Bulwark Intelligence

SECURITY THREATS

CRIME, Nigeria, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

NIGERIA’S KIDNAP CRISIS: A PERSISTENT CHALLENGE

Introduction Kidnapping has become a pervasive and alarming issue in Nigeria, posing a significant threat to both national security and the safety of its citizens. Nigeria, the most populous nation in Africa, has long grappled with security challenges. While insurgency by groups like Boko Haram and communal conflicts have been significant concerns, the surge in kidnapping incidents has added a new layer of complexity to the nation’s security woes. Kidnapping has grown into a multi-faceted problem, affecting all regions of the country to varying degrees. Motivations Behind Kidnappings Kidnapping incidents in Nigeria are driven by a mix of economic, political, and social factors. This includes economic desperation and financial gain. High unemployment rates, poverty, and income inequality have pushed individuals towards criminal activities like kidnapping as a means of survival. Furthermore, criminal gangs and militias resort to kidnapping for ransom as a lucrative source of income. Victims, often targeted based on perceived affluence, are held captive until their families pay a substantial ransom. Weak Law Enforcement and Judicial System A lack of effective law enforcement and corruption within the security scene and judicial system has allowed kidnapping to thrive. Kidnappers often operate with impunity, and cases are frequently mishandled or go uninvestigated. Also, the lack of cooperation between security bodies has made sharing of intelligence difficult. The trend of Kidnap incidents from April to September 2023 (Q2 -Q3) Data Source: Bulwark Intelligence Database. The above line chart shows an estimated number of kidnapped victims from March – September of Q2 and Q3 of 2023. Analysis shows the North Central region recorded the highest number of kidnap victims in April while the North West region recorded the highest number of kidnapped victims from May through September. In Quarter 2 at least 528 people were kidnapped and an estimated 396 people were kidnapped in Quarter 3. However, the last Quarter is likely to see a rise in kidnap cases. This may not be unrelated to the upcoming festive period where crime rates are likely to increase. It should be noted that due to the problem of underreporting, some incidents may have been missed hence, the data used for the visualization and the statistics is an estimated number. Noteworthy kidnap incidents that occurred across the country in September 2023 19 people including a Seminarian were kidnapped by armed men in Sabon Kawu, Bwari Area Council, Abuja on 8 September. An estimated 50 locals were kidnapped by bandits who ambushed vehicles en route to Bagega village along the Anka-Baggega Road near Darita Forest, Anka LGA, Zamfartravelersn 9 September. 30 people were reportedly kidnapped by bandits who attacked farmland in Giyawa, Goronyo LGA, Sokoto State on 14 September. Approximately 14 travellers were kidnapped on 15 September by suspected Indigenous People of Biafra-Eastern Security Network (IPOB-ESN) members along Enugu-Nsukka Road, Opi, Nsukka LGA, Enugu State. On 22 September, more than 24 Federal University students were kidnapped by bandits from the Local campus accommodation, located in Sabon Gida village, Gusau LGA, Zamfara State. On 29 September, 25 people were kidnapped between Ipele junction and Ifon in the Ose Local Government Area of Ondo State. Conclusion Kidnapping in Nigeria represents a complex security challenge driven by a combination of economic, social, and political factors. Tackling this issue requires a multifaceted approach, including law enforcement reforms, economic empowerment, public awareness campaigns, and regional cooperation. With concerted efforts and a commitment to addressing the root causes, Nigeria can hope to reduce the incidence of kidnapping and enhance its security landscape.  

CRIME, CURATED OSINT, Ghana, INTELLIGENCE, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

ATTACKS ON BULLION VANS: A SECURITY ISSUE AFFECTING CASH TRANSPORTATION IN GHANA

Overview Last week, reports of a brazen daylight armed robbery attack on a bullion van at Ablekuma Fanmilk, a suburb of Accra in the Greater Accra region went viral across Ghana. The seemingly coordinated attack raises concerns about the security of transporting valuable assets- particularly for financial institutions, prioritizing the safety of police officers and the unregulated use of motorbikes which are often used to carry out these attacks. The Attack On the afternoon of 22nd June 2023, the bullion van made a stop at the Star Oil fuel station in Ablekuma to, supposedly collect cash. A gang of four robbers, riding motorcycles, intercepted the vehicle as it parked killing a police officer seated in the front passenger seat. A review of the CCTV footage, which has been circulating online, showed the attackers making away with two bags, presumably contained with money. In the aftermath of the incident, videos circulated widely on social media, capturing bystanders frantically assisting the injured officer out of the car however, he succumbed to his injuries. Responding to this distressing event, the Ghana Police Service declared a manhunt to apprehend the individuals responsible. Similar Robbery Attacks Over the past few years, there have been a string of robbery attacks on bullion vans across the country with a percentage of them resulting in the death or injury of police personnel. 4 attacks were recorded in the first half of 2021 alone. Here is a timeline of some incidents that garnered much media attention between 2021-2022.  January 2021- Robbers attacked a bullion van at Fomena in the Ashanti Region and carted away with GH¢500,000. The suspects killed a policeman during the attack. March 2021- Robbers attacked and assaulted the driver of a bullion van and stole money on Spintex Road in Accra. June 2021- Robbers opened fire on a bullion van at Adedenkpo, James Town, killing a police officer on escort duties and making away with an unspecified amount of money. A female bystander was also killed by a stray bullet, while the driver of the vehicle sustained injuries. June 2021- A bullion van was attacked at the Okyereko and Dominase section of the Winneba-Accra highway. Aside from the driver, the van was occupied by two policemen with an amount of ¢550,000 on board. February 2022- Police personnel foiled an attempted bullion van robbery at Industrial Area in Accra. Measures In light of the recent attack, the Association of Bullion Operators Ghana (ABOG) announced that effective 1st July 2023, there will be a complete cessation of the use of non-armoured vehicles for cash transportation purposes. But this isn’t the first time measures were taken in response to an such incident. Following the attack in June 2021, the Ghana Police Service expressed apprehension regarding the safety of its personnel. The concern stemmed from using inadequate bullion vans by banks to transport funds between locations. Mr James Oppong Boanuh, the then Inspector General of Police (IGP), conveyed a strong warning, indicating the potential withdrawal of police escorts assigned to bullion vans if the banks failed to procure armoured bullion vans by the end of June 2021.  Recommendations These incidents show the difficulties that organizations and security companies face while transporting valuable items. These incidents often have severe repercussions ranging from financial loss to reputational harm and psychological distress to victims of the attacks. These implications show the need for proactive security measures and adaptive security techniques.   Route Planning and Risk Assessments: To reduce predictability, companies and security firms must regularly analyze and adjust transportation routes. A thorough risk assessment of criminal hotspots and potential ambush points should be examined.   Reinforced Physical Security: All bullion vehicles must be outfitted with cutting-edge security technologies such as surveillance cameras, panic buttons, and bulletproofing. Unauthorized access to assets can be avoided by using secure containers with many layers of security.   Trained Personnel: Security personnel should undergo extensive training programs involving defensive driving, situational awareness, and effective response to potential threats. Regular drills and simulations can help them become more prepared.   Liaising with Law Enforcement: Collaboration is essential among businesses and law enforcement agencies. Regular information sharing, combined training exercises, and intelligence-driven operations can all help to strengthen overall security. Conclusion In the financial sector, cash handling and transportation, commonly referred to as cash-in-transit (CIT), are crucial hence the recent robbery attack, as well as the other attacks that preceded it, highlights the risks involved in transporting valuable assets. It’s imperative for financial institutions and security companies to take a holistic approach to address these issues through route planning, reinforcing physical security measures, personnel training and liaising with law enforcement.  The incident also serves as a reminder for the public to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activities to the appropriate authorities. 

