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NIGER DELTA

NIGER DELTA

Niger Delta Avengers end ceasefire Agreement

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Introduction Heightened tension in Niger Delta has serious implications for peace process initiated by Federal Government. On the 2nd of November, the Niger delta avengers (NDA) through its spokesman General Murdoch declared an end to the ceasefire agreement between the militant group and the FG. The NDA emerged in the Southern Nigeria’s Niger Delta and gained notoriety in February 2016. Its attacks on oil installations in Niger Delta region led to substantial disruptions in oil production in Nigeria. The immediate impact made by the group in 2016 comes to mind especially when its activities crippled the nation’s main economy; production of crude oil dropped to a record 22 year low. The NDA became a revolutionary umbrella for other new militant groups in the region though the frequency of their attacks showed more coordination and articulation of their mission. They were also more sophisticated than other emergent groups. Earlier in the year, security forces were deployed to the restive region to curb the militant activities in the state which later culminated into the Operation Delta Safe. Heightened presence of security and resurgence of militant actions makes civilian population in the region hostages between both forces. Militant activities have resurfaced this year with several reports of attack on law enforcement agents and hijack of boats, there has been no direct attack on oil installations since the start of the year. There was no militant attack in March, April and December. This is likely as a result of negotiations between the federal government and the militants. Further analysis shows that attacks by the NDA are not limited to Delta state as the group conducted strikes in Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa and Imo states. Though no attack has been made by the group in the South West region, there is a likelihood of its reach to the region. NDA claimed responsibility of a large number of militant attacks in 2016. Unlike the (NDJGM) whose attacks were confined to Delta states, the group attacked oil installations in Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Rivers states. Government Response Government response to the surge in NDA attacks in 2016 focused on a massive deployment of security forces with a mandate to seek out members of the militant groups. Heightened presence of security forces created wide apprehension in the region. The Federal Government launched the ”Operation Delta Safe” to tackle militancy, pipeline vandalism and illegal bunkering in the Niger Delta States. While the military were deployed to protect Nigeria’s oil installations, perceived invasions of communities only succeeded in stimulating local support for the militant group. What to expect An attack by the group may lead to disproportionate response from military which will trigger civilian protest in the region. There is a likelihood of emergence of other groups with similar interests, their own demands and attacks on oil facilities in the restive region. Renewed hostilities in the Niger Delta will affect foreign direct investment; no one wants to invest in unstable and uncertain region. This will exert enormous pressure on Nigeria’s economy. Timeline of NDA Attacks in Nigeria Feb 10: NDA blew up Bonny Soku Gas Export Line. Feb 13: NDA attacked SPDC underwater 48- inch crude oil export pipeline at Forcados Export Terminal in Delta state. Feb 19: NDA bombed the Clough Creek Tebidaba Agip pipeline manifold in Bayelsa State. May 4: NDA attacks a Chevron Valve Platform at Abiteye in Delta State. May 5: NDA launches a coordinated attack on Chevron’s Well D25 in Abiteye and blew up major pipelines in Delta state. May 13: NDA blew up Chevron pipeline and oil well near a military location in Makaraba in Delta state. May 20: NDA blew up NNPC’s Escravos Gas Pipeline in Delta state. May 22: A militant group attacked a crude oil pipeline belonging to Agip oil Company along the Azuzuama axis of the TebidabaBrass pipeline in Bayelsa state. May 25: NDA attacked a Chevron gas pipeline that provides electricity to the Escravos Tank Farm at Ciera creek in Delta. May 26: NDA blew up NNPC gas and crude trunk line in Warri, Delta state. May 27: NDA destroys the Nembe 1, 2 and 3 Brass to Bonny trunk lines belonging to Agip Oil Company and SPDC in Bayelsa state. Jun 1: NDA carried two coordinated attacks on Chevron’s Wells RMP 23 and RMP 24 at Dibi in Delta state. June 2: NDA bombed the Ogboinbiri to Tebidaba and the Clough Creek to Tebidaba crude oil pipelines in Bayelsa state. June 3: NDA blew up SPDC Forcados 48-inch export pipeline in Delta because the company went ahead with repairs against warnings by the militants. June 3: NDA blew up Brass to Tebidaba crude oil lines operated by SPDC and Italy’s ENI in Bayelsa state. June 8: NDA attacked Chevron operated RMP 20 well at Egbema in Delta state. June 10: NDA bombed the Obi Obi oil trunk line owned by Agip ENI in Bayelsa state. June 16: NDA bombed pipeline in Oruk Anam July 3: NDA bombed five oil pipelines in Abiteye NDA blew up pipeline in Ogbe-Ijoh July 4: NDA attacked Exxons Qua Iboe terminal July 18: NDA blasted oil pipeline belonging to Shell August 19: NDA destroyed pipeline in Oshimili September 23: NDA blasted pipeline in Bonny October 25: NDA destroyed offshore pipeline in Warri South November 8: NDA destroy pipeline near Warri November 15: NDA destroy oil pipeline in Nembe   Niger Delta Justice Greenland Mandate(NDJGM) Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)

