ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE

CURATED OSINT, ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria

TRANSFORMER VANDALISM: A THREAT TO NIGERIA’S POWER SECTOR

Bulwark Intelligence / May 22, 2024

Since the privatization of power distribution in 2014 in Nigeria, there has been a growing trend of transformer vandalism in parts of the country. These acts, which have implications for communities and the economy, are often driven by the need to retrieve valuable materials such as copper cables, which are melted for jewellery, as well as transformer oil, bolts, and nuts. This leads to power outages, disruption of activities, endangered lives, and, in some cases, loss of life in communities. INSIGHTS This problem is not limited to specific areas but is experienced across all geopolitical zones, disregarding security trends associated with certain regions. Ikeja Electric Plc reported that over 24 transformers were vandalized between 25 April and 9 May 2019 in Igando, located in Alimosho Local Government Area, Lagos State. Similarly, between February and March 2018, the Jos Electricity Distribution Company (JEDC) stated that 100 electricity transformers were vandalized, while in October 2023, JEDC also emphasized that an average of 50 transformers were vandalized daily in its coverage area. In Edo State, the Benin Electricity Distribution Company (BEDC) reported that 39 transformers were vandalized between January and May 2019 while in Enugu, the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC) stated that over 20 transformers were vandalized across the company’s franchise network within the southeast between 11 June and 2 July 2022. In Rivers State, the Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company (PHEDC) reported that 11 transformers were vandalized in different locations in the Eket Local Government Area of the state between July and December 2023. The Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC) reported that between March and January 2017, over 250 transformer substations valued at over N800 million were vandalized across its franchise areas. Recently, IBEDC recorded over 45 vandalism cases in 2024. In certain situations, vandals sometimes succeed in their attempts, and in other instances, they are apprehended after committing their crimes. In April 2024, six suspects were apprehended for allegedly vandalizing transformers and power substations in Damaturu, Yobe State. CAUSE AND EFFECT The repercussions of transformer vandalism are multifaceted, precipitating power outages that ripple through communities, disrupting essential services and economic activities alike. This disruption, combined with the inherent risks of electrocution and fire, emphasizes the critical need for preventive measures and strong enforcement. On 4 September 2023, an individual was electrocuted while purportedly trying to damage a transformer in the Amawbia community in the Awka South Local Council of Anambra State Economic incentives, fueled by the lucrative market for copper cables and other valuable materials, incentivize theft, amplifying the socio-economic toll. These criminal acts not only undermine productivity and revenue but also disrupt activities in affected communities. Compounding the issue, transformers often stand vulnerable in remote or inadequately guarded locations, rendering them susceptible to exploitation. This vulnerability highlights systemic shortcomings in security measures, necessitating comprehensive strategies to fortify infrastructure resilience. Moreover, lax enforcement of laws and inconsistent penalties exacerbate the problem, creating an environment of impunity. Strengthening legal frameworks and implementing stringent penalties are imperative steps toward deterring such illicit activities and safeguarding vital infrastructure. IMPACTS The vandalism of transformers presents significant societal challenges ranging from social implications, developmental degradation, educational setbacks, increased crime rates and healthcare service disruptions. These activities put a strain on community relations and compromise the quality of life resulting from truncated livelihoods dependent on power. Additionally, the prolonged power outage severely hampers the economic growth and development of the affected communities. Hospitals and clinics reliant on electricity for operations may face difficulties in providing adequate care. Additionally, educational facilities, including schools affected by power outages, may struggle to maintain consistent learning environments. It is also worth noting that recurrent blackouts create opportunities for fraud, theft, and exploitation while prolonged power outages lead to increased premeditated crime rates and limit the visibility of security operations. CONCLUSION It is imperative to recognize that transformer vandalism poses profound risks beyond mere power outages, extending to life-threatening consequences. Therefore, addressing this issue requires multi-faceted approaches such as increased security measures, community inclusion and collaborative enforcement. The installation of security cameras, fencing, and enhanced guard patrols at substations can serve as deterrence mechanisms to curb this worrying trend. The implementation of smart grid systems with tamper-proof features can also enhance security. It is also important to educate the public about the consequences of these acts and the significance of protecting critical infrastructure. Residents must be involved in reporting suspicious activities through community-driven initiatives. Utility companies and government agencies must also collaborate to investigate and prosecute offenders and enforce stricter penalties to disincentivize against potential offenders. Image Source: The Guardian