CRIME, CURATED OSINT, INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria, Reports, SECURITY THREATS, Travel

ATTACK ON UNITED STATES EMBASSY STAFF IN ANAMBRA STATE, NIGERIA.

  Overview On Tuesday, May 16, an attack took place in the Amiyi/Eke Ochuche communities of Ogbaru Local Government Area, Anambra State, resulting in the death of four staff members of the United States Embassy in Nigeria. The attackers also set the bodies of the victims and their vehicles ablaze before fleeing the scene. The incident occurred during a medical outreach program, where residents were waiting to receive medical treatment from UNICEF officials when their vehicle was ambushed. Current Situation Attack Details: The assailants targeted the convoy of U.S. Consulate staff along the Atani-Osamale road. Two Police Mobile Force operatives and two staff members of the Consulate were killed in the attack. The attackers abducted two police operatives and the driver of the second vehicle.  Rescue/Recovery Operation: Joint security forces have launched a rescue/recovery operation in Ogbaru LGA to locate the perpetrators and apprehend them. The operation aims to ensure the safe recovery of any abducted individuals and restore security in the area. Security Forecast/Outlook Potential for Escalation: The attack on the United States Embassy staff highlights the potential for further acts of violence by extremist groups or criminal elements seeking to disrupt diplomatic activities and undermine security in the region. There is a possibility of retaliation or subsequent attacks targeting similar vulnerable targets. Response and Recommendations Heightened Security Measures: Embassies and Humanitarian outfits should review and enhance security protocols for its staff and facilities in Nigeria, considering the current threat landscape. This includes conducting regular risk assessments, implementing robust access control measures, and strengthening security training and awareness programs. Communication and Coordination: Improved communication and coordination between diplomatic missions, Nigerian authorities, and local security forces are essential to prevent such attacks and enhance security for all personnel involved in humanitarian missions. Situational Awareness: Diplomatic and Humanitarian Staff members should be reminded to maintain a high level of situational awareness, closely monitoring their surroundings and reporting any suspicious activities or individuals to local authorities and diplomatic or organization security department. Travel Security: Adequate travel security measures should be implemented, including pre-travel risk assessments, appropriate security escorts or support, and adherence to established travel protocols, especially in high-risk areas. Incident Response and Crisis Management: The Embassy should ensure that staff members are well-informed about incident response and crisis management procedures. Regular drills and training sessions can enhance their readiness to handle potential security incidents effectively. Conclusion The attack on United States Embassy staff in Anambra State highlights the importance of maintaining robust security measures and close collaboration with Nigerian authorities. The Embassy should continue working closely with local law enforcement agencies to bring the perpetrators to justice and prevent future incidents. Implementing the recommended security measures will help mitigate risks, safeguard the well-being of Embassy staff, and ensure the success of any humanitarian mission in Nigeria. The incident serves as a reminder for the public to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activities to the appropriate authorities. Heightened public awareness and engagement can act as a force multiplier in maintaining security and detecting potential threats.

CURATED OSINT, CYBER SECURITY, DEFENSE, GLOBAL SECURITY, INTELLIGENCE, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

WHAT NIGERIA SHOULD TAKE AWAY FROM THE U.S INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY’S ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT OF 2023