NIGER DELTA

Why Niger Delta Militancy May Continue In 2017

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On the 31 December 2016, the Nigerian Army carried out an operation in four camps operated by cultists in Uju community, Ogba Egbema Ndoni Local Government Area, River State. They recovered one AK-47 assault rifle and uniforms belonging to DSP Mohammed Alkali and his police orderly, who were beheaded by cultists. Picture: Weapons recovered from the 31 Dec 2016 operation carried out on the Cultist camp in Uju Community, Ogba Ebema Ndoni LGA, Rivers State. Source: Vanguard The fact that cultists are still able to amass sophisticated military and law enforcement gear in bulk and pristine condition is disturbing. It is also indicative that the Rivers State Amnesty program for cultists and criminals may not have been entirely successful. Another worrying development is the fact that during the Rivers election, those accused of electoral violence were primarily law enforcement officials and some cultists. Picture: A cross section of arms, ammunitions and explosives recovered at the close of the Rivers State Amnesty Programme at the Government House, Port Harcourt in November 2016. Source: Today.ng The International Maritime Bureau released a report stating that maritime kidnapping had hit a ten year high in 2016. The Gulf of Guinea was a kidnap hotspot with attacks off the coast of Nigeria rising from 14 in 2015, to 36 in 2016. Proceeds from kidnap ransom are usually used to purchase more arms. Illicit trafficking especially arms and drugs trafficking are still issues the Nigerian government agencies have not been able to successfully tackle. Both illicit goods frequently find their way into the Niger Delta exacerbating militancy, kidnapping, cultism and other crimes in the region. Proceeds are again used to purchase more arms.   NIGER DELTA MILITANCY   The Niger Delta militants ceased fire and stopped attacking pipelines for most of the 4th quarter of 2016. According to the Urhobo militant faction NDGJM, pipeline attacks were ceased “for strategic reasons, as they were following the events in the region and monitoring developments in order to design their next line of action in the New Year.” The Ijaw militant faction NDA were also quiet for most of that time but resurfaced towards the end of 2016 in response to the 26 Dec 2016 interview in which President Buhari stated he was ready to dialogue with Niger Delta militants instead of fighting them. NDA responded accusing the FG of insincerity on resolving the Niger Delta crisis stating they were “not aware of who the President has been dialoguing with”. Finally, on the 6th January, Niger Delta Avengers released a statement on their website saying they were getting ready to launch twin operations to halt Nigeria’s oil production. This attack was in response to the insincerity of the federal government. While many Niger Delta militant groups make numerous threats without actually following through, these two groups, NDGJM and NDA have been known to carry out their threats. The threats made by NDA in their recent statement are especially audacious and ominous. Bulwark Intelligence analysts assess that the Niger Delta militants will once again resume their bombing activities on pipelines. It is still unclear whether or not the militant groups will start targeting and attacking oil & gas personnel and oil installations, but this is certainly a possibility. The challenge the FG will have in averting a resurgence is in first preventing the distribution of arms and weapons especially in the area of drug and arms trafficking. Second challenge the FG will have is in winning over the locals to aid them in stopping attacks. The relationship is not the best and the only way to win the war is to win the people. Niger Delta states at high security risk area. For more security, threat information on specific locations in the Niger Delta, send in an RFI request.