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

FUEL SHORTAGES AND ELECTRICITY TARIFF HIKES IN NIGERIA

Bulwark Intelligence / May 10, 2024

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country is riddled with an array of economic challenges ranging from fuel scarcity to rising electricity tariffs. These issues not only affect the daily lives of citizens but also have broader implications for social stability and security, particularly regarding criminal activities. Fuel Scarcity One of the most pressing challenges Nigerians are facing is fuel scarcity, which has been recurrent in the country. The shortage of fuel is linked to various factors such as inadequate refining capacity, pipeline vandalism, and inefficiencies in the distribution system. As a result, transportation, businesses, and essential services have been disrupted, leading to frustration and economic losses for both individuals and enterprises. In late April 2024, Nigeria faced fuel scarcity that caused long queues in major cities such as Lagos, Abuja, and Kano. The Nigeria National Petroleum Company urged citizens to avoid panic buying as the scarcity resulted from logistical issues. Despite their claims, fuel prices have significantly increased, with some areas reportedly selling as high as ₦1000/litre. This has caused concern among Nigerians, who are already facing economic challenges. Regarding logistical issues that have further aggravated fuel scarcity, criminal syndicates have been known to vandalize pipelines and steal petroleum products. These activities not only deprive the government of revenue but also contribute to environmental degradation and pose significant safety risks. Electricity Tariff Hikes Another challenge Nigeria is facing is the recent increase in electricity tariffs. On 3rd April 2024, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) approved an increase in electricity tariffs for customers under the Band A category to N225 per kWh, up from N66. The commission stated that customers under the classification are those who receive 20 hours of electricity supply daily. The government implemented this increase to address the long-standing challenges in the power sector, including inadequate infrastructure, low investment, and revenue shortfalls. The move is intended to improve service delivery, encourage investment in the sector and also eliminate the annual electricity subsidies of 1.14 Trillion Naira. This has sparked widespread discontent among consumers, particularly amidst the backdrop of economic hardships. The tariff hike places an additional burden on already struggling households and businesses, further exacerbating poverty and inequality. For many Nigerians, reliable access to electricity remains a distant reality, with power outages being a common occurrence in both urban and rural areas. Public Discontent The frustration and disillusionment stemming from these socio-economic hardships can fuel social unrest and exacerbate existing tensions within communities. On 27th February 2024, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) held protests in Rivers, Bayelsa, Abuja, Kaduna, Lagos, Ogun, Kwara, Ondo and several other states over the high cost of living in the country. In March, residents from Omagwa in Ikwerre Local Government Area protested at the Port Harcourt International Airport in Rivers State over consistent power outages. The protesters also blocked the route leading to the airport. Precursor for criminal activities The ramifications brought about by fuel scarcity and higher electricity tariffs create a fertile ground for criminal activities to thrive. In such an environment, criminal elements may exploit the vulnerabilities of disenfranchised populations, further destabilizing the social fabric. Unemployed youths may turn to illicit means to sustain themselves, including theft, robbery, and vandalism. Moreover, the lack of affordable and reliable electricity further compounds the challenges businesses face, leading to closures and job losses. This economic downturn can push more individuals towards criminality as they seek alternative sources of income to survive. Conclusion The recent hike in fuel prices and other economic challenges have recently been a major driver of calls for protests and shutdowns by various civil society, workers’ unions, and pressure groups. Unions such as the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) have given the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) until 12th May 2024 to reverse the electricity tariff or face unprecedented industrial action. Protests would incur the deployment of security forces to locations which may likely lead to clashes between security forces and protesters. Also, criminal gangs may likely use the chaos to carry out crimes without disruptions. To address these issues, approaches including infrastructure investment, policy reforms, and effective law enforcement strategies to combat criminal activities are required. As Nigeria strives towards economic growth and social development, ensuring access to affordable energy and mitigating the impact of fuel scarcity are imperative steps towards fostering stability and security within the nation.

CURATED OSINT, ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, Ghana, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

2023 AKOSOMBO DAM SPILLAGE: A CASE STUDY FOR BUSINESSES

t4ashiru.admin / November 7, 2023

Introduction On 15 September 2023, the Akosombo Dam began a controlled spillage at 183,000 cfs/day due to the continued rise of the water level. This was reportedly increased on 9 October 2023. The Akosombo Dam – also known as the Volta Dam – is a hydroelectric dam on the Volta River in southeastern Ghana in the Akosombo gorge and part of the Volta River Authority (VRA). This is not the first time VRA has spilt water from the Akosombo Dam as similar exercises were conducted in 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1974, and 1991, the most recent being in 2010. The spillage exercise, described as a disaster mitigation plan, began at a very low rate with no significant impact on downstream communities until 10 October 2023, when 6 spillage gates were opened to increase the flow as water-inflow to the reservoir increased and levels approached the dam’s maximum capacity. Impacts The spillage caused the Volta River’s banks to flood, displacing residents in the Greater Accra, Volta and Eastern regions. Residents in North, Central, and South Tongu District assemblies, Asuogyaman, Shai Osudoku, and Ada district assemblies were left with power outages, submerged houses and destroyed properties. Some lagoons in the Ketae, basin overrun their banks, flooding Anlo and Keta district settlements. In the Eastern region, communities upstream including Kudikope as well as communities downstream such as Abume, Kpedzi and Dzidzorkope among others were affected by the floods. The spillage also had a terrible impact on locals who live along the Volta River downstream, with Mepe in the Volta region being the hardest hit. Initially, 8,000 people were reported to have been relocated across 8 towns, but by 19 October 2023, that number had already risen to 31,000. Overall, an estimated 39,333 Ghanaians in 192 communities have been affected by the floods. Moving Forward: Recommendations The spillage underscores the vulnerability of communities residing in close proximity to major dams and the pressing demand for comprehensive disaster management strategies. For businesses, operating in high-risk areas, it is crucial to glean insights from this disaster and proactively implement measures to minimize risks. Preparedness and Response: To respond effectively in times of crisis, companies should build thorough disaster preparedness plans in partnership with local authorities. Create communication mechanisms and relationships with emergency services to ensure a coordinated disaster response. Risk Assessment and Mitigation: Conduct regular risk assessments to identify vulnerabilities and establish local mitigation solutions. Invest in flood barriers, pumps, and other flood-control measures to protect assets and people. Training and Awareness: Educate staff on how to manage crisis situations and raise knowledge of the significance of safety during floods and other natural disasters. Business Continuity Planning: Create and maintain solid business continuity strategies to guarantee that operations continue during and after a crisis. Consider supply chain resilience and diversification to reduce interruptions By adopting these recommendations, businesses can safeguard their interests and contribute to the resilience and well-being of the communities that bear the brunt of such disasters.

