally Displaced Person’s camp in Rann Town, Kala Balge Local Government Area resulted in 172 casualties including 52 fatalities, and on 13 April 2020, 17 people, including children, were killed after a NAF fighter jet bombed Sakotoku village in Damboa Local Government Area of the State. In Katsina State, a NAF fighter jet struck Kunkuna village in the Safana Local Government Area resulting in 14 casualties including a fatality on 7 July 2022. In Niger State, a NAF fighter jet reportedly fired a bomb targeted at terrorists in Kurebe village in Shiroro Local Government Area which resulted in 6 civilian fatalities, all children in April 2022.  Similarly, in January 2023, an accidental airstrike at the border linking Benue and Nasarawa states at the Doma Local Government Area in Nasarawa State resulted in 37 fatalities. Most recently, an accidental airstrike occurred at Kaduna State during Maulud celebrations in Tudun Biri of the Igabi Local Government Area resulting in 151 casualties, including 66 fatalities on 3 December 2023. Conclusion    Although airstrikes can be part of counter-terrorism efforts, their success depends on a larger strategy that includes intelligence gathering, socioeconomic development, governance improvements, community engagement, and diplomatic measures to address the root causes of terrorism and prevent its resurgence. Image Source: Daily Post/Humangle

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