NIGER DELTA

Not All Niger Delta Militants Have Agreed to Cease Fire

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The militant group, Niger Delta Red Squad, operating in the Ohaji-Egbema axis of Imo State has bombed an Agip Petroleum pipeline at Uzo-Oru Ikwerede in Awarra community of Ohaji-Egbema council area of Imo state. Posting the attack on their Face book wall yesterday, the group warned Agip personnel to keep away from the pipeline as anybody found within the area would be beheaded. Analyst Comments: This group operates outside the core Niger Delta states, but have adopted the tactics of the Niger Delta militants in airing their grievances to the government. More of these styles of attacks should be expected across the Niger Delta until the government security forces are able to identify and neutralize the key players. The Nigerian military continues to carry out targeted military operations in the Niger Delta despite the ceasefire agreement. This is decidedly the best approach to apprehending criminals who are taking advantage of the chaos in the region. A new militant group called the Niger Delta Searchlight (NDS), has declared it will defy any ceasefire agreement reached with the Federal Government by other armed groups operating in the oil-rich region. The group stated that it is erroneous to assume all the bombings done in the Niger Delta was executed by the Niger Delta Avengers only. It explained: “We have allowed them claim responsibility for every operation to allow for cohesion and order in operation, but it has become obvious that they are compromised, given their choice of representatives”. They insist on having their own choice of leaders representing their cause on the negotiation table, not the “recycled Abuja politicians who are only using the struggle as an avenue to further appropriate the dividend of our struggles to themselves and their cronies to the detriment of the collective interest of the region.” Analyst Comments: Such groups and statements further highlight the deeply political and self-seeking nature of the Niger Delta militancy. It is hard to find a resounding solution in the region when the people themselves are deeply divided. The Federal government has approached the situation by engaging the foremost leaders and monarchs who still wield some level of influence among a sizeable chunk of the population. Although, monarchs are quickly losing the support and respect of the younger population who see the elders as self-serving hence the increase in criminal activity including kidnapping, armed robbery and homicide, directed towards them. Needless to say, approaching a resolution through the “monarch and elders” angle still remains the better option in the interim. NDGJM Pipeline Attack Despite the ceasefire deal between the Nigerian government and the Niger Delta Avengers, a militant group, the Niger Delta Greenland Justice Mandate (NDGJM), has said it destroyed the Ogor-Oteri major delivery line jointly operated by the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC) and Shoreline in Delta State. The Spokesman of the NDGJM, Gen. Aldo Agbalaja said: “At about 0300hrs of today Tuesday, August 30, 2016, the uproot team B of the NDGJM brought down the Ogor-Oteri major delivery line operated by NPDC/Shoreline. Good job boys.” Analyst Comments: The group claims it carried out these attacks because it lacks confidence in the Clark-led arrangement, saying “he is not the leader of the whole of Niger Delta, he can represent the Ijaw nation, but definitely not all the ethnic nations in the region.” It also cited the ongoing military operation as another reason for their attack. “We have once warned against the victimisation and harassment of defenseless people of the region, especially in the creeks, but rather than heed, the Nigerian military has increased its presence and made life more difficult for our people. They are now killing our people on the basis of mere suspicion. This can’t continue.” The group said as the military was launching its own “Operation Crocodile Smile”, it would launch its own “Operation Crocodile Tears.” It warned that henceforth, it would be an eye for an eye, and that for every military atrocity carried out in the creeks of the Niger Delta, the Nigerian armed forces would have the Niger Delta Greenland Justice Mandate to contend with. This NDGJM group is using the exact same strategy as the Niger Delta Avengers. On Friday 19th August, they brought down the major trunkline/delivery line operated by NPDC at 2a.m on Friday in Udu Local Government Area (Urhobo) of Delta State. By Saturday 20 August, they released a statement warning NPDC not to repair the pipeline. Analyst Comments: The militant group has stated that while it is not opposed to ongoing negotiations going on between the federal government, oil companies and the Ijaw elements in region, it was however not comfortable that it is going on with an impression that it is the whole of Niger Delta that is involved. Indicating that they are more than likely comprised of another ethnic group other than the primarily Ijaw NDA. Confused Militants Delaying Niger Delta Peace Agreements The Ministry of Petroleum has admitted what the ND militants have been complaining about which is the lack of action on the part of the federal government in proceeding with the ceasefire negotiations. However, the Ministry explained that this inaction is not as a result of confusion, but as a matter of caution. Group General Manager, Group Public Affairs Division, NNPC, Mr. Mohammed Garba-Deen, explained that “There is no confusion on the part of the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources. If anybody is confused, it is the militants that are confused because they are disorganised. They have refused to organise themselves into one, instead they have NDA, MEND and many others. So under this circumstance, the petroleum ministry is taking its time so that it does not negotiate with the wrong people. And that is not confusion. That is caution. The situation is causing concern and not confusion on our side, because we will like a situation where a credible and authentic group emerges. And whichever group emerges, it should have all the backing of those making agitations in the Niger Delta.” Analyst Comments: The concerns of the federal government are