CURATED OSINT, ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, INTELLIGENCE, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

THE ESCALATING ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT: IMPLICATIONS FOR AFRICA

t4ashiru.admin / October 17, 2023

Introduction The year 2023 has undeniably been a year marked by significant geopolitical developments that have reshaped the global landscape of human relations and foreign policies. Without a doubt, there has been a consistent escalation of emerging threats and conflicts. One of these includes the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict which intensified when Hamas, a Gaza-based militant group, launched an attack along the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023. More than 1,400 Israeli and Palestinian fatalities have been recorded while 199 hostages have been held by Hamas militants since the attack. This has prompted a global shift in sentiment following the declaration of war, resulting in reactions from allies, detractors, sympathizers, and apathetic observers. Context The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has its roots in historical grievances, territorial disputes, and religious sentiments. Reflecting on the history of Israel and Palestine before and after 1948 and the Balfour Declaration is essential to understanding the roots of this conflict. Hamas’ attacks have alluded to the broader context of the escalating conflict. As diverse nations call for de-escalation, some maintain a steadfast stance in line with individuals subscribing to religious sentiments. In retrospect, the conflict has been fueled by territorial disputes that have deepened through attacks by militias and revolutionary groups aiming to protect their territories. Implications for Africa The positions taken by various African countries are influenced by public sentiment, diplomatic interest and religious affiliations. From Kenya, Sudan, and Algeria, to South Africa, the reverberations of this conflict have reached far and wide hence, this conflict presents a concern to the continent. African nations are affected to varying degrees, by foreign policies contingent on their diplomatic ties, economies, political ideologies, and the presence of Israeli and Palestinian diaspora communities. The evolving global landscape has broad implications for diplomatic relations and manifests as protest actions mainly in some Northern and Western African countries, as well as some regions in the south. Given that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict possesses religious elements involving Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, it has the potential to sow religious polarisation in countries like Nigeria. If the conflict escalates and becomes perceived through a religious lens, it could exacerbate existing tensions between Nigerian Muslims and Christians, particularly in the northern zones of the country. Such polarization could lead to inter-religious conflicts, a challenge Nigeria has encountered in the past. Conclusion It is worth noting that some African nations may face diplomatic strains because of their political affiliations concerning Israel. In addition to the rising production costs due to escalating prices, which have been noticeable since the beginning of the Ukrainian-Russian war, this conflict could have ramifications on the continent particularly as both Israel and Palestine are key players in Africa. In 2021, nearly two-thirds of Israel’s trade is conducted with South Africa, while Nigeria stands as the second most significant trading partner, with a trade value of $129 million. Meanwhile, there was a 34% increase in trade volume between 2009 and 2021 from Palestinian exports, including olive oils and food products.

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria, POLITICS

2023 AND THE IMPERATIVE OF AN ELITE CONSENSUS

t4ashiru.admin / January 17, 2023

Africa’s largest democracy, Nigeria, is at the cusp of what analysts predict is going to be a highly competitive election. On February 25th, 2023 Nigerians will go to the polls to elect their new president, vice president, and National Assembly Members; 109 Senators and 360 House of Representatives. Two weeks later, there will be elections for 28 state governors and the legislatures of all 36 states of the federation. Being the seventh general election since the return to democracy in 1999, the polls would consolidate 24 years of uninterrupted democracy in the country. A peaceful transition of power would signify progress for democratization in the country and the continent, especially in view of democratic backsliding in the subcontinent, but the polls would be conducted in a climate bogged down by insecurity, heightened religious sentiments, divisive national politics, and a cost of living crisis. A peaceful transition of power, much as Nigerians long for it, is not a given. Past experience indicates that an election can be a trigger for violence, with the potential for widespread social unrest. Prior to the 2015 election, there was a popular urban legend, or if you like, rumour, that the American Central Intelligence Agency predicted the disintegration of Nigeria after the 2015 general elections. This rumour ( which many still hold as a truth) had gained so much ground that many felt the successful conduct of the 2015 election cum peaceful transition of power was a defiance of the CIA’s “prediction”. That Nigeria defied the false prediction attributed to the CIA is not enough reason to induce heedlessness about our fate as a country. The price to pay for liberty is eternal vigilance so therefore we must not rest on our oars. Especially when a more difficult circumstance stares us in the face. Manufacturing a deliberate elite consensus has become imperative given the tense political climate of the country. At the core of this consensus should be a public and private commitment by Presidential candidates to play according to the rules of the game, and accept the results of credible elections, while grievances arising before, during, and after the elections should be channelled through the appropriate legal process. Any objections to the electoral outcome by either of the major candidates that are not law-abiding provide the perfect opportunity for chaos to be ignited. A combination of this with the pre-existing insecurity threats has the potential to wreak havoc in the country. An unstable country would give terrorist groups like Boko Haram, ISWAP, and IPOB leeway to perpetuate their atrocities further. President Jonathan singlehandedly cemented his status as a statesman and saved Nigeria from the precipice by conceding to President Muhammadu Buhari through a phone call congratulating him. His exemplary conduct prevented the country from cascading into a political crisis. Given this positive precedent, It’s in the enlightened self-interest of the Nigerian political elite to emulate and ensure that the competitive election doesn’t cause an implosion post-2023 because no candidate’s ambition should supersede the stability of the country. The National Peace Committee was born in 2014, out of a need to respond to emerging threats associated with the 2015 election, the committee consists of members who are elder statesmen, and was saddled with the mandate to contribute efforts towards ensuring the peaceful conduct of the 2015 elections, devoid of any breakdown of law and order before, during and after the electioneering process. The committee maintained its mandate since then and has introduced the idea of a peace accord, ” intended to commit candidates to accept the outcome of the votes as long as it is adjudged to be free, fair and credible“. While also “committing all political parties presidential candidates and their spokespersons to peaceful political campaigns and rallies devoid of violent incitement and personal insults”. Laudable as the initiative of the committee is, the truth remains that peace and stability can hardly be reaped when virulent rhetoric and demagoguery are sown. Essentially because violence is almost always preceded by incendiary rhetoric. Politicians are adept at ethnoreligious messages or framing an election as a competition between regions to galvanize their constituencies through Us Vs Them narratives. This keeps people agitated and on the brink, making them potential footsoldiers for violence. In view of enlightened self-interest, the elite must soft-pedal on any form of rhetoric that tilts Nigeria towards instability due to the outcome of the 2023 election. It is imperative that we all tread with caution. For the first time since 1979, the dominance of the two major parties is threatened by “mushroom parties” raising the hopes of many that the outcome of the election is going to be unprecedented. Many are unsatisfied with the performance of President Buhari, leading them to see the election as an opportunity to try something “new” in hopes that it would lead to a leadership that’s responsive to the needs of its citizens, revamps the failing economy, tackles insecurity and reform governance. The emergence of the Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party could potentially cause a paradigm shift that impacts the election remarkably. So much so, that some predict a victory for one of the “newbie” parties, while others anticipate a rerun. Projections are forecasts that could either happen or not, but what is of importance remains how do we manage expectations and dashed hopes if the outcome disappoints not a few? The Presidential candidates of the two major parties both carry sociological baggage; the candidate of the All Progressives Congress is running a same-faith ticket, a candidacy that though not unprecedented, contravenes the spirit of the federal character principle and the democratic tradition; that the two most senior offices in the land be held by leaders from its two main religions – Christianity and Islam. Likewise, the Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate hails from the north of Nigeria, which is considered by some a violation of the party’s “zoning agreement”, which stipulates that a southerner should be its candidate this time around. A victory by either is