Every year, in response to the U.S.’ Intelligence Authorization Act, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) compiles a detailed report about worldwide threats to their country’s national security. The 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community came out, and I read through it to see if there was anything interesting as it pertains to Mother Africa, specifically Nigeria. Long story short, Nigeria was not mentioned, but West Africa was mentioned in a short paragraph on page 38 of 39, where they referenced regions and countries that will likely struggle with democracy and governance. It said regarding West Africa: “Across the continent, governments will face difficulties in meeting public demands amid food shortages, commodity price spikes, declining socioeconomic conditions, and the stresses of extreme weather events and insecurity. In addition, the prevalence of ageing autocrats, disruptions to fragile ethnic power balances, and protracted transitions from post-coup military regimes to civilian rule are likely to undermine prospects for stable governance in more than a dozen countries. In West Africa, a volatile mixture of democratic backsliding, states’ inability to provide security, and terrorist expansion will continue to threaten the region’s stability. The West African public has become disillusioned with how elected leaders have governed, particularly their failure to adhere to democratic governance norms and manipulation of institutions, which could lead to increased protests absent government reforms.“ DEMOCRACY IN JEOPARDY From that little excerpt, the I.C was already predicting that democratic rule in West Africa is going to be a challenge (cue in Nigeria). The inability to elect effective leaders due to institutional repression, coupled with ongoing insecurity and deteriorating socio-economic conditions, will likely lead to increased protests in the region, further threatening democratic governance fairly and justly. This is apt when you consider the recently concluded elections in Nigeria, which have left much of the populace disillusioned. INCREASE IN MILITARY CONFLICT There’s going to be an increasing military ramp up across the world. More countries will continue to invest in their militaries, which could increase the risk of conflict escalation. This is further exacerbated by the current war, coupled with the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has increased poverty, hindered economic growth, and widened inequality, raising the conditions that are ripe for domestic unrest, insurgencies, democratic backsliding, and authoritarianism. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT Climate change is going to pose a global threat that is going to keep affecting Africa through increased resource constraints, which are projected to grow, as well as an increased risk of conflict that will occur with the migration of people. It is going to affect the global economy, which will equally impact the continent. According to the report, “droughts in 2022 decreased shipping capacity and energy generation in China, Europe, and the United States, and insured losses from [weather] catastrophes have increased by 250 percent during the past 30 years”. Bottom line: We need to get our emergency and disaster management acts together. Scientific projections are depicting droughts and flooding in the coming year. We will need to ensure we have the right emergency response frameworks and resources to tackle this. CYBER THREAT: SURVEILLANCE AND SPYWARE Advanced intelligence and cybertools are now commercially available for more governments to use, including repressive ones. According to the report, “the commercial spyware industry—which makes tools that allow users to hack digital devices such as mobile telephones to surveil users—grew rapidly during the past decade and is now estimated to be worth $12 billion“. I always talk about the importance of investing in defense manufacturing capabilities so that our minds can develop these tools in-country, minimize importation, and instead export these capabilities and grow the economy. Well, cyber intelligence tools are a $12 billion industry. Africa needs to be developing some of these tools as well and getting in on the market. But I digress. These spyware tools aid mass technical surveillance, censorship, and spyware, which governments could use towards targeting oppositions and digital repression. In other words, the next time a digitally organized EndSARs like protest is about to spring up, the government will likely have greater capacity to squash it in cyberspace before it gains physical traction. In addition, these tools can also assist with influence operations aimed at shaping how the outside world views the government. This means an active genocide could be going on in a country, but people on the outside will only see videos of cute cats and puppies. These cyber tools could also be used in offensive capacities aimed at controlling the governance of another nation by creating social and political upheavals in some other countries to sway voters perceptions, perspectives, and preferences, which ultimately will allow them to elect officials that will shift policies in favour of the attacking government. CYBERTHREAT: RANSOMWARE Transnational ransomware attackers are improving their capabilities and will continue to execute high-impact ransomware attacks aimed at disrupting critical services and exposing sensitive data for the purpose of extorting funds. Governments worldwide are targets. The attacks are only going to get more sophisticated and persistent. Our cyber detection and response capabilities must be enhanced and continually upgraded as a matter of national security. TERRORISM ISIS West Africa will continue to pose a threat in the region. AQIM will continue to extort weak border security in west Africa, expand territorial control, and challenge local security forces. Terror groups keep using their Telegram network of channels, ‘Terrorgram’, to circumvent content moderation. CHINA IS NOT PLAYING The report was clear in its insinuation that China is no joke, and according to the U.S. Intelligence Community, it currently represents the biggest threat to the U.S. Reading through the document, you can quickly see why. China is making rapid gains on all fronts and across all sectors. INCREASING CHINESE MILITARY MIGHT Militarily, the PLA Navy and Air Force are already the largest in the region and continue to field advanced platforms rapidly. The I.C agreed that “the PLA Rocket Force’s (PLARF) short-, medium-, and intermediate-range conventional systems probably already can hold U.S.

CURATED OSINT, CYBER SECURITY, INTELLIGENCE, Reports, SECURITY THREATS, Technology

PART 2: NATIONAL SECURITY, CYBER RISKS, GEOPOLITICAL, CAREER, AND EDUCATIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-CHATGPT