NIGER DELTA

Niger Delta Avengers Announce Ceasefire, Now What?

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  Niger Delta Avengers announced a conditional ceasefire and agreed to hold talks with the Federal Government. Bulwark analysts read the statement from the NDA website and one thing immediately stood out. The writing style and language of the statement was uncharacteristic of typical NDA statements. This one did not include a single grammatical error which is usually expected in NDA posts. For example their last post on 18th August 2016, titled “Our Prayer for Buhari” had several grammatical errors below: Screenshot of blog post from Niger Delta Avengers website The “ceasefire post” on the other hand was impeccably written. Below is a screenshot. Note the care to use semicolons and even the correct use of punctuation in the Brig. Gen signature: Screenshot of ceasefire message posted by NDA on their website. After reading the report, it was deduced that it was more than likely written by possibly an elderly individual, very educated and highly knowledgeable about Nigerian history. For example, the writer mentioned the need for the Nigerian government to utilize frameworks and objectives included in reports such as the Kaiama Declaration, The Ogomudia report and so on. This is the sort of information that young militants should not necessarily be conversant of. This leads to a conclusion that the report was more than likely drafted by individuals involved in the negotiation process. NDA has not claimed responsibility for any pipeline attacks in the month of August, which indicates that back channel negotiations have been going on for quite some time. Attacks that did occur in the month of August were carried out by other groups and this is what the Nigerian government, South-South government and elders need to be concerned about. The threat of new groups forming and carrying out attacks because they see that doing so gets them an audience with the Federal government is going to be the new area of concern. NDA has been known to back out of ceasefire agreements before if they feel their conditions are not being met or if the military is still carrying out operations in the area. What typically happens is that the militants take the ceasefire period to recuperate and stock up on resources and explosives. As expected, we do not know the full terms that have been agreed upon with the NDA members, however, one thing all Nigerians can agree on is that the best way to bring about lasting peace is to bring genuine development to the Niger Delta.  For more information, visit www.bulwarkintelligence.com or email us at [email protected]  