CURATED OSINT, ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria, POLITICS, Reports

DYNAMICS OF THE 2023 ELECTIONS

t4ashiru.admin / December 10, 2022

In less than 100 days, The Federal Republic of Nigeria would conduct a high-stakes Presidential election amidst global and national uncertainties. Being the seventh general election since the return to democracy in 1999, the polls would be consolidating more than two decades of uninterrupted democracy in the country. Despite this progress for democratization, the polls would be conducted in a climate bogged down by insecurity, heightened religious sentiments, divisive national politics, and a cost of living crisis. Bar the 2015 election (because the opposition pulled an unprecedented defeat against the incumbent), the upcoming election is poised to be the most interesting because this would be the first election since ’99 where the dominance of the two major parties is threatened by “mushroom parties”. For the first time since 1979, Nigeria has a number of major candidates emanating from different geopolitical zones and representing competing interests, hopes, and aspirations. The much-anticipated election is expected to be competitive like never before in Nigeria’s history. The dynamics of the election are unending but we discuss a few such as youth participation, religion, technology, a paradigm shift, voter turnout, and information warfare. Youth Participation The interest and enthusiasm of the youth in the upcoming election have been nothing short of remarkable. Whether in terms of policy planning, advocacy, mobilization, and political party participation, the youth seem to be giving their all. Significantly, Nigerian youth make up more than 60% of INEC’s voter register. Theoretically, the election is theirs to decide. In reality, turnout amongst this demography on election day has always been an albatross, and without it this demographic can’t pose a formidable threat to the status quo. In terms of contesting for public offices, Nigerian youth are hindered by the astronomical cost of party nomination forms and campaigns. So while the youths might not be too young to run, they’re too broke to run. Hence, their political participation is largely limited to voting and not being voted for. Religion Nigeria is almost evenly divided between Muslims and Christians but this semblance of parity in demography has been unable to curb perennial heightened tension between adherents of either faith, leading to frequent showdowns, manifesting in forms of violent crisis, virulent rhetoric, and competition for power. Political power is likened to the holy grail for adherents of either religion as religious leaders are never relenting in mobilizing their congregation to vote “one of theirs”, in most cases at the expense of competency. The desire of having “our own” presiding over the affairs of the country trumps every form of scrutiny and history has shown that religious sentiments strongly influence voter choice. Recently, the Redeem Christian Church of God, with quite a large number of congregants established the Directorate for Politics and Governance to direct the affairs of its members seeking political offices. In Northern Nigeria, there’s a long-established political culture of religious leaders playing instrumental roles in the voting choice of their congregation. History has shown that ethnoreligious sentiments strongly influence voter choice and that is why politicians and religious leaders are hell-bent on exploiting it. APC’s decision to field a same-faith ticket has exaggerated the influence of religion in the election and caused a formidable backlash that’s likely to reflect on the ballot. Christian Association of Nigeria has been unequivocal in their opposition to APC’s decision but their strong stance is been met with rumors in Northern Nigeria that this is because Christians have an agenda to determine who rules the country. This mismatch is a pointer to an ethnoreligious voting pattern in the election and a deeply divided polity post-2023. As is common with the election season, the fragile unity of the country is being strained by politicians exploiting the stark fault lines in the competition for power. The 2023 election wouldn’t be different, especially because of the apparent dynamics. Technology The new electoral act empowers INEC with the authority to introduce technological innovations such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), INEC Results Viewing Portal, and electronic transmission of results, to enhance the integrity of the electoral process and inspire public confidence in the election. BVAS is an electronic device designed to read Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and authenticate voters – using the voters’ fingerprints – in order to prove that they are eligible to vote at a particular polling unit. Speculations are rife on politicians being jittery about BVAS for it is a technological feature that impedes rigging and increases the difficulty of elections being manipulated. INEC Results Viewing (IREV) Portal has emerged as an innovative way to promote transparency in the results collation process thereby boosting public confidence in the integrity of the electoral process and promoting accountability. INEC test ran this innovation in Osun and Ekiti off-season elections and Nigerians witnessed real-time transparency as it largely prevented malpractice during the physical transmission of results from polling units to collation centers. The 2023 general election is going to be the first national poll whereby results would be transmitted electronically. Election transmission of results reduces the element of human error. Though not a silver bullet because it’s vulnerable to hacking, it undoubtedly increases the integrity and credibility of the election. It behoves INEC to solidify its firewall as cyber attackers are unrelenting. Vulnerabilities in electronic transmission and INEC’s firewall can give hackers the opportunity to tamper with the votes of the people. Ultimately, the silver bullet isn’t technology but a willingness by political actors to play according to the rules of the game. Paradigm Shift The Nigerian political party terrain has largely been dominated by two parties, with a third party finding it difficult to make any noteworthy impact. But the upcoming election promises to be a break from this pattern, as the APC and PDP face stiff competition from Labour Party and New Nigeria Peoples Party making 2023 a high-stakes election. PDP’s control of the South-East is now in danger of being eroded by the remarkable support of Obi. The major opposition party would have to redraw its electoral