The Geopolitical Upshots of Artificial Intelligence, ChatGPT ChatGPT seem to be engendering geopolitical competition between world powers. Ideally, ChatGPT should be accessible anywhere in the world with internet connectivity, but this is far from the reality. Some countries, especially authoritarian regimes such as  China, Russia, Afghanistan, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, implement censorship and surveillance to monitor internet usage and restrict the use of ChatGPT due to geopolitical and national security concerns. China leads the pack. Though not officially available in China, ChatGPT caused quite a stir there. Some users are able to access it using tools such as virtual private network (VPN) or third-party integrations into messaging apps such as WeChat to circumvent its censorship by the Chinese government. Japan’s Nikkei news service reported that Chinese tech giants, Tencent and Ant Group were told not to use ChatGPT services on their platforms, either directly or indirectly because there seem to be a growing alarm in Beijing over the AI-powered chatbot’s uncensored replies to user queries. Writing on Foreign Policy, Nicholas Welch and Jordan Schneider cited a recent writeup by Zhou Ting (dean of the School of Government and Public Affairs at the Communication University of China) and Pu Cheng (a Ph.D. student) who argued that, ‘’the dangers of AI chatbots include becoming a tool in cognitive warfare, prolonging international conflicts, damaging cybersecurity, and exacerbating global digital inequality. Zhou and Pu alluded to an unverified ChatGPT conversation in which the bot justified the United States shooting down a hypothetical Chinese civilian balloon floating over U.S. airspace yet answered that China should not shoot down such a balloon originating from the United States. According to Shawn Henry, Chief Security Officer of CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity firm, “China wants to be the No. 1 superpower in the world and they have been targeting U.S. technology, U.S. personal information. They’ve been doing electronic espionage for several decades now”. A report from the cybersecurity company Feroot, said TikTok App can collect and transfer your data even if you’ve never used App. “TikTok can be present on a website in pretty much any sector in the form of TikTok pixels/trackers. The pixels transfer the data to locations around the globe, including China and Russia, often before users have a chance to accept cookies or otherwise grant consent, the Feroot report said’’. The top three EU bodies – European Parliament, European Commission, and the EU Council, the United States, Denmark, Belgium, Canada, Taiwan, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, have all banned TikTok especially on government devices, citing cybersecurity concerns. New Zealand became the latest country on March 17 to announce the ban of TikTok on the phones of government lawmakers at the end of March 2023. Not to be outflanked, Chinese company, Baidu is set to release its own AI-powered chatbot. Another Chinese e-commerce platform, Alibaba is reportedly testing ChatGPT-style technology. Alibaba christened its artificial intelligence language model: DAMO (Discovery, Adventure, Momentum, and Outlook). Another Chinese e-commerce says its “ChatJD” will focus on retail and finance while TikTok has a generative AI text-to-image system. Education And Plagiarism In The Age of ChatGPT The advent of ChatGPT unnerved some universities and academics around the world. As an illustration, a 2,000-word essay written by ChatGPT, helped a student get the passing grade in the MBA exam at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Apart from the Wharton exam that ChatGPT passed with plausibly a B or B- grade, other advanced exams that the AI chatbot has passed so far include: all three parts of the United States medical licensing examination within a comfortable range. ChatGPT recently passed exams in four law school courses at the University of Minnesota. In total, the bot answered over 95 multiple choice questions and 12 essay questions that were blindly graded by professors. Ultimately, the professors gave ChatGPT a “low but passing grade in all four courses” approximately equivalent to a C+. ChatGPT passed a Stanford Medical School final in clinical reasoning with an overall score of 72%. ChatGPT-4 recently took other exams, including Uniform Bar Exam, Law School Admission Test (LSAT), Graduate Record Examinations (GRE), and the Advanced Placement (AP) exams. It aced aforesaid exams except English language and literature. ChatGPT may not always be a smarty-pants, it reportedly flunked the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) ‘exam’ used by the Indian government to recruit its top-tier officials. Thus, several schools in the United States, Australia, France, India, have banned ChatGPT software and other artificial intelligence tools on school network or computers, due to concerns about plagiarism and false information. Annie Chechitelli, Chief Product Officer for Turnitin, an academic integrity service used by educators in 140 countries, submits that Artificial Intelligence plagiarism presents a new challenge. In addition, Eric Wang, vice president for AI at Turnitin asserts that, ‘’[ChatGPT] tend to write in a very, very average way’’. “Humans all have idiosyncrasies. We all deviate from average one way or another. So, we are able to build detectors that look for cases where an entire document or entire passage is uncannily average.” Dr. LuPaulette Taylor who teaches high school English at an Oakland, California is one of the those concerned that ChatGPT could be used by students to do their homework hence undermining learning.  LuPaulette who has taught for the past 42 years, listed some skills that she worries could be eroded as a result of students having access to AI programs like ChatGPT. According to her, “The critical thinking that we all need as human beings, the creativity, and also the benefit of having done something yourself and saying, ‘I did that’’. To guard against plagiarism with ChatGPT, Turnitin recently successfully developed an AI writing detector that, in its lab, identifies 97 percent of ChatGPT and GPT3 authored writing, with a very low less than 1/100 false positive rate. Interestingly, a survey shows that teachers are actually using ChatGPT more than students. The study by the Walton Family Foundation found that within only two months of introduction, 51% of 1,000 K-12 teachers reported

CURATED OSINT, CYBER SECURITY, INTELLIGENCE, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

PART 1: NATIONAL SECURITY, CYBER RISKS, GEOPOLITICAL, CAREER, AND EDUCATIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-CHATGPT

Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines or computer systems that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. Similarly, ChatGPT (Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer) is an online artificial intelligence chatbot that is trained to have human-like conversations and generate detailed responses to queries or questions. ChatGPT became a blockbuster and a global sensation when it was released in November 2022. According to web traffic data from similarweb.com, OpenAI’s ChatGPT surpassed one billion page visits in February 2023, cementing its position as the fastest-growing App in history. In contrast, it took TikTok about nine months after its global launch to reach 100 million users, while Instagram took more than two years. Users of ChatGPT span the world, with the United States having the highest number of users, accounting for 15.73% of the total. India is second with 7.10%. China is 20th with 16.58%, Nigeria is 24th with 12.24% while South Africa is 41st with 12.63%, as at March 14, 2023. OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT is currently valued at about $29 billion. Feedback and reactions from academics, global and business leaders to artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT, is mixed.  The likes of Bill Gates agree that ChatGPT can free up time in workers lives by making employees more efficient. A research titled – ‘’Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence’’ – by two economics PhD candidates at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) attests that using ChatGPT made white collar work swifter with no sacrifice in quality and then made it easier to “improve work quickly”. Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, recently revealed that the opening part of his speech was written by artificial intelligence software -ChatGPT. Lately, Bill Gates and the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, were reportedly grilled by AI ChatGPT during an interview. Similarly, the United States Department of Defense (DoD) enlisted ChatGPT to write a press release about a new task force exploiting novel ways to forestall the threat of unmanned aerial systems. On the flip side, Elon Musk, is of the opinion that ‘’artificial intelligence is the real existential risk to humankind’‘. According to Musk,  ”artificial intelligence will outsmart humanity and overtake human civilization in less than five years’’. Theoretical physicist and one of Britain’s pre-eminent scientists, Professor Stephen Hawking, seem to agree with Elon Musk. He warned in in 2014 that artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race. In the words of Hawking, “Once humans develop artificial intelligence it would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate’’. He went further to asset that, ‘’Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superseded’’. Cybersecurity experts from the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), a branch of the United Kingdom’s Spy agency, Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), says artificially intelligent chatbots like ChatGPT pose a security threat because sensitive queries, including potentially user-identifiable information could be hacked or leaked. Underlying Principle And Modus Operandi of ChatGPT ChatGPT is essentially a large language model (LLM). A large language model, or LLM, is essentially a deep learning algorithm that can recognize, summarize, translate, predict, and generate text and other content based on knowledge gained from massive datasets. On March 14, 2023, OpenAI officially announced the launch of the large multimodal model GPT-4. A major difference between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 is that while GPT-3.5 is a text-to-text model, GPT-4 is more of a data-to-text model. Additionally, GPT-3.5 is limited to about 3,000-word responses, while GPT-4 can generate responses of more than 25,000 words and is more multilingual. GPT-4 is 82% less likely to respond to requests for disallowed content than its predecessor and scores 40% higher on certain tests of factuality. GPT-4 is also more multilingual and will let developers decide their AI’s style of tone and verbosity. Basically, Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained with massive amounts of data to accurately predict what word comes next in a sentence. To give an idea, ChatGPT model is said to have been trained using databases from the internet that included a massive 570GB of data sourced from books, Wikipedia, research articles, web texts, websites, other forms of content and writing on the internet. Approximately 300 billion words were reportedly fed into the system. This is equivalent to roughly 164,129 times the number of words in the entire Lord of the Rings series (including The Hobbit). Currently, ChatGPT has very limited knowledge of the world after 2021 hence is inept at answering questions about recent or real-time events. In addition to English language, ChatGPT understands 95 other languages spoken around the world including French, Spanish, German, and Chinese. Unfortunately, ChatGPT does not currently recognize any Nigerian local language. ChatGPT uses speech and text-t-speech technologies which means you can talk to it through your microphone and hear its responses with a voice. It is important to note that the ChatGPT model can become overwhelmed, generate incorrect information, repetitions or unusual combinations of words and phrases. This is because ‘’Large language models like ChatGPT are trained to generate text that is fluent and coherent, but they may not always be able to generate responses that are as nuanced or creative as those written by a human. A blog post by Dr. David Wilkinson, a lecturer at Oxford university and editor-in-chief of The Oxford Review, purports that ChatGPT appears to be making up academic references. In essence, Wilkinson counsels that just because it’s coming out of ChatGPT doesn’t mean it’s right. ‘’You need to be very careful about what you’re doing, particularly in academic circumstances, but also professional’’. How AI-Powered ChatGPT Sparked A Chatbot Arms Race After ChatGPT went viral, major tech companies around the world started scrambling to deploy generative artificial Intelligence. Sequel to speculations that the release of ChatGPT could disrupt and upend the search engine business, Google reportedly triggered a “code red”, summoning founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page back to the company. Soon after, Google launched an

CYBER SECURITY, INTELLIGENCE, Nigeria, POLITICS, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

CYBER SECURITY THREATS TO THE 2023 ELECTIONS

Most Nigerians are already tired of the elections, and it’s not even here yet. That being said, everyone is looking forward to election day so that we can all move on, and Naira can begin flowing again. But insecurity is one of those dreadful phenomena that could lead to INEC postponing the elections. There is a joint civil society group that meets regularly to evaluate election security and they are known as the Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Electoral Security (ICCES). A few months ago, the ICCES conducted an assessment and revealed that there were about 686 communities across Nigeria with high insecurity levels due to the activities of various Armed Non-State Actors, which were going to pose a problem for INEC effectively delivering election materials and eventually holding the elections in those areas. About 90% of those communities were based up north. Half of those were in the North West region alone, particularly in Zamfara state which has been hard hit by proscribed bandit groups considered as terrorists. The North Central also recorded a high chunk of insecure communities, as well as the South East particularly Imo, Anambra and Abia. The Bulwark Intelligence map below indicates areas that we are projecting will report levels of electoral attacks. Bulwark came up with their assessments using data from locations that have already reported significant pre-electoral violence, and also states that will likely show tension following the announcement of the election results. Despite the physical security threats, INEC insists that it is still going to go forward with the elections, and security agencies say they are going to do everything they can to prevent any form of violence on that day. CYBER SECURITY THREATS TO NIGERIA’S ELECTIONS The Electoral Act of 2022, ushered in the era of digitization for INEC. The reason is simple. The manual process was leading to significant interference and preventing a truly free and fair election. The introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) are supposed to help eliminate these risks. If all goes well, the issue of ballot stuffing, ballot snatching, results collation tampering, and voter fraud should be significantly reduced. But with increased dependence on technology, comes the requisite cyber security threats to INEC. The electoral commission mentioned that during the 2022 Ekiti and Osun elections, their portal experienced “significant cyber-attacks. But thankfully their engineers and cyber security teams were able to effectively respond”. There are interference threats of Disinformation and misinformation campaigns which are designed to influence the individual voter’s decision-making process, through intentional and unintentional dissemination of false information. There are also threats associated with deep fake videos which are doctored voiceover videos. This is particularly scary in places like Nigeria where wrong comments about tribe and religion could lead to physical violence and destruction. CYBER ATTACK THREATS ON INEC PORTALS AND TOOLS There are four notable tech portals and tools INEC has been using in these elections. There’s Basic Security in Election Duties (BaSED), an online security training portal for INEC personnel which allows INEC to train their over 1 million staff and ad-hoc personnel on election security awareness and what to do in case of security incidents. The other is the Election Logistics Management System (ELMS) which is an app INEC is using to track election materials procurement from storage to delivery. We’re talking about the movement of election materials to over 176,000 polling units across the country, which will be done using over 100,000 vehicles, and 4,200 boats escorted by the Navy. As you can imagine, the use of tech for logistics management is also a welcome development. The two external facing tools which have a high risk of cyber-attacks are BVAS and IReV. The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) helps ensure the voter is who he says he is. The upside is that it will reduce voter fraud and double dipping. But the downside is the biometric devices can act up causing delays and false negative errors which could prevent legitimate voters from being verified. The recently conducted BVAS mock testing and accreditation exercise revealed challenges with the internet network/server which is required for activation and configuration. Some remote locations experienced delays as a result. There were some reports of faulty BVAS devices. The hardware was faulty, and the fingerprint scanners were not working properly. INEC is also using the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV), which is supposed to ensure electronic transmission and viewing of results in near real-time. This is supposed to prevent cases of false results during collation or inconclusive results following interference by thugs at the polling unit. Again, the downside is going to be the internet network and the ability to upload the results. In addition, the availability of qualified personnel might be a challenge. INEC mentioned that during the Ekiti and Osun elections, there were cases of low-quality uploads because the officers who had been trained to do these uploads were not available or had to be substituted with others who had not been adequately trained for that role. INEC says they will ensure this doesn’t happen again, by deploying only adequately trained officers. SOLUTIONS It’s a little too late to advise on solutions right now since it’s almost game time. But one can only hope that INEC has already done significant levels of preparedness, especially in their ability to effectively detect attacks, respond to these attacks and quickly recover from the said attacks. Hopefully, they’ve conducted penetration tests and allowed independent ethical hackers to rigorously poke for vulnerabilities. PERSONAL SECURITY TIPS To be realistic, we are going to experience some levels of electoral violence, regardless of who wins or how many security agents are deployed to the streets. There are going to be paid thugs standing by to do the bidding of their political paymaster. There will be cases of voter intimidation, where people will be threatened to vote a specific way or experience the wrath of their local warlord. People are going to be upset with