NIGER DELTA

Niger Delta Avengers: Summary 16 May 2016

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The Niger Delta Avengers introduced themselves to the world in February 2016 after claiming responsibility for the attack of an underwater pipeline belonging to Shell forcing the company to shut down its Forcados export terminal for weeks. Four days after the attack, NDA stated that they will continue blowing up pipelines until the Niger Delta people were no longer marginalized. The NDA claimed responsibility for an attack on the underwater pipeline near Shell’s Forcados export terminal in Nigeria in February. The Forcados terminal has been shut since February’sa attack, preventing the export of 250,000 barrels of oil a day. Picture: Shell’s Forcados export terminal in Delta State, Nigeria. Courtesy of Google Earth   The NDA claimed responsibility for an attack on the underwater pipeline near Shell’s Forcados export terminal in Nigeria in February. The Forcados terminal has been shut since February’sa attack, preventing the export of 250,000 barrels of oil a day.   The ability to blow up an undersea pipeline shows that the group has access to sophisticated equipment and skilled personnel. This has made some experts speculate that the group may be getting help from sympathetic workers within the oil industry. Or are in possession of these equipment as a result of pipeline protection contracts given to ex-militants. NDA claim that their members comprise of fighters from the nine Niger Delta mandate states, unlike MEND which was centered on Ijaw areas. One prominent member of MEND was ex-militant Tompolo who has since distanced himself from all pipeline attacks. NDA took offense to Tompolo’s stance and demanded an apology. Tompolo’s refusal to apologize resulted in NDA attacking NNPC and Chevron pipelines on 4th May 2016, in Delta state. COMMUNICATION CHANNELS They frequently communicate through social media with their location tracker switched off via their twitter account, Facebook page and a website Domain provided by ‘Go Daddy’. On Thrusday 12 May 2016, the group sent emails to journalists stating that they will increase attacks unless oil firms shut down their operations and leave the region within two weeks. DOCTRINE/DEMANDS Some of the other demands the group has made from the President Muhammadu Buhari-led Federal Government include: Immediate implementation of the report of the 2014 National Conference otherwise, this country will break up forcefully; President Buhari, The DSS and Timipre Sylva should apologise to the people of the Niger Delta region and family of Late Chief DSP Alamieyesegha for killing him with intimidation and harassment because of his party affiliation; The ownership of oil blocks must reflect 60 per cent for the oil producing people and 40 per cent for the non-oil producing people; The only Nigerian Maritime University sited in the most appropriate and befitting place Okerenkoko must start the 2015/2016 academic session immediately; The minister of transportation, Mr Rotimi Amechi should apologise to the Ijaws and the entire Niger Delta people for his careless and reckless statement about the siting of the university; The Ogoniland and indeed all oil polluted lands in the Niger Delta must be cleaned up and compensation be paid to all oil producing communities; Mr Nnamdi Kanu, the Leader of IPOB must be released unconditionally as the court said; The Niger Delta Amnesty programme must be well funded and let it continue to run effectively; All APC members that are indicted in any corruption related cases should be made to face trial like the PDP members otherwise Buhari should shamefully forget about this nonsense anti-corruption fight; All oil multi-nationals and foreign investors should observe this ultimatum, as their business interest in the country must be first target The NDA said the demands must be met within a specific period of time before it would stop bombing oil and gas facilities in the Niger Delta region. GOVERNMENT SECURITY FORCES RESPONSE Nigerian security forces don’t have much intelligence about the group including its members, its size, bases of operation, weapons arsenal and so on. In an attempt to gather more information and apprehend the militants destroying pipelines the Nigerian military has invaded several villages around Gbaramatu part of Delta state which is the home to former militant leader Tompolo. But the heavy handed method in which the military is dealing with the members of the community, will certainly make it difficult for the public to come out and share helpful information with the security personnel. Instead, the Nigerian government will benefit from using more technical intelligence collection platforms to pinpoint possible locations of the militant group, monitor movements and identify possible saboteurs. For more detailed analysis (including graphs, maps, charts, geospatial and infographics) on Niger Delta Avengers, contact us. Email: [email protected]   Follow us on Twitter: @bulwark_intel

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