CRIME, CURATED OSINT, ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, Maritime Security, Nigeria, Reports

UNRAVELING OIL THEFT AND ITS IMPACT ON THE NATION’S ECONOMY

t4ashiru.admin / September 8, 2022

In light of the recent spike in oil losses, the Nigerian economy is currently in desperate need of resuscitation and restructuring. Reports indicate that between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels of oil are lost each year due to illicit theft and the government’s incapacity to control the operations of local criminal syndicates and separatists militants operating within the Niger Delta. However, analysis and claims by the Chief of Naval Staff contradicts the impractical evaluation owing to the distinction between the strategic terms which stipulates oil losses happen when there is known output, particularly during shut-ins and forced circumstances, preventing the Federal Government from earning the revenue it should while oil theft involves siphoning crude oil from vandalized pipes into ships by criminals involved in oil bunkering. The case of oil theft and oil losses seeks to unveil the disparities in the oil producing process as it remains unrealistic for the transportation of the unspecified amount of stolen crude oil without being noticed owing to the significant presence of security forces tasked with monitoring the Maritime border areas. An alarming example is the arrest of oil thieves on a 3-million-barrel-capacity MV HEROIC IDUN, a supertanker which fled from Nigeria’s AKPO oilfield when its activities were uncovered by operatives of the Nigerian Navy. This indicated renewed collaboration among Gulf of Guinea countries, it also unveiled an interwoven criminal web with various culprits which is what we find at the end of the short stick of a $300 million loss within if the ship was not discovered. From irregularities within the chain of command and documentation procedure to the unspecified figures in ascertaining the exact loss, the oil theft and losses the nation suffers is a tragedy in itself. In hindsight, the allegation made by the President of Nigeria following an interview with Bloomberg on 21 June 2022 which linked the vandalism and Oil theft to the activities of IPOB and its affiliation with international criminal bodies which has led to an upsurge in insecurity within the Oil producing states may seem far fetched and overestimated. This evaluation does not vindicate IPOB activities which has impacted the state of security within the Southern part of the country, however, the consistent losses reveals a more intricate and complex deficiency in the governing bodies, high level security operatives and structures which have enabled a lax and easy access for collaborations with local and international criminal syndicates within the Niger Delta. An unintentional disparity exists between the actions of separatist groups that dates back to the founding of the country and the struggle for control of the resources in some regions of Nigeria. The belief that the distribution of resources does not match the distribution of revenue within the nation’s budgeting system is one of the foundation for the emergence of separatist groups from an economic standpoint.This has proven problematic because Nigeria depends largely on the extraction of oil, which is the main natural resource present in the country’s south and southeast, notably the oil producing states which consist; Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo and Rivers state. Nigeria produces 8% of OPEC’s total daily production and 3% of the world’s volume, making it the world’s 12th largest petroleum producer on the global market (NNPC, 2000). However, the country suffers the greatest loss in petroleum resources as a result of oil theft and oil losses within the Niger Delta region of the nation. According to estimates, 15% of Nigeria’s daily 2.4 million barrels of oil are stolen. Oil theft, or “bunkering,” happens majorly within the Niger Delta area, however, unaccountability of security forces tasked with protecting the nations reserves and the upsurges in oil theft in recent times goes beyond monetary value and the loss in revenue as another troubling issue remains the health risks to residents. Residents and local governing structures fail to understand that accountability cuts across all the regulatory bodies, as more areas are at risk of the health hazard attributed to pollution from soot and the destruction of the ecosystem which has a long lasting impact. This remains a case of encouraging the small fires and watching the house burn while blaming the flames and not taking actions, at this rate, the responsibility cuts across every actor on the board. Furthermore, it is agonizing to reveal that in the era of advanced technology which Saudi Arabia has employed in regulating and monitoring crude oil production, our process remains rudimentary for a country where 95% of export revenues is dependent on oil production and the fourth-lowest percentage of all government revenue are derived from oil. In Mexico, which produces a comparable amount of oil, just 5,000 to 10,000 barrels are stolen daily. Given this development, it would be reasonable to infer that the fear of Oil theft would be the main factor affecting the nation’s economy and security; nevertheless, this assumption is invalidated by the loopholes within the oil producing sector highlighting the dismissal of the President’s allegations by IPOB members, claiming an underlying scheme involving high profile individuals and governing bodies in the saga of the ‘’Mysterious case of the stolen oil reserves’’. The attention has shifted away from the root of the unrest connected to the nation’s riches due to the agitations from concerned citizens. Although militancy has significantly impacted the South South and South Eastern parts of the country, it is within the best interest for the nation at large if the focus is placed on the right questions which may include: Who are the major high level players involved in the oil theft cartel? However, the separatists ideology, which is ingrained in the mind of some minorities and the demand for “resource control” by local activists, has stirred significant tension overtime, It is undeniable that the insecurity in the southern region has an impact on the Niger Delta which is the most noteworthy oil supply source. From the militancy threat to unbalanced records and crooked officials, there has been a virtual progression from where the indication