CYBER SECURITY, GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, Nigeria, POLITICS, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

ELECTION SECURITY RISK ANALYSIS: HYBRID THREATS, EARLY WARNING SIGNS AND PROSPECTS OF A SEAMLESS POLITICAL TRANSITION IN NIGERIA – PART 3

Political Intolerance And The Risk of Election Violence in Nigeria The National Security Adviser (NSA), Babagana Monguno on Friday, November 11, 2022, stated that “rogues” are planning to disrupt the 2023 elections. Monguno said he was aware that in the last month, at least 52 cases of electoral violence were reported across 22 states in the country. Sequel to the NSA’s declaration, the British High Commissioner to Nigeria, Catriona Wendy Campbell Laing stated that, “When people feel intimidated, they can’t get out to vote, the election itself will not be credible, that is why the violence is of great concern”. On this note, she averred that the United Kingdom  will be watching closely any individual who acts violently or incites people through the social media and would not hesitate to impose visa sanction on such individuals. As a matter of fact, on Wednesday, the United States Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken went ahead to impose visa restrictions in his words, ‘’on specific individuals in Nigeria for undermining the democratic process in a recent Nigerian election’’. According to Blinken, ‘’additional persons who undermine the democratic process in Nigeria—including in the lead-up to, during, and following Nigeria’s 2023 elections—may be found ineligible for U.S. visas under this policy’’. The United Nations and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Tuesday, 17 January, 2023, warned Nigeria against violence in this year’s general elections. ‘’While the UN cautioned that if things go wrong in Nigeria, there would be serious consequences for the peace and stability of the entire region; the ECOWAS said if violence occurs in Nigeria, no other nation in the sub-region could accommodate Nigerian refugees’’. In new security advisories independently issued on Thursday, January 19, 2023, Australia, United Kingdom and the European Union, warned their citizens to reconsider their intending visits to Nigeria, avoid all political gatherings and election related sites in the lead up to, during and after the election due to the hostile “security climate” and threats preparatory to the 2023 general elections. Recall that in October 2022, the United States, UK, Canada, Germany, and Bulgaria issued terror alerts, warning their citizens in Nigeria to avoid shopping malls, religious centres, and hotels which they said could be targeted by terrorists. In its final report on the 2019 general election, the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room conservatively estimated that, ”At least, 626 people were killed between the start of the campaign in October 2018 and the final election in March 2019’’. In 2021, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded a 22% increase in the number of organized political violence events in Nigeria. The violence resulted in over 9,900 reported fatalities, nearly a 30% increase compared to 2020. Cybersecurity, Election Hacking And Interference Evidence abound that state-actors and cyber sleuths interfere with the electoral ecosystem. Their interference can range from one or a combination of information operations, disinformation, broadcasting deep-fake videos across social media platforms, to corrupting data, altering voter registration databases hence disentrancing or impeding citizens’ ability to vote, to attempting to tamper with the outcome of vote count, and undermining voters’ confidence on the legitimacy, integrity of an election. With an approximately 80 million Nigerians online, social media plays enormous role in Nigerian political space hence fake news, disinformation is a thriving industry in Nigeria. For instance, a British Broadcasting Corporation investigation discovered that ‘’political parties in Nigeria are secretly paying social media influencers to spread disinformation about their opponents ahead of the 2023 general elections. According to the BBC’s Global Disinformation Team, a politician acknowledged that in addition to dolling out gifts and promising contracts, nay, political appointments, his team paid a social media influencer up to 20 million Naira (about ($45,000; £37,000) for delivering a ‘result’. The modus operandi of their strategists entails planting fabricated stories through other micro-influencers aimed at eliciting emotions and misinforming people. Idayat Hassan, director at the Centre for Democracy and Development, says the activities of these influencers is tantamount to “political interference”. According to her, “It is undermining trust in democracy, undermining trust in the electoral system, and it is instigating conflict“. Election interference is not exclusive to Nigeria. The website of Ghana’s election commission was allegedly hit by a cyber-attack in 2016. The commission said an attempt to put up “fake results” failed. Also, in 2021, the German government warned Russia over a wave of cyberattacks – “combining conventional cyberattacks with disinformation and influence operations” on German politicians. Similarly, in a BBC report of 11 September 2020, tech giant, Microsoft sent word that hackers with ties to Russia, China and Iran targeted US and British political parties and tried to meddle in elections. According to a newly declassified US State Department cable, Russia covertly spent more than $300m since 2014 to try to influence politicians and other officials in more than two dozen countries. Similarly, two Iranian nationals were charged for cyber-enabled disinformation and threat campaign designed to influence the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In the just concluded 2022 Kenyan election, reports indicate that about 200 hacking attempts were made on election results, between Thursday, 11th August and Friday 12th August. Thus, it is not surprising that the Chairman of the INEC Boss, Professor Mahmoud Yakubu confirmed sometime in September 2022, that the Commission’s ‘’result viewing portal (IReV) during the gubernatorial elections in Ekiti and Osun states, experienced several cyberattacks from hackers across the world, some of them from Asia’’. I reckon that the risk and threat of election interference will be higher during Nigeria’s forthcoming presidential election. It behooves on the INEC to ramp up its cybersecurity defenses (including elimination of human error) and ensure that critical technological infrastructure such as its servers, the Result Viewing (IReV) web portal and the over 200,000 Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) that would be deployed across the 176,846 polling units across the country, for the 2023 general election, are not compromised by hackers. According to IBM Cyber Security Intelligence Index Report, human error (and I must add,

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, Nigeria, POLITICS, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

ELECTION SECURITY RISK ANALYSIS: HYBRID THREATS, EARLY WARNING SIGNS AND PROSPECTS OF A SEAMLESS POLITICAL TRANSITION IN NIGERIA – PART 2

Chances of seamless, simultaneous elections nationwide Citing anonymous intelligence shared about Nigeria’s election security by concerned civil society actors conversant with the undertaking of the Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Electoral Security (ICCES), THISDAY Newspaper revealed that, ‘the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may be under constraint to conduct 2023 elections in plausibly over 686 communities under the atrocious activities of armed non-state actors across the federation’’. According to the report, ‘’affected communities and wards cut across 90 local government areas (LGAs) and 18 states of the federation’’. Out of the 686 affected communities, 618 were identified in the north alone with 336 in the Northwest and 200 communities domiciled in Zamfara state. The implication of this is that Zamfara state is currently deemed as the most dangerous state in Nigeria. Similarly, in the Northeast, 168 communities were identified. Gombe is the only state that is comparatively safe in the Northeast while there are about 79 wards in Borno state where elections may not hold. Aforesaid report submits that it would be challenging to hold elections in about 114 wards in North-central Nigeria, largely in Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau. “In Southeastern Nigeria, 55 communities mainly in Abia, Anambra, and Imo state were referenced as red zones. The findings put the number of communities affected in the South-south at three, all located in Rivers State. THISDAY Newspaper report extrapolated that 90.1 per cent of the purported unsafe communities are domiciled in the north alone while 9.09 per cent representing 68 unsafe communities are in southern Nigeria. A purported policy brief by some northern governors to president Buhari, anticipates that elections may not hold in the North West states of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara in 2023, due to growing insecurity. For instance, data collated by Punch Newspaper as at December 18, 2022, estimated that no fewer than 50 offices and facilities of the Independent National Electoral Commission were attacked across 15 states in the past 4 years. However, data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), suggests aforesaid data might be a conservative estimate. According to ACLED’s December 2022 data, ‘’there have been more than 100 attacks associated with elections since the last elections in 2019’’. No fewer than 67 of such attacks were recorded on non-election days between January 2019 and December 2022. Gunmen on Monday, November 28, 2022, killed the women leader of the Labour Party (LP) in Kaura LGA of Kaduna State, Mrs. Victoria Chintex at her residence in Kaura, Kaduna. Suspected thugs on Monday, October 17, 2022, disrupted the campaign train of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Kaduna State. The campaign convoy of the presidential candidate of the PDP, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, was reportedly attacked in Maiduguri, Borno state, on November 9, 2022. States With High Risk of Election Manipulation, Voter Suppression An “Election Manipulation Risk Index EMRI”, a triangulated data developed by the International Press Centre and eight other organizations including Partners for Electoral Reform, The Albino Foundation, The Kukah Centre, Enough is Enough, Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development, SBM Intelligence, Dataphyte and YIAGA Africa, classified 22 states out of the 36 states in Nigeria as ‘’high risk’’ as it pertains to election manipulation. The states include Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Oyo, and Osun. Others are Ekiti, Kwara, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Kaduna, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto and Jigawa states. According to the EMRI report, 12 states with medium election manipulation risks include Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa, Benue, Kogi, Zamfara, Kebbi, Ogun, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa and Cross River while three states: Gombe, Ondo, and the Federal Capital Territory FCT, were classified as low risk. The EMRI report identifies indicators such as voter suppression, resistance against electoral technology like BVAS and IReV, political interference with INEC operations, administrative lapses, tampering with the voter register, and frivolous election litigations, as electoral risks that may potentially impugn the election integrity of the 2023 elections. Election Violence Heat Map: States To Watch Out For The situation in Lagos state pre, during and after the election promises to be dicey, unpredictable. Perhaps as a sign of things to come, the Campaign train of the Governorship Candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party – PDP in Lagos State, Dr. Abdulazeez Olajide Adediran (JANDOR) was reportedly attacked on Sunday, 23rd October, 2022 while his entourage were returning from a visitation to members of the party at the Ikoga Junction area of Badagry LGA. Similarly, on Tuesday, January 24, 2023, thugs attacked the convoy of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Lagos state, Abdul-Azeez Adediran (Jandor) in Kosofe LGA, stabbing a security officer. Also, Nollywood actress and PDP deputy governorship candidate in Lagos State Funke Akindele was on Tuesday, January 24, 2023, reportedly chased out of the Ikosi fruit market in Lagos by suspected thugs while campaigning. Supporters and thugs loyal to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) reportedly clashed and shot sporadically in the Aguda area of Surulere, Lagos, on Friday, January 27, 2023. Plausible election suppression and violence flashpoints in Lagos include: Oshodi-Isolo LGA (Ajao Estate, Mafoluku, Okota, Ago Palace Way, Oke-Afa, Ejigbo areas), Amuwo-Odofin (FESTAC, Satellite town), Surulere (Aguda, Ijesha), Mushin (Jandor’s neck-of-the-woods), Apapa (Olodi Apapa, Agegunle), Alimosho (the largest and most densely populated LGA in Lagos, nay, Nigeria). This prognosis is deduced from trends, open source intelligence (OSINT) and the fact that there is a high concentration of opposition supporters, non-locals in aforesaid areas. For instance, there was election violence specifically at Ago Palace Way during the February 2019 election as suspected thugs reportedly stormed a polling unit and set ablaze no fewer than 100 ballot boxes filled with election materials. It is not unexpected that the ruling party will attempt to rein in Jandor, the PDP and the Labour party in Mushin (where the PDP gubernatorial candidate hails from), and also Alimosho, said to be the largest and most densely populated local government area in Lagos. Note that the