CURATED OSINT, ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, FOREIGN POLICY, GLOBAL SECURITY, Reports

WHEN SANCTIONS BACKFIRE

t4ashiru.admin / September 6, 2022

To penalize Russia for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the west responded with a barrage of sanctions to restrict its capability to fund the war and straiten its political and economic elite. Since the sanctions began, gas prices have soared in Europe, Africa and other parts of the world, underscoring the strategic relevance of Russia. The prices of food worldwide have reached an all-time high as it is affected by disruption in the energy and agricultural sector both of which Russia and Ukraine are integral. Amidst these troubling happenings across the world, the Russian rouble is appreciating against the Dollar in an unexpected twist. The rouble, though at the receiving end of a western boycott and an onslaught of sanctions, is rising like a phoenix from the ashes. And it has in fact been declared the World Best Performing Currency. The sanctions have backfired and have proved to be counterintuitive. A case in point is the west paying increased energy prices created by its sanctions on Russia. Some analysts posit that as long as the sanctions persist on Russia; disrupting oil supply and triggering high prices, Moscow would continue to earn more than enough to fund its war because it’s fundamentally an energy economy. The USA sold the world an optical illusion that its sanctions were going to force Russia to withdraw troops or at least bring Putin to the negotiating table cap in hand, but the prevailing reality sharply contrasts this. Russia isn’t backing down and the effect of its recalcitrance is global. It is now audible to the deaf and visible to the blind that global sanctions against a country (Russia) that controls the energy reserves of Europe were not only indicative of tunnel vision but also a bad idea. Nevertheless, the sanctions aren’t without effect in Russia, Putin himself describes the sanctions imposed by the US, EU and their allies as a ‘premeditated hit to the entire domestic economy, to the social humanitarian sphere, to every family, every citizen of Russia’. His sensationalism aside, Moscow is weathering the storm. Why is the Rouble appreciating? The Russian rouble is strengthening primarily due to oil and gas revenue. Russia demanded EU countries pay for natural gas with the rouble and countries like Germany and Italy have complied by opening rouble accounts to purchase Russian gas. Russian central bank also imposed capital controls mandating foreign firms to exchange some of their earnings for the rouble. To give the rouble firm support, Russia pegged the currency with gold as a firm backing to withstand shocks. Now, besides raising rates and forcing companies to buy roubles, Moscow limited the number of dollars that Russians could withdraw from foreign-currency bank accounts and prohibited banks from selling foreign currencies to customers. However, Russia can’t import from the west due to its sanctions. Is the Dollar Threatened? The dominance of the dollar can be traced to the fact that it’s the world’s global reserve currency (meaning it’s the currency in which most international goods are priced and which most central banks hold in their foreign reserves). The dollar is also the global currency of oil trade. Hence, the term “petrodollar”, connoting the global practice of exchanging oil for US dollars, rather than any other currency. By driving Russia into China’s camp the US is unwittingly upending the U.S. dollar-based financial system because, during the recent BRICS Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the five-member economies — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – plan to issue a “new global reserve currency”. In Putin words “The matter of creating the international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our countries is under review,” he further adds “We are ready to openly work with all fair partners,”. Additionally, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are considering joining the BRICS group. Analysts believe the BRICS move to create a reserve currency is an attempt to undermine the US dollar and the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. The primacy of the Dollar is being challenged, only time will tell the consequences of this. Can the US balance punish Russia by not encouraging the more widespread adoption of rival currencies? What is the Endgame for the USA in this war? President Biden entered the war portraying the veneer that he did not want to make this a contest between the United States and Russia. Rather, he was exuding benevolence by helping a small country put up a spirited defence against invasion by its powerful neighbour. More than 100 days after, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin says “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,”. This explains why Biden has allocated $10.6 billion in US military aid to Ukraine since the Feb 24 invasion. The package includes surveillance drones, MRAP [mine resistant ambush protected vehicles, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, machine guns, rifles, ammunition and body armour. Weakening Russia is officially a policy objective of the USA. Hence, heavy funding that has contributed immensely in prolonging the conflict to the detriment of the average Ukrainian. In March, Biden said, “Confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent,”. But the actions of the US during the war reveal the downplayed reality that this is a battle for Ukraine in a proxy war between Russia and USA. Weapons shipment in billions of dollars from America to Ukraine can be traced to Washington’s military-industrial complex; an appellation that captures the collaboration between politicians, the military and industries producing platforms and weapons/defence system that allows it to maintain cutting-edge superiority over the world at the same time provide weapons and platforms to friends and allies at a cost. The military-industrial complex not just produces a weapon, it uses them to destroy societies. Russia’s Game Plan Russia has occupied and is in control of those areas of Ukraine’s territories that are rich in natural resources like oil, gas and minerals. Russia would

CURATED OSINT, ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

COMMENTARY: PROPOSED NATIONWIDE BAN ON MOTORCYCLES AND MINING ACTIVITIES IN THE COUNTRY

t4ashiru.admin / August 3, 2022

A little context The National Security Council said on Thursday, 21 July 2022, that it was considering a national ban on motorbikes and mining operations in the country as part of its effort to combat insecurity. However, Nigerians are struggling to see the link between insecurity threats to mining and a nationwide ban on motorbikes, especially considering the economic consequences of such a restriction on Nigerian households who make a living from commercial motorcycle services, particularly in latent and inactive threat environments in the country. However, with regards to the justification for the ban, in the words of the Attorney General of the country, Malami, “So, regardless of the means that is being considered for the possible banning, this is a sacrifice that we see as what will help address the security challenges and I think no sacrifice is too big as far as that issue is concerned. Less than a third of Nigeria’s 200 million population would be affected by a ban on motorcycles and so it was worth the sacrifice. Above all, if you are talking of banning motorcycles, for example, I think the number of people using these motorcycles is not up to 20 per cent of the Nigerian population. So if that percentage is called to make a sacrifice that is all-pervading or affecting over 200 million Nigerians, I think that sacrifice is not too much and is worthy of being considered.” While many have applauded this development, on the basis that it will enable the military to deal with the excesses of non-state armed groups (NSAGs), the view appears to ignore criminal modus-operandi and the uniqueness of certain threat environments, where motorcycle use by armed actors are possible one-offs or areas in which there are no occurrences of such, which does not warrant such a ban. Furthermore, these advocates underplay Malami’s “20% of the Nigerian population,” which is 43,720,262 (forty-three million, seven hundred and twenty thousand, two hundred and sixty-two) motorcycle operators for the offence of a few. Call a spade a spade Aside from the sentiment fuelled by the potential impact of a motorcycle ban, the actuality of risks posed by unregulated motorcycle operations appears to be at an alarming level, having been ignored for far too long. Various armed groups, require the use of motorcycles due to their manoeuvrability to transport members over difficult terrains, as well as being ideal for getaways because they can travel in areas where 4-wheel vehicles may be unable to access, and finally, in terms of aerial surveillance, bikes can be easily stashed. Bandits in over 500 motorcycles storming a town in Niger State while the governor is perambulating in Abuja to become the next APC national chairman. What a tragedy!!! pic.twitter.com/9HvC0tO7rt — Dele Amadi Bala ???? (@DAB4Justice) March 17, 2022 Aside from mining-related armed groups, the violence perpetrated by motorcycle riders, particularly in Lagos, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, and Borno States, is one too many. Many vandalism and murderous atrocities perpetrated by motorcycle extrajudicial mobs have received little to no accountability in terms of arrest and proper prosecution of perpetrators due to the country’s overabundance of undocumented operators. I am hearing of riots at Idi Araba because of Okada ban. Na him be say na Ilorin get me till next week be dat fa. pic.twitter.com/OoWVwF3p0a — Otunba Anibijuwon Alaratawonyo (@PeeGeeMax) June 7, 2022 The trend of motorcycled-enabled armed attacks goes to further question undocumented operators’ missing from our several vehicle user databases, also the possibility of many of these bikes being stolen questions our investigative outfits expected to track stolen motorcycles particularly since many of these motorcycles are expected to transport in large numbers from one region/state to another. It’s becoming more glaring there is a strong coordinated collaboration amongst these bloodthirsty bandits that bedevil Katsina and Zamfara States.Below is one of the top bandits arrested who claimed there were 150 motorcycles in their group alone, pic.twitter.com/05tAFpbOYy — Mohammed Yahaya Mohammed (@CitizenMohd) June 16, 2020 However, with the increasing popularity of criminals using motorcycles, states have several times banned the use of motorcycles to stem the tide. However, many of such bans have frequently failed to achieve the desired goal, due to loopholes in implementation and monitoring, and these measures tend to fizzle out after several months. Who is in Charge? Mining has been impacted by irregular interference from non-state armed groups (NSAGs) comprised of Jihadist armed organisations and a variety of other non-state militias, who actively operate around mining environments plagued by weak or absent Government regulations. #geolocation…. The Chinese operated mine attack by bandits in shiroro local government. Apparently, the army reinforcement was ambushed by the terrorist. It was a sophisticated attack…. let’s hope the narrative doesn’t go above bandits scenario pic.twitter.com/3yKECiA855 — m. u (@secmxx) June 30, 2022 Armed groups’ thirst for resources such as gold and other mineral resources primarily for their financial worth in the illicit trade in return for money used in buy-ins for recruitment/maintenance of insurgency, intelligence, the purchase of weapons on the black market, and in some cases possible targeted economic sabotage. However, the empowering of NSAGs largely comes from the illegality of mining operations undertaken by both Nigerians and multinationals, which most times necessitates the payment of large sums of illegal taxes to these groups for the usage of such mining sites which comes with protection from other NSAGs, law enforcement (except in cases where there is complicity), and possible local militias opposition. Failure to comply sometimes results in attacks on employees and properties. For Instance, Chairman of the Katsina Minerals Processors, Tasi’u Abdullahi, confirmed an incident reported around 11 January 2022, where bandits imposed a ₦10,000 levy for uninterrupted running of a gold processing site in Bakin Korama community in Magama (Jibia border town) of Jibia Local Government Area of Katsina State, It is also reported at around 70 small-scale artisan gold processing Sites had just began operations about two weeks before the bandit attack. To buttress their point, 5 operators were injured, 11 abducted, and two