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS, Nigeria, Reports, SECURITY THREATS

ELECTION SECURITY RISK ANALYSIS: HYBRID THREATS, EARLY WARNING SIGNS AND PROSPECTS OF A SEAMLESS POLITICAL TRANSITION IN NIGERIA – PART 1

Overview Barring unforeseen circumstances, Presidential and National Assembly elections in Nigeria will hold across 109 senatorial districts and 360 federal constituencies on Saturday, February 25, 2023. Similarly, gubernatorial and State Assembly elections is slated to take place two weeks after the presidential election in 28 states and 993 state constituencies on Saturday, March 11, 2023. Three off-cycle  governorship elections for Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi states, will hold same day, Saturday, 11 November, 2023. It is interesting to note that about 48 million out of the 93.5 million eligible voters in Nigeria are youths. The implication of this is that if majority of youths exercise their franchise, they might flip the outcome of the general election. Election can be likened warfare in Nigeria and the situation is not different preparatory to the 2023 general elections. If anything, the tension, uncertainty have escalated. Synonymous with every election season in Nigeria, governance is now relegated to the back seat while ethno-religious politicking, political brinkmanship, intolerance, gaslighting, dog-whistling, disinformation seems to have taken the front seat. This election security threat assessment was carried out using publicly available information (PAI), open source intelligence (OSINT) to glean and forecast likely multidimensional or hybrid election security threats in Nigeria such as internecine conflicts, cybersecurity challenges, logistics and legal issues that could hinder the 2023 general elections. Election Security, Election War-chest And Logistics Deployment With a whopping N305 billion budgeted to conduct the 2023 general elections, it promises be the most expensive election in the annals of Nigeria. Whereas Nigeria’s amended Section 88 of the Electoral Act pegs the maximum amount to be spent by a Presidential candidate to N5bn (approximately $12m), from the current N1bn (400 per cent increase), and 1 billion Naira for gubernatorial election, a former Presidential Spokesman reckons that in reality, “No Nigerian President in the last 20 years has spent less than $100m to be President”. Given the rate of inflation and depreciation of the Naira, the war chest could have ramped up to a staggering $300m. Tells how expensive politics, prosecuting an election is in Nigeria. The forthcoming 2023 general election also promises to be a security and logistics nightmare for the electoral commission, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) who obviously have no direct control over logistics and security. For instance, barely few weeks to the general election, the Independent National Electoral Commission says the lingering petrol scarcity could hamper the movement of election materials and election personnel. Apparently, the INEC relies on private transportation and transport unions such as the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), National Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO), Marine Workers’ Union (MWUN), to move electoral materials to the nook and cranny of the country. Similarly, the electoral Commission would rely on government security forces (GSF). The Nigerian Navy expected to help ferry election materials to riverine communities, the Nigerian Air force (NAF) will provide logistics support with its retrofitted C-130 Hercules aircraft amongst others. To this end, the INEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, revealed that 530,538 security agents, including policemen and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) personnel would be deployed to polling booths for the 2023 general election. Talking about logistics management, the INEC says the 2023 general elections will involve nationwide deployment of over one million personnel (including ad hoc staff), 100,000 vehicles, about 4,200 boats to be escorted by naval gunboats and massive quantities of materials to 774 LGA’s; 8,809 Electoral Wards and 176,846 polling units across the length and breadth of Nigeria. Technology will play a role in coordinating this massive logistics. In this light, he INEC says it established a ‘’Logistics Management System – Election Logistics Framework (ELF), which uses an android application and web dashboard to track election materials procurement through storage to delivery’’. Though the deployment of the Nigerian military as an election watchdog is a contentious and controversial issue, it appears the pervasive insecurity in Nigeria is an extenuating factor. As apprehension rises over the likelihood of holding elections in parts on Nigeria, the Chief of Defence Staff, Lt. General Lucky Irabor allayed fears and assured that the elections will indeed hold as scheduled. The Defence Headquarters confirmed it would deploy substantial troops to areas ravaged by terrorists, bandits, and gunmen to ensure the safety of electorates during the polls. According to the Director, Defence Information, Major General Jimmy Akpor, “Nobody is sleeping; we’ll continue to do our utmost and scale-up our operations, intelligence and physical, kinetic and non-kinetic activities to ensure that the environment is safe for socioeconomic activities’’. To this end, there’s likely to be massive military deployment in the entire southeast, including Imo, Anambra, Benue, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto state, amongst others, before the general elections. While they are at it, the military and other security agencies must be apolitical and desist from extrajudicial killing. It is commendable that the Inspector General of Police is distributing more than 1 million copies of the 36-page Nigeria Police Force handbook – “Revised Standard Operational Guidelines/Rules for Police Officers and Other Law Enforcement Agents on Election Security Duties” ahead of the 2023 General Election. Hopefully those that would be deployed for election duties will read and assimilate the spirit and letter of the standard operating procedure which spells out “crowd control, use of force and lethal weapon, escorting and protection of election materials, general conduct, procedure of arrest, dress and accoutrement, managing political parties’ convention and rallies”, amongst others. It is a welcome development that the police hierarchy has banned the deployment of quasi security outfits established by regional or state governments such as the Southwest Security Outfit called Amotekun, Ebubeagu et al from participating in election campaigns and other electoral processes. Despite Huge Spending on Security, Insecurity Is Nigeria’s Undoing Talking about money-spinning and sapping undertakings in Nigeria, (in)security tops the list. The Nigerian government has spent more than N8 trillion on defence budgets in the last seven years while additional N722.53 billion ($1.76 billion) was borrowed from the domestic capital market. This is in

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