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, INTELLIGENCE, SECURITY THREATS

Policing Nigeria During Covid-19 What are the Issues?

t4ashiru.admin / April 20, 2020

In Nigeria, at the time of writing, there have been 442 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 13 deaths. From March 30, states across the country have entered into lockdown with closures and restrictions on movement. In some areas the Nigerian Army has been bought in, and in others the Nigerian Police Force is ensuring compliance. This is a large task for even the most stable, secure and democratic country. And in a county where rampant insecurity has long been a dominant concern, while security providers are regularly deemed as inefficient and corrupt, the stakes are even higher. What are the issues to watch, and how can the need for safety and security be balanced against the prospective for abuses of power and clashes with the general population? The Nigeria Police Force have been called the worst in the world, with abuse by police officials, particularly the infamous SARS, being well-documented. The Nigerian Army too have been accused of violating human rights. Covid-19, with the current lockdowns in place, has created an atmosphere primed for abuse of police and military powers. The National Human Rights Commission have counted 18 people as being extrajudicially killed by security agents enforcing lockdowns in the first two weeks of operation. This led to protests by the community’s Itsekiri youth, who blocked the NPA expressway and burnt tyres to show their condemnation. It was reported that a soldier was killed, and later, a video of some soldiers threatening Warri women with rape and HIV infection went viral. Other extrajudicial deaths have occurred in Kaduna, Abia, Niger, Ebonyi and Katsina states. Elsewhere, videos have circulated showing beatings by police and military officials. Reports of undue harassment have too appeared. In Lagos, healthcare workers have been harassed by the police as they have made their way to their workplaces. Journalists have been harassed; Press freedom in Nigeria has already been in decline over recent years, with reason to believe that further crackdowns could accompany Covid-19. The Committee to Protect Journalists has already expressed concern about a requirement for journalists to carry an identity card to move around in Lagos, Ogun and Abuja. The requirement has not been clarified, nor have the punishments for failure to comply, and such restrictions appear as undermining press freedom rather than being necessary. This is not to say that measures to prevent the spread of Covid-19 should be taken lightly. Measures must be fair, and abuse of fundamental rights is never justified. At the same time, social distancing and certain precautions against the virus should be taken. With officials who are prone to taking bribes, this could see caution thrown to the wind and an unequal application of measures. It has been alleged that the both police and military officials have been taking N200 to N2000 bribes to allow people to pass road checkpoints; this is even darker when considering Joseph Pessu’s death at the Warri checkpoint. Traders have spoken of ‘levies’ to continue operating. And as funds come in for the fight against Covid-19, there are worries that this money will be pocketed by officials. There have been some promising signs. Last week, the Inspector General for Police released a statement warning police officers against infringing citizens rights. The Nigerian Army too put out a statement, encouraging people to report any unprofessional conduct, and have said they are addressing the Warri case. Nonetheless, given their track record, restraint and procedures for oversight must be put into place. Allegations of excessive force, harassment or corruption need to be investigated with officials held to account. In the past, oversight bodies have merely made recommendations and referred investigations back to the police, with officers seldom disciplined. Addressing this would provide a lot of headway. The authorities do need to be extra cautious of retaining good community relations during this time. There have been instances of riots surrounding Covid-19 prevention measures, particularly with places of worship. When the Agege Central Mosque in Lagos was reproached for a gathering of over 25 people, the worshippers, numbering about 300, charged at the police. Officers were attacked and their vehicles damaged. In Kusada, Katsina, a religious leader was arrested after he had continued to run prayers at a local mosque. His followers responded by storming the Kusada Police Station, attacking officers and subsequently setting the station ablaze. There have also been more general riots in Delta calling for an end to lockdown curfews and for food assistance. On top of clashes between state security agencies and the general population, vigilantes imposing lockdown orders have too met resistance. Countless vigilante groups exist throughout Nigeria. They are seen as key players in the enforcement of law and order, and thus there is no wonder that they are playing a role in the enforcement of Covid-19 restrictions. In Kaduna South, the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) acted to disperse traders and buyers during the stay-at-home order. A bloody clash ensued, growing worse when the CJTF called in police for backup. It is said that five were killed and many others injured. Kaduna youth have since taken to the streets to protest. In Akoko-Edo, the local Vigilance Group also moved to disperse large gatherings, with one incident turning violent and seeing three vigilantes sustain injuries. It is not entirely clear who was at fault; nonetheless, vigilantes, alike state forces, must be held to account and maintain community relations. During the Covid-19 pandemic and resulting lockdowns, publics tensions are going to be high in the best of scenarios, let alone in Africa’s most populous country where many will struggle to follow restrictions. There are very real concerns for those most disadvantaged in Nigeria, such as those residing in slum areas or those who rely on informal trading to survive. Police and army officials, alongside vigilantes, need to be wary of this, to consistently and fairly apply these new, unforeseen restrictions. Communication with locals is imperative. Otherwise, there is a very real risk for security providers; not only when facing dissidents and rioters,